5122 Pecan Rd · Silver Springs Shores, FL 34472

$279,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,363 sqft · Land · 120 Days on market

Built 2026 10,454 sqft lot $205/sqft · 13% above area Est $247k · 13% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.8/30.0
• Appreciation +8.0/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• ARV discount +1.5/15.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Brand New 2026 Construction — No HOA — Move-In Ready in Ocala! Welcome home to this beautifully designed, spacious new construction built in 2026, perfectly located in the desirable Ocala area with NO HOA restrictions — giving you freedom, flexibility, and peace of mind. This stunning 3-bedroom, 2-bath residence showcases modern upgrades throughout, featuring an open-concept layout and a smart split floor plan designed for both privacy and entertaining. The gourmet kitchen is truly the heart of the home, complete with stainless steel appliances, granite countertops, and ample space for cooking, gathering, and everyday living. The luxurious primary suite offers elegant tray ceilings, a spa-inspired bathroom with ceramic tile finishes, a walk-in shower, and custom built-in shelving in the closets for optimal organization. Step outside to enjoy a covered back patio — perfect for relaxing, entertaining, or soaking in Florida’s beautiful sunshine year-round. An extra-long driveway provides additional parking and convenience for guests, recreational vehicles, or multiple cars.

Key facts

• Extra-long driveway
• New construction
• Gourmet kitchen

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION
• NO HOA
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• COVERED BACK PATIO
• EXTRA-LONG DRIVEWAY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-233 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $239k (14.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $179k (36.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $179k (36.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#527 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: crime C-, employment D, schools F.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 674 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (5.9% local appreciation)).
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 120 days — a 9% lower offer ($255k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $178,903 (36.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 120 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.30%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.56%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 13.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $247,152
• List price: $279,900
• Delta: 13.25%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

5.93% appreciation · 0.17% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.76×
• Total profit: $59,773
• Equity at exit: $174,765

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.28×
• Total profit: $178,461
• Equity at exit: $315,904

Cash invested: $78,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34472

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 674
• Price-to-rent: 13.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,789 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$62 /mo · $738/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$376
• Net cashflow: $-233

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,083

Max offer price $238,805

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-74	-5% $-153	+0% $-233	+5% $-312	+10% $-391
Rent	-10% $-374	-5% $-303	+0% $-233	+5% $-162	+10% $-91
Rate	-1.0pp $-92	-0.5pp $-161	base $-233	+0.5pp $-305	+1.0pp $-379

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,975
• Closing costs: $8,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
45 Redwood Run Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1435	$1,695	$1.18	21d	1	0.32mi
136 Hickory Course Loop Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$1,990	$1.09	14d	1	0.60mi
149 Hickory Course Cir Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1827	$2,100	$1.15	14d	1	0.61mi
492 Hickory Course Loop Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1483	$1,750	$1.18	21d	1	0.66mi
13 Redwood Trace Ln Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1337	$1,595	$1.19	21d	1	0.67mi
7044 Hemlock Crse Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1270	$1,897	$1.49	14d	1	0.74mi
6875 SE 52nd St Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1624	$1,750	$1.08	21d	1	0.80mi
106 Redwood Track Crse Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1412	$1,675	$1.19	14d	1	0.87mi
308 Hickory Course Radl Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1397	$1,650	$1.18	21d	1	0.90mi
5614 Pecan Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1337	$1,595	$1.19	21d	1	0.92mi
96 Redwood Rd Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1188	$1,650	$1.39	14d	1	0.92mi
19 Pecan Pass Ter Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1368	$1,750	$1.28	21d	1	0.95mi
36 Pecan Run Crse Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1188	$1,850	$1.56	14d	1	0.97mi
7215 Midway Ter Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	975	$1,175	$1.21	21d	1	1.09mi
7184 Hemlock Loop Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1392	$1,675	$1.20	21d	1	1.20mi
7455 Midway Ter Unit K Ocala, FL	2.0	1.0	904	$1,249	$1.38	21d	1	1.33mi
43 Bahia Pass Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1188	$1,475	$1.24	21d	1	1.34mi
162 Bahia Terrace Dr Ocala, FL	2.0	2.0	984	$1,375	$1.40	21d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $279,900 Active 120 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $279,900 Active 119 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $279,900 Active 118 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $279,900 Active 117 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $279,900 Active 115 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $279,900 Active 114 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $279,900 Active 112 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $279,900 Active 111 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $279,900 Active 110 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $279,900 Active 109 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $279,900 Active 105 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $279,900 Active 104 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $279,900 Active 103 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $279,900 Active 102 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $279,900 Active 101 DOM
16. 2026-02-18
    listed $279,900 Active 1118-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1118 chars)

    Brand New 2026 Construction — No HOA — Move-In Ready in Ocala! Welcome home to this beautifully designed, spacious new construction built in 2026, perfectly located in the desirable Ocala area with NO HOA restrictions — giving you freedom, flexibility, and peace of mind. This stunning 3-bedroom, 2-bath residence showcases modern upgrades throughout, featuring an open-concept layout and a smart split floor plan designed for both privacy and entertaining. The gourmet kitchen is truly the heart of the home, complete with stainless steel appliances, granite countertops, and ample space for cooking, gathering, and everyday living. The luxurious primary suite offers elegant tray ceilings, a spa-inspired bathroom with ceramic tile finishes, a walk-in shower, and custom built-in shelving in the closets for optimal organization. Step outside to enjoy a covered back patio — perfect for relaxing, entertaining, or soaking in Florida’s beautiful sunshine year-round. An extra-long driveway provides additional parking and convenience for guests, recreational vehicles, or multiple cars.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $738 · $62/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,323 · $194/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,585/yr (+$132/mo · 214.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,468
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,679
• − Property taxes: −$738
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,717
• − Management: −$1,717
• − Depreciation: −$8,143
• Taxable loss: −$7,925
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,902
• After-tax cash flow: $-889/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Silver Springs Shores

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #527
• US rank: #9854

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Silver Springs Shores, FL
• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• City population: 34,665
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,851
• Household income: $64,208
• Rent vs Own: 19.9% rent · 80.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 655.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 25% Black 21% Two or more races 18% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 14% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Iranian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 19% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.93%
• Current HPI: 255.0714
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.17%
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-18 Listed $279,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+18.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $738 · +80.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.