197 Lee Farm Dr · Southbury, CT 06488

$235,000

1 bd · 2.0 ba · 674 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1929 3,484 sqft lot Est $291k · 19% under ↓ 41% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.5/30.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This former summer cottage was converted for 4 season living. With a little effort and a few upgrades, you will have a great home in one of Southbury's popular lake communities. Trim a few limbs out and you will have great lake views. Property is being sold in "AS IS CONDITION"

Key facts

• Lake views
• 3,484 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• LAKE VIEWS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (2-car); Paved and unpaved parking; Total of 4 parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water connected; Cesspool sewage system; Electric service (assumed); Oil fuel for heating and hot water
• Home design: Single family home
• Construction: Frame construction with concrete elements; Concrete foundation; Asphalt shingle roof; Vinyl siding; Tan exterior color
• Exterior features: Deck; Gutters; Sloping lot; Easements on property; Water view

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Hot air heating (oil-fired); Central air conditioning; Oil hot water (domestic); fuel tank located in basement
• Interior features: Open floor plan; Bonus room; Partial, heated, partially finished walk-out basement with concrete floor; Attic accessible via hatch
• Laundry & utility: Washer and electric dryer located on the lower level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-176 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $204k (13.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $181k (22.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $181k (22.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Regional School District 15 (suburban): math 56% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #46 of 153 in CT (top 30%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 4% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Pomperaug Regional High School (math 54% / reading 74%, grade B-, #37 of 194 statewide, top 19%, 1,039 students, 14% FRL).
• Market conditions: 156 active listings in the ZIP; 502 units permitted in Naugatuck Valley Planning Region in 2024 (171 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 11 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1929 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $181,440 (22.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1929 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.20%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $291,168
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
82 Scout Rd	0.30mi	1/1.0	660 (-2%)	14mo	$285,000	$432	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-49,284
• Equity at exit: $35,039

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-57,291
• Equity at exit: $20,319

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Connecticut: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Strong tenant statutes; rent commissions in some towns; courts slow especially in cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 06488

• Active inventory: 156
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,814 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$224 /mo · $2,685/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$381
• Net cashflow: $-176

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,037

Max offer price $203,874

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $235,000 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $235,000 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $235,000 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $235,000 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 278-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   listed $235,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,685 · $224/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,857 · $321/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,172/yr (+$98/mo · 43.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,773
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$2,685
• − Insurance: −$1,842
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,742
• − Management: −$1,742
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable loss: −$6,237
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,497
• After-tax cash flow: $-617/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Regional School District 15
• NCES district ID: 0903537
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $84,697
• Composite: 54.36/100
• National rank: #1361
• State rank: #46 of 153 in CT

Livability — Southbury

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 19,973

Population outlook (Naugatuck Valley County) Hauer SSP2

• By 2040: 496,846

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 7% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · China, Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 4% Chinese 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Naugatuck Valley

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+7.4) · D 45.6% · R 53.0% · Other 1.4%
• All cycles: 2024: R+7.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -124.35%
• Current HPI: 165.0514
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$38B
▸Insurance	3	$71B
▸Financial Services	2	$25B
▸Transportation / Logistics	2	$18B
▸Healthcare	1	$247B
▸Telecommunications	1	$55B

Price history

-41.2% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $235,000 Smart MLS
• 2025-12-06 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2025-08-23 Listed $254,900 Smart MLS
• 2025-08-10 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2025-07-19 Price Changed $256,900 Smart MLS
• 2025-05-03 Price Changed $259,900 Smart MLS
• 2025-04-09 Listed $349,900 Smart MLS
• 2024-01-07 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2023-12-09 Price Changed $239,900 Smart MLS
• 2023-11-30 Listed $260,000 Smart MLS
• 2023-11-01 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2023-10-15 Relisted — Smart MLS
• 2023-09-06 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2023-05-05 Listed $260,000 Smart MLS
• 2012-02-28 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2011-11-28 Listed $179,900 Smart MLS
• 2011-11-18 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2011-07-18 Listed $190,000 Smart MLS
• 2010-06-08 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2010-03-08 Listed $200,000 Smart MLS
• 2008-08-26 Sold (Public Records) $255,000 Public Records
• 2008-08-26 Sold (MLS) $355,000 Smart MLS
• 2008-08-26 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2007-03-28 Listed $399,900 Smart MLS
• 2006-10-25 Listed $399,900 Smart MLS

Property tax history

+0.5%/yr

Latest (2023): $2,685 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.