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5848 Timber Point Dr
C- Composite 52.15
Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

  • ARV discount +15.0/15.0
  • Cash flow +13.0/30.0
  • 1% rule +6.0/10.0
  • Schools +4.9/10.0
  • Condition / age +4.0/5.0
  • DSCR +3.9/10.0
  • Livability +3.1/5.0
  • Rent growth +2.2/5.0
  • Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$186,585

5848 Timber Point Dr · Princeton, TX 75407
4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,504 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market
Built 2022 Good condition 4,835 sqft lot Garage $124/sqft · 29% below area Est $262k · 29% under $46/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 35% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

•• Great List Price!! Included with a full-price offer, You'll receive a Stainless steel refrigerator, Washer and dryer, a 70-inch TV, a King bed, and a Queen bed. All items are in excellent condition and only two years old. Beautiful Home Near Lake Lavon in the Amenity-Rich Bridgewater Community! This delightful 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home in Princeton is a must-see! Inside, you'll discover a bright, modern interior featuring sleek quartz countertops, stainless steel appliances, and neutral tones, making it easy to personalize to your taste. The primary suite serves as a true retreat, showcasing a spacious layout, a spa-like ensuite bathroom, and plenty of closet space.

Key facts

  • 4,835 sq ft lot
  • Garage
  • Community pool

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Costco Walmart Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

  • This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $187k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

  • At list price, monthly cash flow is $-11 ($-132/yr) — negative.
  • To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $185k (1.0% below list).
  • Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $187k).
  • Recommended offer: $185k (1.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
  • Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.5% in Princeton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

  • Location reads 62/100 on livability (#969 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
  • Princeton ISD (suburban): math 51% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #188 of 826 in TX (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
  • Zoned schools: Harper El (math 50% / reading 41%, grade D-, #1,112 of 4,322 statewide, top 26%, 436 students, 56% FRL); Clark Middle (math 53% / reading 42%, grade C-, #408 of 1,662 statewide, top 25%, 707 students, 66% FRL); Princeton H S (math 52% / reading 54%, grade C-, #437 of 1,632 statewide, top 27%, 1,521 students, 57% FRL) — zoned schools at 60% FRL track the district average.
  • Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.0%/yr); 1749 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 57d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 75% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

  • Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
  • Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

  • Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
  • 5 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

  • Watch-outs: property tax is 3.4% of price.
  • Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 8→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer $184,646 (1.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

  1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
  2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
  3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
  4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
  5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
  6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
  7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule
1.10%
Cap rate
6.22%
Cash-on-cash
-0.25%
DSCR
0.99
GRM
7.6

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp)
$261,777
List price
$186,585
Delta
-4.54%
Verdict
FAIR
Comps
20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
Address Dist Beds/Ba Sqft Sold Price $/sf Match
325 Carthage Dr 0.40mi 4/2.0 1,675 (+11%) 0mo $210,400 $126 62
6301 Sandpiper Ln 0.72mi 4/2.5 1,535 (+2%) 1mo $209,099 $136 60
6232 Sandpiper Ln 0.74mi 4/2.5 1,535 (+2%) 1mo $199,999 $130 60
6227 Whimbrel Way 0.74mi 4/2.5 1,535 (+2%) 1mo $199,999 $130 59
515 Azalea Rd 0.62mi 4/2.5 1,602 (+6%) 0mo $224,990 $140 58
5202 Finbrooke Dr 0.74mi 3/2.0 (-1) 1,479 (-2%) 1mo $248,000 $168 57
521 Azalea Rd 0.63mi 4/2.5 1,602 (+6%) 1mo $224,990 $140 57
527 Azalea Rd 0.64mi 4/2.5 1,602 (+6%) 0mo $224,990 $140 57
529 Azalea Rd 0.64mi 3/2.5 (-1) 1,419 (-6%) 1mo $211,990 $149 53
511 Azalea Rd 0.64mi 3/2.5 (-1) 1,419 (-6%) 1mo $211,990 $149 53
517 Azalea Rd 0.64mi 3/2.5 (-1) 1,419 (-6%) 1mo $211,990 $149 53
6229 Whimbrell Way 0.74mi 3/2.5 (-1) 1,360 (-10%) 1mo $186,999 $137 42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold
IRR
-20.9%
Equity multiple
0.30×
Total profit
$-36,713
Equity at exit
$27,820
10-year hold
IRR
-26.9%
Equity multiple
-0.06×
Total profit
$-55,154
Equity at exit
$16,132

Cash invested: $52,244 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE)
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas
87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County
— inherits STATE
City
— inherits STATE
3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.
Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now
135 active · 91 under contract
Months of supply
11.1 mo (9%/mo absorbed)
Median asking
$238,500 ($162/sqft)
Median days on market
53 d
This list price
4% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking
+7.4% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 75407

Home prices YoY
-30.3%
Rents YoY
-1.0%
Active inventory
1749
Price-to-rent
7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent
$2,055 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I)
$978
Tax from tax record
$532 /mo · $6,385/yr
Insurance
$78
HOA
$46
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
$432
Net cashflow
$-11

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,069
Max offer price $184,646
Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price -10% $95 -5% $42 +0% $-11 +5% $-64 +10% $-117
Rent -10% $-173 -5% $-92 +0% $-11 +5% $70 +10% $151
Rate -1.0pp $83 -0.5pp $36 base $-11 +0.5pp $-59 +1.0pp $-109

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment
$46,646
Closing costs
$5,598
Reserves months
Total cash needed

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 40 comps

AddressBedsBaths SqftRent$/sqft DOM Units Dist
5836 Timber Point Dr Princeton, TX 3.0 2.0 1440 $1,875 $1.30 68d 1 0.01mi
228 Rubylace Dr Princeton, TX 3.0 2.0 1436 $1,700 $1.18 93d 1 0.05mi
5724 Rockrose Ln Princeton, TX 3.0 2.0 1266 $2,050 $1.62 73d 1 0.10mi
5720 Rockrose Ln Princeton, TX 4.0 3.0 1500 $2,205 $1.47 54d 1 0.10mi
5708 Rockrose Ln Princeton, TX 3.0 2.0 1440 $1,925 $1.34 93d 1 0.12mi
5817 Rockrose Ln Princeton, TX 3.0 2.0 1411 $1,624 $1.15 70d 1 0.12mi
5825 Rockrose Ln Princeton, TX 3.0 2.0 1440 $1,780 $1.24 93d 1 0.12mi
5733 Rockrose Ln Princeton, TX 3.0 2.0 1266 $1,720 $1.36 93d 1 0.12mi
5644 Rockrose Ln Princeton, TX 3.0 2.0 1262 $1,800 $1.43 93d 1 0.16mi
5620 Timber Point Dr Princeton, TX 3.0 2.0 1436 $1,750 $1.22 32d 1 0.16mi
5836 Crystal Water Way Princeton, TX 3.0 2.0 1481 $1,799 $1.21 42d 1 0.17mi
5816 Crystal Water Way Princeton, TX 4.0 2.0 1674 $2,100 $1.25 32d 1 0.17mi
318 Mahogany Ln Princeton, TX 3.0 2.0 1479 $1,800 $1.22 73d 1 0.19mi
5847 Rock Maple Dr Princeton, TX 3.0 2.0 1481 $1,785 $1.21 66d 1 0.20mi
5847 Rock Maple Dr Princeton, TX 3.0 2.0 1481 $1,785 $1.21 56d 1 0.20mi
142 Plumcove Dr Unit Labs Princeton, TX 4.0 3.0 1550 $1,750 $1.13 42d 1 0.20mi
303 Ashbrook Way Princeton, TX 3.0 2.0 1484 $1,849 $1.25 2d 1 0.21mi
303 Ashbrook Way Princeton, TX 3.0 2.0 1479 $1,849 $1.25 1d 1 0.21mi
5969 Sumlin Way Princeton, TX 3.0 2.0 1266 $1,695 $1.34 19d 1 0.22mi
119 Cypress Ln Princeton, TX 3.0 2.0 1260 $1,750 $1.39 93d 1 0.22mi
155 Plumcove Dr Princeton, TX 4.0 2.5 1550 $1,895 $1.22 12d 1 0.23mi
143 Plumcove Dr Princeton, TX 3.0 3.0 1376 $2,150 $1.56 93d 1 0.23mi
143 Plumcove Dr Princeton, TX 3.0 2.5 1376 $1,500 $1.09 16d 1 0.23mi
403 Ashbrook Way Princeton, TX 3.0 2.0 1485 $1,649 $1.11 38d 1 0.26mi
403 Ashbrook Way Princeton, TX 3.0 2.0 1485 $1,849 $1.25 73d 1 0.26mi
330 Ashbrook Way Princeton, TX 3.0 2.0 1479 $1,699 $1.15 48d 1 0.26mi
116 Boxberry Way Princeton, TX 3.0 2.5 1377 $1,750 $1.27 17d 1 0.27mi
411 Ashbrook Way Princeton, TX 4.0 2.0 1675 $1,995 $1.19 93d 1 0.28mi
5840 Cherry Hollow Way Princeton, TX 3.0 2.0 1479 $2,000 $1.35 12d 1 0.28mi
5808 Cherry Hollow Way Princeton, TX 3.0 2.0 1260 $1,749 $1.39 66d 1 0.28mi
320 Dewberry St Princeton, TX 3.0 2.0 1481 $1,695 $1.14 48d 1 0.30mi
320 Dewberry St Princeton, TX 3.0 2.0 1481 $1,745 $1.18 62d 1 0.30mi
427 Ashbrook Way Princeton, TX 3.0 2.0 1482 $1,800 $1.21 53d 1 0.31mi
241 Boxberry Way Princeton, TX 3.0 2.0 1411 $1,725 $1.22 93d 1 0.31mi
5504 Rockrose Ln Princeton, TX 3.0 2.0 1479 $1,999 $1.35 53d 1 0.31mi
404 Dewberry St Princeton, TX 4.0 2.0 1674 $1,850 $1.11 93d 1 0.33mi
136 Honeysuckle St Princeton, TX 3.0 2.0 1267 $1,700 $1.34 93d 1 0.40mi
128 Honeysuckle St Princeton, TX 4.0 2.0 1675 $1,850 $1.10 10d 1 0.40mi
122 Lemongrass Dr Princeton, TX 4.0 2.0 1674 $1,850 $1.11 3d 1 0.46mi
525 Dashwood Dr Princeton, TX 3.0 2.0 1243 $1,600 $1.29 28d 1 0.50mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other
Parcel: R125540NN03001Subdivision: Bridgewater Ph 4bCounty: CollinCountry: United States
Financial info
Treat as clear loan typeNo second mortgage indicatedSpecial listing condition: Real Estate OwnedListing terms: Cash or Conventional
HOA & community
Mandatory HOAAnnual association fee of $550HOA includes full use of facilities and management feesHOA managed by PMP

Exterior

Parking
Attached garage (1 car)Covered parking (1 space)DrivewayGarage door opener
Security
Security features: Unknown
Utilities
Municipal utility districtIndividual water meterConcrete streets and curbsSidewalksUnderground utilities
Home design
Single family residenceSingle-storyPreowned (built in 2022)
Construction
Fiber cement exteriorComposition roofSlab foundationBuilt in 2022
Exterior features
Wood fencingInterior lotCommunity pool (community feature)

Interior

Kitchen
DishwasherDisposalElectric range
Bedrooms
4 bedrooms (all on the main level)
Flooring
Ceramic tile
Bathrooms
2 full bathrooms
Heating & cooling
Central heating (electric)Central air conditioning (electric)
Interior features
High speed internet availableOne living areaOne dining areaOne level (single-story)
Laundry & utility
Washer hookupElectric dryer hookup

HOA detail $46/mo · $552/yr

Likely covers
water

Listing history 32 events

  1. 2026-08-08
    days on market $186,585 Active 9 DOM
  2. 2026-08-06
    days on market $186,585 Active 7 DOM
  3. 2026-08-05
    days on market $186,585 Active 6 DOM
  4. 2026-08-04
    days on market $186,585 Active 5 DOM
  5. 2026-08-03
    days on market $186,585 Active 4 DOM
  6. 2026-07-30
    pricedays on marketlisting id $186,585 Active 1 DOM
  7. 2026-06-13
    days on market $249,900 Active 262 DOM
  8. 2026-06-13
    days on market $249,900 Active 261 DOM
  9. 2026-06-09
    days on market $249,900 Active 258 DOM
  10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $249,900 Active 257 DOM
  11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $249,900 Active 256 DOM
  12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $249,900 Active 253 DOM
  13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,900 Active 252 DOM
  14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,900 Active 251 DOM
  15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,900 Active 250 DOM
  16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,900 Active 249 DOM
  17. 2025-11-01
    historical $2,300
  18. 2025-09-24
    listed $249,900 Active 1098-char remark
  19. 2025-09-24
    historical
  20. 2025-08-09
    price $2,300
  21. 2025-08-09
    price $2,400
  22. 2025-08-07
    price $2,300
  23. 2025-07-24
    listed $2,400
  24. 2025-07-03
    price $249,900
  25. 2025-04-09
    price $260,000
  26. 2025-03-25
    listed $265,000 Active
  27. 2023-03-16
    soldstatus
  28. 2023-03-16
    soldstatus
  29. 2023-03-15
    soldstatus Closed
  30. 2023-02-10
    status Pending
  31. 2023-02-01
    listed $285,000 Active
  32. 2022-12-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

Current annual tax
$6,385 · $532/mo
Projected year-2 tax
$6,385 · $532/mo
Expected delta
$0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

  • 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
  • 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
  • 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 8 d/yr ≥110°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
  • 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
  • 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income
$24,658
− Mortgage interest
−$10,452
− Property taxes
−$6,385
− Insurance
−$933
− Repairs & maintenance
−$1,973
− Management
−$1,973
− HOA
−$552
− Depreciation
−$5,428
Taxable loss
−$3,037
combined federal + state — saved on this device
Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
+$729
After-tax cash flow
$597/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,520–$22,560 screening

This well-maintained, move-in-ready home in the Bridgewater Community near Lake Lavon offers a bright, modern interior with neutral tones and stainless steel appliances.

Value-add opportunities

  • Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal
  • Rental Replace blinds with energy-efficient ones — Improves energy efficiency and reduces maintenance costs

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 49/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Harper El D- TX #1,112/4,322 Nat'l #15,746/41,679 High Princeton H S C- TX #437/1,632 Nat'l #4,893/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District
Princeton ISD
NCES district ID
4835850
Math proficiency
51% ▼ -8.00%
Reading proficiency
47% ▬ 0.00%
Median HH income
$54,827
Composite
42.44/100
National rank
#3226
State rank
#188 of 826 in TX
C Composite livability gradescore 62/100

Livability — Princeton

Score
62/100
State rank
#969
US rank
#17215

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County
Collin County · 1,210,074 people
City population
34,171
Metro
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
Population (ZIP)
34,171
Household income
$100,037
Rent vs Own
23.8% rent · 76.2% own
Severe rent burden
11% of renters

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025)
1,210,074 people
By 2030
1,358,201 · +12.2%
By 2040
1,654,061 · +36.7%
By 2050
1,937,359 · +60.1%
By 2075
2,567,039 · +112.1%
By 2100
2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character
Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.66)
Race & ethnicity
White 47% Hispanic / Latino 30% Black 17% Two or more races 10% Asian 4% Native American 1%
Hispanic origin (detail)
Mexican 26%
Common ancestry
Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Russian 1%
Foreign-born
15% · Canada, China, Mexico
Languages at home
70% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

2024 margin
R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
2008→2024 swing
+14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
All cycles
2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

Civics

Price history

-34.5% since first listed
18 events — show timeline
  • 2026-07-09 Listed $186,585 NTREIS
  • 2026-06-14 Listing Removed NTREIS
  • 2025-11-01 Rental Removed $2,300 NTREIS
  • 2025-09-24 Listing Removed NTREIS
  • 2025-09-24 Listed $249,900 NTREIS
  • 2025-08-09 Price Changed $2,300 NTREIS
  • 2025-08-09 Price Changed $2,400 NTREIS
  • 2025-08-07 Price Changed $2,300 NTREIS
  • 2025-07-24 Listed for Rent $2,400 NTREIS
  • 2025-07-03 Price Changed $249,900 NTREIS
  • 2025-04-09 Price Changed $260,000 NTREIS
  • 2025-03-25 Listed $265,000 NTREIS
  • 2023-03-16 Sold (Public Records) Public Records
  • 2023-03-16 Sold (Public Records) Public Records
  • 2023-03-15 Sold (MLS) NTREIS
  • 2023-02-10 Pending NTREIS
  • 2023-02-01 Listed $285,000 NTREIS
  • 2022-12-01 Sold (Public Records) Public Records

Property tax history

+101.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,385 · -4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

Loading sold comps…