121 CR 2201 · Leary, TX 75561

$45,000

1 bd · None ba · 400 sqft · SingleFamily · 281 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition 0.25 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover your perfect escape on this serene 0.25-acre property, surrounded by the beauty of mature oak trees. Tucked away in a quiet neighborhood, this peaceful retreat features a small main cabin with a large deck—ideal for relaxing, entertaining, or simply enjoying the fresh air. A second smaller shed with electricity provides extra space for hobbies, or tools. The property also includes a handy storage shed and a carport for convenience. Whether you’re looking for a weekend getaway, a tiny home or an investment, this charming cabin retreat offers the necessities and tranquility. Nice driveway and entry.

Key facts

• Large deck
• Smaller shed
• Mature oak trees

Tags

• 0.25-ACRE PROPERTY
• MATURE OAK TREES
• QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD
• MAIN CABIN
• LARGE DECK
• SMALLER SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/?-bath single-family listed at $45k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $285 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($755 rent vs $45k).
• Recommended offer: $40k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#776 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Leary ISD (rural): math 20% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #1,006 of 1,141 in TX (top 88%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 65 active listings in the ZIP; 137 units permitted in Bowie County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $311 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $13k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 281 days — a 12% lower offer ($40k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $39,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 281 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.68% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.15%
• DSCR: 2.21
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.86×
• Total profit: $10,878
• Equity at exit: $6,710

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.61×
• Total profit: $32,900
• Equity at exit: $3,891

Cash invested: $12,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75561

• Home prices YoY: -8.4%
• Active inventory: 65
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $755 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$236
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$56 /mo · $675/yr
• Insurance: −$19
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$158
• Net cashflow: $285

Break-even live

Break-even rent $394

Max offer price $45,000

Occupancy floor 57%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,250
• Closing costs: $1,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $45,000 Active 281 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $45,000 Active 280 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $45,000 Active 279 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $45,000 Active 278 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $45,000 Active 277 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $45,000 Active 275 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $45,000 Active 274 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $45,000 Active 272 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $45,000 Active 271 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $45,000 Active 270 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $45,000 Active 269 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $45,000 Active 266 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $45,000 Active 265 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $45,000 Active 264 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $45,000 Active 263 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $45,000 Active 262 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $45,000 Active 261 DOM
18. 2025-09-10
    listed $45,000 Active 626-char remark

    Show marketing remark (626 chars)

    Discover your perfect escape on this serene 0.25-acre property, surrounded by the beauty of mature oak trees. Tucked away in a quiet neighborhood, this peaceful retreat features a small main cabin with a large deck—ideal for relaxing, entertaining, or simply enjoying the fresh air. A second smaller shed with electricity provides extra space for hobbies, or tools. The property also includes a handy storage shed and a carport for convenience. Whether you’re looking for a weekend getaway, a tiny home or an investment, this charming cabin retreat offers the necessities and tranquility. Nice driveway and entry.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 23% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,054
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,521
• − Property taxes: −$675
• − Insurance: −$225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$724
• − Management: −$724
• − Depreciation: −$1,309
• Taxable income: $2,876
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$690
• After-tax cash flow: $2,731/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 11 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This charming cabin retreat offers a serene and peaceful environment with a well-maintained exterior and interior. Minor landscaping and painting improvements can further enhance its curb appeal and add value for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value for both resale and rental
• Both Painting exterior — Fresh paint can improve the home's appearance and add value
• Both Landscaping and garden beds — Well-maintained landscaping and garden beds can enhance curb appeal and add value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value for both resale and rental ↑
• Both Painting exterior — Fresh paint can improve the home's appearance and add value ↑
• Both Landscaping and garden beds — Well-maintained landscaping and garden beds can enhance curb appeal and add value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Leary ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827060
• Math proficiency: 20% ▲ 10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,347
• Composite: 28.56/100
• National rank: #12074
• State rank: #1006 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Leary

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #776
• US rank: #14128

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,954

Population outlook (Bowie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 94,699 people
• By 2030: 94,824 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 94,870 · +0.2%
• By 2050: 93,686 · -1.1%
• By 2075: 90,082 · -4.9%
• By 2100: 76,579 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Black 16% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% European 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Bowie

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.7) · D 25.3% · R 74.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.8pp toward R · 2008: -37.9pp · 2024: -48.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.7 2020: R+42.8 2016: R+46.6 2012: R+41.5 2008: R+37.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -14.29%
• Current HPI: 154.9243
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-09-10 Listed $45,000 NTREIS