Pecan Plan · Texas City, TX 77568

$263,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,570 sqft · SingleFamily · 541 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.8/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

With enough space for the whole family, the Pecan floor plan will not disappoint. Upon entering your new home, you are greeted by a foyer area that is equipped with your convenient utility room, storage closet, and an entrance to your two-car garage. Needing more storage for tools, holiday decorations, or another car? Decide to upgrade to a two-and-a-half-car garage or even a three-car garage! Travel down the hallway where you are met with your expansive family room and dining room combination - perfect for entertaining guests for dinner parties, holidays, or any other occasion! Right off the living room lies your secondary and third bedrooms with the full secondary bathroom residing in between the two bedrooms. Past the dining area is your spacious kitchen area complete with access to your pantry, and contains sleek granite countertops, flat-panel birch cabinets, industry-leading appliances, and designer light fixtures that is sure to please any eye! Leading from the kitchen is access to your backyard with the option to include an extensive covered patio for you to enjoy backyard barbecues on. When it's time to rest, head over to your private master suite. Your master bathroom boasts cultured marble countertops, a large super shower, and a huge walk-in closet! The Pecan plan is perfect for most any lifestyle, no matter what phase of life you are in. Each CastleRock home is Energy Star Certified and is built with energy-efficient features that help keep you comfortable. ..

Key facts

• Storage closet
• Powder room
• Two car garage

Tags

• FOYER AREA
• POWDER ROOM
• STORAGE CLOSET
• TWO CAR GARAGE
• EXPANSIVE FAMILY ROOM
• DINING ROOM COMBINATION

🏗️ New construction. The $263,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $359,129.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $264k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-721 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $255k (3.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $223k (15.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $223k (15.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#907 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Dickinson ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #366 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hughes Road El (math 36% / reading 31%, grade F, #2,174 of 4,322 statewide, top 51%, 707 students, 67% FRL); Dunbar Middle (math 25% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,341 of 1,662 statewide, top 82%, 654 students, 78% FRL); Dickinson H S (math 30% / reading 46%, grade F, #880 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 3,619 students, 64% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 889 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 41d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 63% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 541 days — a 12% lower offer ($232k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $222,867 (15.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 541 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.61%
• DSCR: 0.62
• GRM: 13.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $359,129
• List price: $263,990
• Delta: -26.49%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13802 Ballast Green Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,637 (+4%)	2mo	$340,460	$208	78
14013 Baikal Manor Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,637 (+4%)	1mo	$299,990	$183	70
13926 Baikal Manor Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,619 (+3%)	4mo	$305,990	$189	69
13714 Ballast Green Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,738 (+11%)	4mo	$344,560	$198	67
14008 Starboard Reach Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,648 (+5%)	2mo	$331,900	$201	58
13544 Diamond Reef Ln	0.58mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,635 (+4%)	4mo	$284,900	$174	58
2625 Village Azalea Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,786 (+14%)	3mo	$299,900	$168	52
13404 Diamond Reef Ln	0.50mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,754 (+12%)	2mo	$285,000	$162	51
13225 Anchor Bay Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,786 (+14%)	3mo	$299,900	$168	50
14113 Baikal Manor Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,798 (+14%)	3mo	$303,990	$169	49
13704 Sorico Bay Dr	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,717 (+9%)	0mo	$285,900	$167	49
2209 Lake Mist Dr	0.69mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,785 (+14%)	1mo	$299,900	$168	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-101,944
• Equity at exit: $53,547

10-year hold

• IRR: -28.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.38×
• Total profit: $-138,786
• Equity at exit: $31,051

Cash invested: $100,556 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 108 active · 42 under contract
• Months of supply: 14.7 mo (7%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $312,990 ($181/sqft)
• Median days on market: 59 d
• This list price: 4% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +26.4% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77568

• Home prices YoY: -22.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 889
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,229 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,883
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$449 /mo · $5,387/yr
• Insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$468
• Net cashflow: $-721

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,142

Max offer price $254,770

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-473	-5% $-597	+0% $-721	+5% $-845	+10% $-969
Rent	-10% $-897	-5% $-809	+0% $-721	+5% $-633	+10% $-545
Rate	-1.0pp $-540	-0.5pp $-630	base $-721	+0.5pp $-814	+1.0pp $-909

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $89,782
• Closing costs: $10,774
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13817 Starboard Reach Dr Texas City, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.5	2268	$2,445	$1.08	0d	1	0.55mi
2122 Islawild Way Texas City, TX	3.0	2.0	1848	$2,100	$1.14	4d	1	0.71mi
14205 Freeboard Dr Texas City, TX	3.0	2.0	1389	$2,145	$1.54	0d	1	0.81mi
12524 Jetty Cv Santa Fe, TX	3.0	2.0	1803	$2,506	$1.39	117d	1	0.93mi
6136 Lago Mar Blvd Dickinson, TX	3.0	2.0	1417	$1,900	$1.34	139d	1	0.95mi
2128 Port Jackson Dr La Marque, TX	3.0	2.0	1754	$2,200	$1.25	89d	1	0.98mi
6130 Lago Mar Blvd Texas City, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1066	$2,199	$2.06	0d	2	1.04mi
3301 Gulf Fwy La Marque, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1074	$2,473	$2.30	0d	20	1.05mi
421 Palomino Stand Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	2.5	2134	$2,329	$1.09	59d	1	1.05mi
417 Palomino Stand Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	2.0	1844	$2,159	$1.17	5d	1	1.06mi
333 Summer Horse Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	2.0	1844	$2,209	$1.20	45d	1	1.07mi
628 Totem Trail Dr La Marque, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,949	$1.38	45d	1	1.08mi
640 Totem Trail Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	2.5	2134	$2,269	$1.06	54d	1	1.10mi
12318 Wavecrest Rd Texas City, TX	4.0	2.0	1844	$2,099	$1.14	33d	1	1.12mi
301 Summer Horse Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	2.5	2134	$2,229	$1.04	24d	1	1.12mi
520 Red Dusk Paint Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	2.5	2134	$2,249	$1.05	35d	1	1.14mi
12306 Wavecrest Rd La Marque, TX	4.0	2.0	1844	$2,099	$1.14	74d	1	1.15mi
801 Painted Bison Dr La Marque, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,969	$1.39	41d	1	1.17mi
725 Totem Trail Dr La Marque, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1774	$1,889	$1.06	0d	1	1.19mi
725 Totem Trail Dr La Marque, TX	3.0	2.0	1414	$1,949	$1.38	33d	1	1.19mi
2437 Regatta Ln La Marque, TX	4.0	2.0	1844	$2,079	$1.13	101d	1	1.20mi
692 Totem Trail Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	2.5	2134	$2,329	$1.09	76d	1	1.21mi
336 Comanche Plains Rd La Marque, TX	3.0	2.0	1436	$1,789	$1.25	5d	1	1.22mi
916 American Monarch Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	2.5	2134	$2,309	$1.08	63d	1	1.26mi
944 American Monarch Dr La Marque, TX	3.0	2.5	1658	$2,099	$1.27	57d	1	1.29mi
2301 Starboard Sail Alta Loma, TX	4.0	2.0	1856	$2,181	$1.18	106d	1	1.36mi
3210 Gulf Fwy Texas City, TX	2.0–3.0	2.0	1141	$1,990	$1.74	0d	9	1.45mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $263,990 Active 541 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $263,990 Active 540 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $263,990 Active 539 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $263,990 Active 538 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $263,990 Active 537 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $263,990 Active 536 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $263,990 Active 535 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $263,990 Active 534 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $263,990 Active 533 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $263,990 Active 531 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $263,990 Active 530 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $263,990 Active 529 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $263,990 Active 528 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $263,990 Active 522 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $263,990 Active 521 DOM
16. 2026-09-02
    days on market $263,990 Active 519 DOM
17. 2026-08-31
    days on market $263,990 Active 517 DOM
18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $263,990 Active 515 DOM
19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $263,990 Active 514 DOM
20. 2026-08-27
    days on market $263,990 Active 513 DOM
21. 2026-08-25
    days on market $263,990 Active 511 DOM
22. 2026-08-24
    days on market $263,990 Active 510 DOM
23. 2026-08-23
    days on market $263,990 Active 509 DOM
24. 2026-08-22
    days on market $263,990 Active 508 DOM
25. 2026-08-21
    days on market $263,990 Active 507 DOM
26. 2026-08-20
    days on market $263,990 Active 506 DOM
27. 2026-08-19
    days on market $263,990 Active 505 DOM
28. 2026-08-18
    days on market $263,990 Active 504 DOM
29. 2026-08-17
    days on market $263,990 Active 503 DOM
30. 2026-08-16
    days on market $263,990 Active 502 DOM
31. 2026-08-15
    days on market $263,990 Active 501 DOM
32. 2026-08-14
    days on market $263,990 Active 500 DOM
33. 2026-08-13
    days on market $263,990 Active 499 DOM
34. 2026-08-12
    days on market $263,990 Active 498 DOM
35. 2026-08-11
    days on market $263,990 Active 497 DOM
36. 2026-08-10
    days on market $263,990 Active 496 DOM
37. 2026-08-09
    days on market $263,990 Active 495 DOM
38. 2026-08-08
    days on market $263,990 Active 494 DOM
39. 2026-08-06
    days on market $263,990 Active 492 DOM
40. 2026-08-05
    days on market $263,990 Active 491 DOM
41. 2026-08-04
    days on market $263,990 Active 490 DOM
42. 2026-08-03
    days on market $263,990 Active 489 DOM
43. 2026-07-31
    days on market $263,990 Active 486 DOM
44. 2026-07-30
    days on market $263,990 Active 485 DOM
45. 2026-07-30
    days on market $263,990 Active 484 DOM
46. 2026-07-28
    days on market $263,990 Active 483 DOM
47. 2026-07-26
    days on market $263,990 Active 481 DOM
48. 2026-07-24
    days on market $263,990 Active 479 DOM
49. 2026-07-23
    days on market $263,990 Active 478 DOM
50. 2026-07-22
    days on market $263,990 Active 477 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,744
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,117
• − Property taxes: −$5,387
• − Insurance: −$1,796
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,140
• − Management: −$2,140
• − Depreciation: −$10,447
• Taxable loss: −$15,282
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,668
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,987/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This single-family home in Texas City, TX, is in good condition with a modern and well-maintained interior and exterior. It offers a spacious floor plan and is ready for immediate occupancy.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Resale Upgrading kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more appealing and energy-efficient. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 31/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Hughes Road El F TX #2,174/4,322 Nat'l #24,455/41,679 Middle Dunbar Middle F TX #1,341/1,662 Nat'l #11,105/14,009 High Dickinson H S F TX #880/1,632 Nat'l #8,877/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dickinson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817070
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $61,318
• Composite: 35.16/100
• National rank: #5005
• State rank: #366 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Texas City

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #907
• US rank: #16268

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Texas City, TX
• County: Galveston County · 390,640 people
• City population: 23,083
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,083
• Household income: $74,694
• Rent vs Own: 28.0% rent · 72.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 16% of renters

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Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 37% Hispanic / Latino 29% Black 26% Two or more races 17% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 21% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.39%
• Current HPI: 236.0239
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-06-04 Price Changed $263,990 Zillow
• 2025-04-01 Listed $276,990 Zillow