20731 NE 4th Pl #104 · Ives Estates, FL 33179

$175,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 917 sqft · Condo public records · 48 Days on market

Built 1989 $582/mo HOA · 27% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great opportunity in the gated community of Carmel Lakes! This comfortable first-floor unit offers strong potential and long-term value. Located in a quiet enclave in the Ives Dairy area, you’re just minutes from major highways, shopping, dining, and public transportation. Inside, the unit offers a comfortable layout with an in-unit washer and dryer and a private screened balcony that expands your living space, perfect for relaxing. The community features beautifully maintained grounds, plenty of guest parking, and a resort-style pool just steps from your front door.

Key facts

• Guest parking
• First-floor unit
• Resort-style pool

Tags

• FIRST-FLOOR UNIT
• IN-UNIT WASHER AND DRYER
• PRIVATE SCREENED BALCONY
• GUEST PARKING
• RESORT-STYLE POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Pets allowed with restrictions or possible restrictions (conditional)
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee; Association fee covers common areas, structure maintenance, pool(s), roof, security, and trash; Association amenities include pool

Exterior

• Parking: Guest parking; Two or more parking spaces
• Security: Complex fenced; Key card entry; Phone entry
• Utilities: Community pool
• Home design: Attached property; 2 stories; Entry on level 1
• Construction: Block construction; Resale property
• Exterior features: Enclosed porch; Porch (screened)

Interior

• Kitchen: Disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: First-floor entry; Bedroom on main level
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-123 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $153k (12.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $153k (12.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.6% in Ives Estates — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#191 in FL, #3,061 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Miami-Dade (suburban): math 45% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #40 of 73 in FL (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 572 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,051 units permitted in Miami-Dade County in 2024 (7,758 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Miami-Dade County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($170k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $66k; list at $175k implies a 163% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 27% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $153,325 (12.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.45%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.00%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.22% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-41,643
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: -47.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.38×
• Total profit: $-67,484
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33179

• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 572
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,163 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$258 /mo · $3,102/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$582
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$454
• Net cashflow: $-123

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,318

Max offer price $153,325

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5100 SW 41st St Pembroke Park, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	815	$1,750	$2.15	19d	3	0.52mi
5100 SW 41st St Pembroke Park, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	815	$1,799	$2.21	3d	4	0.52mi
5525 SW 41st St Hollywood, FL	2.0	2.0	1031	$2,145	$2.08	3d	1	0.60mi
3856 SW 48th Ave #3856 Pembroke Park, FL	2.0	2.0	950	$2,150	$2.26	16d	1	0.66mi
3874 SW 48th Ave #3874 Pembroke Park, FL	2.0	2.0	950	$2,150	$2.26	7d	1	0.67mi
3842 SW 48th Ave Hollywood, FL	2.0	2.0	966	$2,000	$2.07	24d	1	0.68mi
3828 SW 48th Ave Unit D27 Hollywood, FL	2.0	2.0	950	$2,300	$2.42	24d	1	0.68mi
3826 SW 48th Ave Unit 3826 Pembroke Park, FL	2.0	2.0	950	$2,200	$2.32	15d	1	0.68mi
3826 SW 48th Ave Unit 3826 Pembroke Park, FL	2.0	2.0	950	$2,200	$2.32	5d	1	0.68mi
3838 SW 48th Ave Unit 3838 Pembroke Park, FL	2.0	2.0	966	$2,200	$2.28	24d	1	0.68mi
5440 SW 38th Ct West Park, FL	2.0	1.0	768	$1,900	$2.47	24d	1	0.70mi
5440 SW 38th Ct West Park, FL	2.0	1.0	768	$1,900	$2.47	7d	1	0.70mi
5460 SW 38th Ct West Park, FL	2.0	1.0	890	$2,350	$2.64	24d	1	0.71mi
5540 SW 38th Ct West Park, FL	2.0	1.0	768	$2,000	$2.60	10d	1	0.72mi
5721 SW 41st St West Park, FL	3.0	1.0	839	$2,650	$3.16	24d	1	0.72mi
3700 SW 52nd Ave Hollywood, FL	2.0	2.0	850	$1,446	$1.70	24d	1	0.75mi
5510 SW 38th St Unit 5510 West Park, FL	2.0	1.0	822	$2,250	$2.74	3d	1	0.76mi
5510 SW 38th St Unit 5510 West Park, FL	2.0	1.0	822	$2,250	$2.74	4d	1	0.76mi
5510 SW 38th St West Park, FL	2.0	1.0	855	$2,250	$2.63	2d	1	0.76mi
3721 SW 54th Ave West Park, FL	2.0	1.0	768	$2,100	$2.73	12d	1	0.78mi
5710 SW 38th St West Park, FL	2.0	1.0	835	$2,400	$2.87	24d	1	0.83mi
4141 SW 32nd Dr West Park, FL	3.0	1.0	1048	$2,700	$2.58	24d	1	0.97mi
4141 SW 32nd Dr West Park, FL	3.0	1.0	1048	$2,700	$2.58	7d	1	0.97mi
4628 SW 32nd Dr West Park, FL	3.0	1.0	1082	$2,800	$2.59	24d	1	1.07mi
5521 SW 34th St Unit 2 Pembroke Park, FL	2.0	1.0	692	$1,750	$2.53	24d	1	1.07mi
6112 SW 37th St Unit B Miramar, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$1,800	$2.12	22d	1	1.26mi
6033 SW 35th St Unit 101 Miramar, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,995	$2.00	24d	1	1.38mi
4030 SW 28th St West Park, FL	2.0	1.0	800	$2,400	$3.00	22d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $582 · $6,984/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingpoolsecurity
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 47 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 46 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 45 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $175,000 Active 43 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,000 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $175,000 Active 38 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $175,000 Active 37 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $175,000 Active 34 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $175,000 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $175,000 Active 32 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $175,000 Active 31 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 30 DOM
14. 2026-05-21
    price $175,000
15. 2026-05-01
    listed $180,000 Active
16. 2022-02-11
    price $1,950
17. 2001-02-05
    soldstatus $66,500
18. 2001-02-05
    soldstatus $66,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,102 · $258/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,102 · $258/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 10% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,951
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$3,102
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,076
• − Management: −$2,076
• − HOA: −$6,984
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$4,056
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$973
• After-tax cash flow: $-499/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Miami-Dade
• NCES district ID: 1200390
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,928
• Composite: 41.76/100
• National rank: #3397
• State rank: #40 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ives Estates

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #191
• US rank: #3061

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ives Estates, FL
• County: Miami-Dade County · 2,697,751 people
• City population: 51,591
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 51,591
• Household income: $65,211
• Rent vs Own: 43.3% rent · 56.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 3123.0

Population outlook (Miami-Dade County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,126,439 people
• By 2030: 3,325,765 · +6.4%
• By 2040: 3,697,561 · +18.3%
• By 2050: 4,012,134 · +28.3%
• By 2075: 4,605,612 · +47.3%
• By 2100: 4,866,598 · +55.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 39% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 23% White 19% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 6% Dominican 3% Salvadoran 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 13% Scotch-Irish 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 48% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 42% English-only · Spanish 37% French/Haitian/Cajun 13% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Miami-Dade

• 2024 margin: R (+11.4) · D 43.9% · R 55.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.6pp toward R · 2008: 16.1pp · 2024: -11.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.4 2020: D+7.3 2016: D+29.6 2012: D+23.7 2008: D+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -608.34%
• Current HPI: 328.1733
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.22%
• Metro: Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+163.2% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $175,000 MARMLS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $180,000 MARMLS
• 2022-02-11 Price Changed $1,950 RENT.
• 2001-02-05 Sold (Public Records) $66,500 Public Records
• 2001-02-05 Sold (Public Records) $66,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+14.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,102 · +498.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.