Is 2800 S White Mountain Rd #91 in Show Low, AZ a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it C+ with a 11.9% cap rate and $398/mo modeled cash flow at a $85,000 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 2800 S White Mountain Rd #91?

The modeled cap rate is 11.9% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $1,248/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🏷️ Likely Rental

C+ Composite 64.66

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

Cash flow +30.0/30.0
DSCR +10.0/10.0
1% rule +9.7/10.0
ARV discount +7.5/15.0
Livability +3.2/5.0
Schools +2.6/10.0
Appreciation +2.5/10.0
Rent growth +2.5/5.0
Condition / age +2.2/5.0
Manufactured-home adj. -5.6

$85,000

2800 S White Mountain Rd #91 · Show Low, AZ 85901

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured · 88 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 1996 Fair condition $70/sqft · 56% below area ↓ 25% since listing

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

National Forest-Backed Mountain Living for $90K - Lending Available! Looking for an affordable escape or low-maintenance home? This 3-bed, 2-bath home (~1,206 SF) in Timberline Park (Lot #91) offers convenient living and a rare asset: it backs directly to the National Forest for immediate nature access and privacy. Inside features a functional split floor plan with a large master bedroom. Designed for easy living, the home includes central AC/heat, washer/dryer hookups, a covered deck, and a powered storage shed. Lot rent is $669/mo and includes clubhouse & playground access. Hard-to-find lending options are available, making this the perfect budget-friendly mountain retreat.

Key facts

Covered deck
Powered storage shed
Clubhouse access

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $85k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $398 ($5k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
Recommended offer: $80k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Cap rate 11.9% vs local median 3.3% in Show Low — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

Location reads 65/100 on livability (#90 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
Blue Ridge Unified School District No. 32 (4397) (town): math 21% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #139 of 249 in AZ (top 56%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Zoned schools: Blue Ridge Elementary School (math 20% / reading 30%, grade F, #638 of 1,109 statewide, top 58%, 818 students, 60% FRL); Blue Ridge Jr High School (math 21% / reading 26%, grade F, #113 of 218 statewide, top 53%, 267 students, 64% FRL); Blue Ridge High School (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #120 of 381 statewide, top 34%, 669 students, 49% FRL).
Market conditions: 1380 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 185d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 485 units permitted in Navajo County in 2024 (11 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Navajo County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 88 days — a 6% lower offer ($80k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,900 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

It's been on market 88 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 1.47% ✓
Cap rate: 11.91%
Cash-on-cash: 20.08%
DSCR: 1.89
GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $194,750
List price: $85,000
Delta: -56.35%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 4 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2680 S Marshalls Run	0.24mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,161 (-4%)	2mo	$400,000	$345	74
941 E Lauren Ct	0.12mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,080 (-11%)	5mo	$427,000	$395	67
931 E Cedar Ridge Run	0.30mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (+10%)	1mo	$423,000	$315	62
2700 S White Mountain Rd #122	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,020 (-16%)	7mo	$155,000	$152	60
923 Hidden Way	1.05mi	3/2.0	1,239 (+2%)	2mo	$425,000	$343	60
2700 S White Mountain Rd #404	0.19mi	2/2.0 (-1)	951 (-22%)	6mo	$160,000	$168	56
869 S Hunters Run --	1.35mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,256 (+3%)	1mo	$375,000	$299	54
2041 E Rimstone Dr	1.35mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,297 (+7%)	4mo	$435,000	$335	45
1976 Maryanne Rd	0.64mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,328 (+9%)	11mo	$395,000	$297	41
2241 E Rimstone Dr	1.43mi	3/2.0	1,398 (+15%)	4mo	$444,000	$318	36
3860 S White Mountain Rd #87	0.61mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,022 (-16%)	6mo	$15,000	$15	35
2527 Chiricahua Dr	1.34mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,008 (-17%)	4mo	$307,000	$305	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: 12.3%
Equity multiple: 1.49×
Total profit: $11,604
Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

IRR: 21.2%
Equity multiple: 2.80×
Total profit: $42,835
Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 3 active · 2 under contract
Months of supply: 18.0 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $299,000 ($271/sqft)
Median days on market: 94 d
This list price: 33% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: -40.9% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 85901

Home prices YoY: -14.5%
Active inventory: 1380
Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $1,248 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$446
Tax est. 1.5%: −$106 /mo · $1,275/yr
Insurance: −$35
HOA: −$0
Lot rent leased land?: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$262
Net cashflow: $398

Break-even live

Break-even rent $744

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $457	-5% $428	+0% $398	+5% $369	+10% $339
Rent	-10% $300	-5% $349	+0% $398	+5% $447	+10% $497
Rate	-1.0pp $441	-0.5pp $420	base $398	+0.5pp $376	+1.0pp $354

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $21,250
Closing costs: $2,550
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2800 S White Mountain Rd #84 Show Low, AZ	2.0	2.0	960	$1,600	$1.67	184d	1	0.04mi
2800 S White Mountain Rd Unit 83 Show Low, AZ	2.0	1.5	840	$1,600	$1.90	184d	1	0.14mi
2700 S White Mountain Rd #1121 Show Low, AZ	2.0	2.0	825	$1,500	$1.82	184d	1	0.16mi
2700 S White Mountain Rd Show Low, AZ	2.0	2.0	900	$1,700	$1.89	12d	1	0.17mi
2700 S White Mountain Rd Show Low, AZ	2.0	2.0	900	$1,625	$1.81	0d	1	0.17mi
2600 S White Mountain Rd Show Low, AZ	2.0	2.0	980	$1,750	$1.79	184d	1	0.26mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other: Private maintained road
HOA & community: No HOALocated in Timberline RV & MHP community

Exterior

Utilities: Public sewerMetered waterIndividual electric metering (APS)Natural gas availablePower available
Home design: Manufactured homeSingle wideOne levelLocated on leased land (monthly lease $680)
Construction: Metal and shingle roofOther type foundation
Exterior features: Property borders private land and USFSTrees on property with tall pinesGutters and downspoutsCovered porch/deck

Interior

Kitchen: Built-in dishwasherRefrigerator
Flooring: Laminate
Bathrooms: Full bathroom with shower
Heating & cooling: Central A/CForced air heatingGas water heater
Interior features: Laminate flooringNo fireplace
Laundry & utility: Utility room

Listing history 50 events

2026-09-14

days on market $85,000 Active 88 DOM
2026-09-13

days on market $85,000 Active 87 DOM
2026-09-12

days on market $85,000 Active 86 DOM
2026-09-11

days on market $85,000 Active 85 DOM
2026-09-05

days on market $85,000 Active 79 DOM
2026-09-04

days on market $85,000 Active 78 DOM
2026-09-03

days on market $85,000 Active 77 DOM
2026-09-02

pricedays on market $85,000 Active 76 DOM
2026-08-30

days on market $90,000 Active 73 DOM
2026-08-29

days on market $90,000 Active 72 DOM
2026-08-28

days on market $90,000 Active 71 DOM
2026-08-27

days on market $90,000 Active 70 DOM
2026-08-26

days on market $90,000 Active 69 DOM
2026-08-25

days on market $90,000 Active 68 DOM
2026-08-24

days on market $90,000 Active 67 DOM
2026-08-23

days on market $90,000 Active 66 DOM
2026-08-22

days on market $90,000 Active 65 DOM
2026-08-21

days on market $90,000 Active 64 DOM
2026-08-20

days on market $90,000 Active 63 DOM
2026-08-19

days on market $90,000 Active 62 DOM
2026-08-18

days on market $90,000 Active 61 DOM
2026-08-17

days on market $90,000 Active 60 DOM
2026-08-16

days on market $90,000 Active 59 DOM
2026-08-15

days on market $90,000 Active 58 DOM
2026-08-14

days on market $90,000 Active 57 DOM
2026-08-13

days on market $90,000 Active 56 DOM
2026-08-12

days on market $90,000 Active 55 DOM
2026-08-11

days on market $90,000 Active 54 DOM
2026-08-10

days on market $90,000 Active 53 DOM
2026-08-09

days on market $90,000 Active 52 DOM
2026-08-08

days on market $90,000 Active 51 DOM
2026-08-07

days on market $90,000 Active 50 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $90,000 Active 49 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $90,000 Active 48 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $90,000 Active 47 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $90,000 Active 46 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $90,000 Active 43 DOM
2026-07-30

days on market $90,000 Active 42 DOM
2026-07-29

days on market $90,000 Active 41 DOM
2026-07-27

days on market $90,000 Active 39 DOM
2026-07-25

days on market $90,000 Active 37 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $90,000 Active 36 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $90,000 Active 35 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $90,000 Active 34 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $90,000 Active 33 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $90,000 Active 30 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $90,000 Active 28 DOM
2026-07-15

days on market $90,000 Active 27 DOM
2026-07-14

days on market $90,000 Active 26 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $90,000 Active 25 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 1/10 Low
🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $14,971
− Mortgage interest: −$4,761
− Property taxes: −$1,275
− Insurance: −$425
− Repairs & maintenance: −$1,198
− Management: −$1,198
− Depreciation: −$2,473
Taxable income: $3,641

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$874
After-tax cash flow: $3,904/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $30,400–$54,720 screening

This manufactured home requires moderate repairs and maintenance to improve its condition and value. Key updates include painting, replacing cabinets and fixtures, and enhancing the landscaping.

Repairs flagged

Minor Kitchen cabinets — Worn appearance
Minor Bathroom fixtures — Dated appearance
Minor Exterior siding — Could benefit from cleaning

Value-add opportunities

Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
Both Replace kitchen cabinets — New cabinets improve functionality and appearance ↑
Both Replace bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures enhance functionality and appearance ↑
Both Landscaping and curb appeal — Improved landscaping enhances curb appeal and property value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 26/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Blue Ridge Elementary School F AZ #638/1,109 Nat'l #29,899/41,679 Middle Blue Ridge Jr High School F AZ #113/218 Nat'l #10,902/14,009 High Blue Ridge High School F AZ #120/381 Nat'l #11,215/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Blue Ridge Unified School District No. 32 (4397)
NCES district ID: 0406580
Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -13.00%
Median HH income: $49,406
Composite: 21.97/100
National rank: #8213
State rank: #139 of 249 in AZ

C Composite livability gradescore 65/100

Livability — Show Low

Score: 65/100
State rank: #90
US rank: #13573

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place: Show Low, AZ
County: Navajo · 105,760 people
City population: 18,821
Population (ZIP): 18,821
Household income: $60,313
Rent vs Own: 25.1% rent · 74.9% own
Severe rent burden: 12% of renters

Population outlook (Navajo County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 105,760 people
By 2030: 103,301 · -2.3%
By 2040: 97,070 · -8.2%
By 2050: 88,850 · -16.0%
By 2075: 65,180 · -38.4%
By 2100: 37,281 · -64.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 11% Native American 2%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Navajo

2024 margin: R (+17.2) · D 40.9% · R 58.1%
2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -17.2pp
All cycles: 2024: R+17.2 2020: R+8.2 2016: R+7.9 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -65.52%
Current HPI: 386.3007
Rent YoY: —
Metro: —
State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Technology	2	$13B
#417 ON Semiconductor Scottsdale $7.1B #467 Resideo Technologies Scottsdale $6.1B
Mining / Metals	1	$23B
#174 Freeport-McMoRan Phoenix $23.4B
Environmental Services	1	$16B
#209 Republic Services Phoenix $15.9B
Metals / Steel	1	$14B
#471 Reliance Steel & Aluminum Scottsdale $14.0B
Technology Distribution	1	$9B
#363 Insight Enterprises Chandler $9.4B
Homebuilding	1	$8B
#424 Taylor Morrison Scottsdale $7.7B

Price history

-25.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

2026-06-19 Listed $90,000 WMMLS
2026-04-25 Listing Removed — MLSSAZ
2026-02-23 Price Changed $110,000 MLSSAZ
2026-02-09 Listed $120,000 MLSSAZ

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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