428 Washington Ave #2 · Dunkirk, NY 14048

$68,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,784 sqft · Condo · 106 Days on market

Built 1872 Fair condition ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

EXCELLENT INVESTMENT PROPERTY, or IDEAL as a live-in investment! DUPLEX offering 2 bedrooms in each unit. Separate electric, gas & water meters. Separate basement areas (waterproofed walls). Vinyl siding and most windows have been replaced. Deep, fenced in yard with garden area. Porch. Blacktop driveway. Two story barn could easily be converted back to a two car garage. Conveniently located to park, playground area, shopping, hospital, library, drug store, restaurants, beaches, harbor front, and other recreational facilities, .. .

Key facts

• Investment property
• Vinyl siding
• Waterproofed walls

Tags

• INVESTMENT PROPERTY
• DUPLEX
• SEPARATE BASEMENT AREAS
• WATERPROOFED WALLS
• VINYL SIDING
• FENCED IN YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $68k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $426 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $68k).
• Recommended offer: $62k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.8% vs local median 7.4% in Dunkirk — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#426 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Dunkirk City School District (town): math 30% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #575 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 70 active listings in the ZIP; 127 units permitted in Chautauqua County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($470 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (4.9% local appreciation)).
• Chautauqua County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($62k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo; built in 1872 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $61,880 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1872 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.77% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 30.38%
• DSCR: 2.35
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.93% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 36.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.24×
• Total profit: $42,617
• Equity at exit: $38,249

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.55×
• Total profit: $105,592
• Equity at exit: $65,778

Cash invested: $19,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14048

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 70
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,205 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$357
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$85 /mo · $1,020/yr
• Insurance: −$28
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$253
• Net cashflow: $426

Break-even live

Break-even rent $665

Max offer price $68,000

Occupancy floor 60%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,000
• Closing costs: $2,040
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: watergaselectric
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $68,000 Active 106 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $68,000 Active 105 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $68,000 Active 104 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $68,000 Active 103 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $68,000 Active 101 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $68,000 Active 100 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $68,000 Active 97 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $68,000 Active 96 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $68,000 Active 95 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $68,000 Active 94 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $68,000 Active 91 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $68,000 Active 90 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $68,000 Active 89 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $68,000 Active 88 DOM
15. 2026-04-12
    price $75,000 543-char remark

    Show marketing remark (543 chars)

    EXCELLENT INVESTMENT PROPERTY, or IDEAL as a live-in investment! DUPLEX offering 2 bedrooms in each unit. Separate electric, gas & water meters. Separate basement areas (waterproofed walls). Vinyl siding and most windows have been replaced. Deep, fenced in yard with garden area. Porch. Blacktop driveway. Two story barn could easily be converted back to a two car garage. Conveniently located to park, playground area, shopping, hospital, library, drug store, restaurants, beaches, harbor front, and other recreational facilities, .. .

16. 2026-03-24
    price $81,900 543-char remark

    Show marketing remark (543 chars)

    EXCELLENT INVESTMENT PROPERTY, or IDEAL as a live-in investment! DUPLEX offering 2 bedrooms in each unit. Separate electric, gas & water meters. Separate basement areas (waterproofed walls). Vinyl siding and most windows have been replaced. Deep, fenced in yard with garden area. Porch. Blacktop driveway. Two story barn could easily be converted back to a two car garage. Conveniently located to park, playground area, shopping, hospital, library, drug store, restaurants, beaches, harbor front, and other recreational facilities, .. .

17. 2026-03-04
    listed $84,900 Active 543-char remark

    Show marketing remark (543 chars)

    EXCELLENT INVESTMENT PROPERTY, or IDEAL as a live-in investment! DUPLEX offering 2 bedrooms in each unit. Separate electric, gas & water meters. Separate basement areas (waterproofed walls). Vinyl siding and most windows have been replaced. Deep, fenced in yard with garden area. Porch. Blacktop driveway. Two story barn could easily be converted back to a two car garage. Conveniently located to park, playground area, shopping, hospital, library, drug store, restaurants, beaches, harbor front, and other recreational facilities, .. .

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,460
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,809
• − Property taxes: −$1,020
• − Insurance: −$1,006
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,157
• − Management: −$1,157
• − Depreciation: −$1,978
• Taxable income: $4,332
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,040
• After-tax cash flow: $4,078/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This two-unit property requires moderate repairs to the exterior and roof, with potential for significant value increase through exterior painting and siding replacement.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate Vinyl siding — Worn and discolored
• Moderate Roof — Aged and discolored

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace siding — Improves durability and appearance
• Both Roof replacement — Essential for long-term value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Vinyl siding · Worn and discolored	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Roof · Aged and discolored	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$6,000–30,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace siding — Improves durability and appearance ↑
• Both Roof replacement — Essential for long-term value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dunkirk City School District
• NCES district ID: 3609420
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $36,345
• Composite: 26.55/100
• National rank: #7190
• State rank: #575 of 590 in NY

Livability — Dunkirk

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #426
• US rank: #7421

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dunkirk, NY
• City population: 14,949
• Population (ZIP): 14,949

Population outlook (Chautauqua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,454 people
• By 2030: 118,509 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 107,311 · -13.1%
• By 2050: 96,703 · -21.7%
• By 2075: 76,757 · -37.8%
• By 2100: 60,984 · -50.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 12% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 25% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 20% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chautauqua

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.0) · D 39.0% · R 61.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.9pp toward R · 2008: 0.9pp · 2024: -22.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.0 2020: R+19.8 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+8.2 2008: D+0.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.93%
• Current HPI: 325.9188
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-11.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-12 Price Changed $75,000 UNYREIS
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $81,900 UNYREIS
• 2026-03-04 Listed $84,900 UNYREIS