8617 Marlin Pl #16 · Upper Grand Lagoon, FL 32408

$315,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,536 sqft · SingleFamily · 95 Days on market

Built 2015 2,134 sqft lot $205/sqft · 21% below area Est $399k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Recently reduced and priced to move, 8617 Marlin Place offers an incredible opportunity to own in a private gated community in Panama City Beach. Built in 2015 and freshly updated with new interior paint, this charming 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath home combines low-maintenance living with a highly convenient location just minutes from the beach, St. Andrews State Park, and Naval Support Activity Panama City. The thoughtfully designed floor plan features the primary bedroom on the first floor with a walk-in closet and private bath, while the open main living area offers 9-foot ceilings and an airy, welcoming feel. The kitchen is beautifully finished with Carrera marble countertops, white shaker cabinetry with crown molding and glass accents, and stainless steel appliances. Upstairs you'll find two additional bedrooms, including one with access to a private balcony perfect for relaxing and enjoying the coastal breeze. Located within a quiet 24-unit gated community with a pool, this home also includes a private gated storage area. HOA dues cover lawn care, pool maintenance, trash service, and gate access, making ownership simple and stress-free. With its attractive new price, move-in ready condition, and desirable PCB location, this home stands out as one of the better values currently on the market.

Key facts

• Community pool
• Walk-in closet
• Private bath

Tags

• PRIVATE GATED COMMUNITY
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• PRIVATE BATH
• CARRERA MARBLE COUNTERTOPS
• SOLID WHITE SHAKER CABINETRY
• COMMUNITY POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-304 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $271k (14.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $237k (24.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $237k (24.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.2% in Upper Grand Lagoon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#583 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Breakfast Point Academy (math 62% / reading 57%, grade B-, #690 of 2,144 statewide, top 34%, 1,058 students, 47% FRL); J.R. Arnold High School (math 41% / reading 54%, grade D, #204 of 667 statewide, top 31%, 1,617 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 1032 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 95 days — a 9% lower offer ($287k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $170k; list at $315k implies a 85% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $237,032 (24.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 95 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.14%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $398,863
• List price: $315,000
• Delta: -21.03%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8615 Marlin Pl	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,536 (0%)	1mo	$268,000	$174	99
8611 Marlin Pl	0.01mi	3/2.5	1,512 (-2%)	2mo	$267,500	$177	96
8645 Marlin Pl	0.06mi	3/2.5	1,458 (-5%)	3mo	$262,000	$180	86
8437 Warner Pl	0.10mi	3/2.5	1,647 (+7%)	2mo	$400,000	$243	82
609 Sabal Palm Way	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,526 (-1%)	9mo	$415,000	$272	67
8911 Laird St	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,594 (+4%)	13mo	$404,000	$253	66
198 Laird Cir	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,613 (+5%)	13mo	$485,000	$301	60
218 Hidden Pines Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,622 (+6%)	0mo	$385,375	$238	58
149 Sandollar Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,412 (-8%)	6mo	$375,000	$266	57
9129 Abba Ln	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,468 (-4%)	0mo	$420,000	$286	56
3116 Laurie Ave	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,594 (+4%)	6mo	$485,000	$304	56
1840 Annabellas Dr	0.58mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,404 (-9%)	2mo	$190,000	$135	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.55% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-71,460
• Equity at exit: $46,968

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.04×
• Total profit: $-91,385
• Equity at exit: $27,235

Cash invested: $88,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32408

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 1032
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,370 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$394 /mo · $4,725/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$498
• Net cashflow: $-304

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,756

Max offer price $270,961

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-87	-5% $-195	+0% $-304	+5% $-413	+10% $-522
Rent	-10% $-492	-5% $-398	+0% $-304	+5% $-211	+10% $-117
Rate	-1.0pp $-146	-0.5pp $-224	base $-304	+0.5pp $-386	+1.0pp $-469

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,750
• Closing costs: $9,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8604 Whelch Dr Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1087	$2,950	$2.71	15d	18	0.15mi
8700 Front Beach Rd Panama City Beach, FL	2.0–3.0	2.5	1543	$2,400	$1.56	15d	2	0.35mi
140 Treasure Palm Dr Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1564	$2,350	$1.50	23d	1	0.39mi
1744 Annabellas Dr Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	1578	$2,100	$1.33	15d	1	0.49mi
8551 Panama City Beach Pkwy Panama City Beach, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	964	$2,184	$2.26	15d	12	0.50mi
1734 Annabellas Dr Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	1578	$2,100	$1.33	23d	1	0.51mi
1609 Vecuna Cir Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1268	$2,100	$1.66	15d	1	0.53mi
1846 Annabellas Dr Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.5	1404	$1,850	$1.32	23d	1	0.55mi
2195 Wilkinson St Panama City, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1017	$2,355	$2.31	15d	41	0.60mi
2110 Sterling Cove Blvd Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	1156	$1,800	$1.56	23d	1	0.63mi
2917 Allison Ave Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1592	$1,700	$1.07	23d	1	0.67mi
2148 Sterling Cove Blvd Unit 1 Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	1.5	1152	$1,695	$1.47	23d	1	0.70mi
8623 N Lagoon Dr Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.5	1600	$2,350	$1.47	23d	1	0.89mi
2858 Joan Ave Unit 1523343P Panama City, FL	4.0	3.0	1754	$5,270	$3.00	15d	1	0.91mi
7110 London St Panama City Beach, FL	2.0–3.0	2.5	1419	$2,157	$1.52	15d	6	0.99mi
7682 Shadow Lake Dr Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	1496	$1,875	$1.25	23d	1	1.02mi
7664 Shadow Lake Dr Unit 1523352P Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1539	$3,210	$2.09	15d	1	1.04mi
8715 Surf Dr Unit 1523323P Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1194	$5,377	$4.50	15d	1	1.09mi
204 Potters Bluff Dr Panama City Beach, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1035	$1,947	$1.88	15d	12	1.31mi
7813 N Lagoon Dr Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	1060	$1,900	$1.79	23d	1	1.36mi
7405A Beach Dr Unit 1355031P Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1291	$2,124	$1.65	23d	1	1.38mi
9902 S Thomas Dr Unit 1354966P Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1259	$1,970	$1.56	15d	1	1.39mi
9815 S Thomas Dr Unit 1523339P Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1259	$4,018	$3.19	23d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $315,000 Active 95 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $315,000 Active 93 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $315,000 Active 92 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $315,000 Active 91 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $315,000 Active 90 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $315,000 Active 89 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $315,000 Active 87 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $315,000 Active 86 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $315,000 Active 84 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $315,000 Active 83 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $315,000 Active 82 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $315,000 Active 81 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $315,000 Active 78 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $315,000 Active 77 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $315,000 Active 76 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $315,000 Active 75 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $315,000 Active 74 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $315,000 Active 73 DOM
19. 2026-05-15
    price $315,000 1309-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1309 chars)

    Recently reduced and priced to move, 8617 Marlin Place offers an incredible opportunity to own in a private gated community in Panama City Beach. Built in 2015 and freshly updated with new interior paint, this charming 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath home combines low-maintenance living with a highly convenient location just minutes from the beach, St. Andrews State Park, and Naval Support Activity Panama City. The thoughtfully designed floor plan features the primary bedroom on the first floor with a walk-in closet and private bath, while the open main living area offers 9-foot ceilings and an airy, welcoming feel. The kitchen is beautifully finished with Carrera marble countertops, white shaker cabinetry with crown molding and glass accents, and stainless steel appliances. Upstairs you'll find two additional bedrooms, including one with access to a private balcony perfect for relaxing and enjoying the coastal breeze. Located within a quiet 24-unit gated community with a pool, this home also includes a private gated storage area. HOA dues cover lawn care, pool maintenance, trash service, and gate access, making ownership simple and stress-free. With its attractive new price, move-in ready condition, and desirable PCB location, this home stands out as one of the better values currently on the market.

20. 2026-03-13
    listed $320,000 Active 1309-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1309 chars)

    Recently reduced and priced to move, 8617 Marlin Place offers an incredible opportunity to own in a private gated community in Panama City Beach. Built in 2015 and freshly updated with new interior paint, this charming 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath home combines low-maintenance living with a highly convenient location just minutes from the beach, St. Andrews State Park, and Naval Support Activity Panama City. The thoughtfully designed floor plan features the primary bedroom on the first floor with a walk-in closet and private bath, while the open main living area offers 9-foot ceilings and an airy, welcoming feel. The kitchen is beautifully finished with Carrera marble countertops, white shaker cabinetry with crown molding and glass accents, and stainless steel appliances. Upstairs you'll find two additional bedrooms, including one with access to a private balcony perfect for relaxing and enjoying the coastal breeze. Located within a quiet 24-unit gated community with a pool, this home also includes a private gated storage area. HOA dues cover lawn care, pool maintenance, trash service, and gate access, making ownership simple and stress-free. With its attractive new price, move-in ready condition, and desirable PCB location, this home stands out as one of the better values currently on the market.

21. 2015-03-30
    soldstatus $169,900 802-char remark

    Show marketing remark (802 chars)

    Charming Cottage style Brand New 2 story home in Gated community. Master bedroom on first floor. 3 Bedrooms/2 1/2 baths. Community pool in a 24 unit complex. Located very conveniently to the Navy Base, St. Andrews State Park and the worlds most beautiful beaches! This home is a most see. Master bedroom has its own full bath with full tile shower and glass shower door, and walk-in closet. Home features 9 foot ceilings, upgraded Fridgadaire Gallery Stainless appliances with side by side refrigerator, carerra marble countertops. Solid white shaker wood cabinets with glass door and crown molding. Each unit has a gated area for a large private storage space. Dead end street, Very close to beach and Front Beach Road. Home owners dues include lawn care, pool maintenance, garbage and security gate.

22. 2015-02-11
    listed $169,900 802-char remark

    Show marketing remark (802 chars)

    Charming Cottage style Brand New 2 story home in Gated community. Master bedroom on first floor. 3 Bedrooms/2 1/2 baths. Community pool in a 24 unit complex. Located very conveniently to the Navy Base, St. Andrews State Park and the worlds most beautiful beaches! This home is a most see. Master bedroom has its own full bath with full tile shower and glass shower door, and walk-in closet. Home features 9 foot ceilings, upgraded Fridgadaire Gallery Stainless appliances with side by side refrigerator, carerra marble countertops. Solid white shaker wood cabinets with glass door and crown molding. Each unit has a gated area for a large private storage space. Dead end street, Very close to beach and Front Beach Road. Home owners dues include lawn care, pool maintenance, garbage and security gate.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,444
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,645
• − Property taxes: −$4,725
• − Insurance: −$1,575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,276
• − Management: −$2,276
• − Depreciation: −$9,164
• Taxable loss: −$9,216
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,212
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,440/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Upper Grand Lagoon

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #583
• US rank: #11085

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Upper Grand Lagoon, FL
• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• City population: 18,326
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 18,832
• Household income: $80,822
• Rent vs Own: 37.0% rent · 63.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 817.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Black 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -202.52%
• Current HPI: 246.9126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.55%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+85.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $315,000 CPARMLS
• 2026-03-13 Listed $320,000 CPARMLS
• 2015-03-30 Sold (MLS) $169,900 CPARMLS
• 2015-02-11 Listed $169,900 CPARMLS