4012 Shady Hammock Dr · Willow Oak, FL 33860

$204,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,728 sqft · Manufactured public records · 77 Days on market

Built 1992 0.50 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.8/30.0
• DSCR +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

DOUBLEWIDE, SOLD AS IS. 4/2, NEEDS TLC. PROPERTY IS SOLD 'AS IS' AND 'WHERE IS' WITH NO REPRESENTATIONS OR WARRANTIES. SPECIAL ADDENDUMS MAY BE REQUIRED. PLEASE CALL OFFICE. PLEASE ALLOW UP TO 5 WORKING DAYS FOR SELLER TO RESPOND TO OFFERS. PRE-QUALIFICATION LETTER AND PROOF OF FUNDS TO CLOSE REQUIRED WITH OFFER. CLOSING DATE STRICTLY ENFORCED. INFORMATION NOT GUARANTEED-BUYER RESPONSIBLE FOR VERIFYING ALL.

Key facts

• Split-bedroom layout
• Doublewide with land
• No hoa or cdd fees

Tags

• DOUBLEWIDE WITH LAND
• FULLY FENCED LOT
• NO HOA OR CDD FEES
• OPEN LIVING AND DINING AREA
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• SPLIT-BEDROOM LAYOUT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Half-acre lot (0.5 acres)
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (2 spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Public utilities
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; One story; Faces north
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Block foundation; Built as manufactured home
• Exterior features: Deck; Shed(s); Other exterior features; Paved lot; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Thermostat; Walk-in closet(s); Inside utility
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $205k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $559 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $205k).
• Recommended offer: $193k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#579 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 180 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($193k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $205k implies a 128% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $192,606 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.70%
• DSCR: 1.52
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.59% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.98×
• Total profit: $-883
• Equity at exit: $30,551

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.56×
• Total profit: $31,909
• Equity at exit: $17,716

Cash invested: $57,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33860

• Home prices YoY: -22.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 180
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,330 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,075
• Tax from tax record: −$122 /mo · $1,461/yr
• Insurance: −$85
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$489
• Net cashflow: $559

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,622

Max offer price $204,900

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,225
• Closing costs: $6,147
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2937 Coach Lamp Rd Mulberry, FL	3.0	2.0	1454	$2,135	$1.47	3d	1	1.03mi
3487 Imperial Manor Way Mulberry, FL	4.0	2.0	1813	$2,346	$1.29	3d	1	1.14mi
3439 Imperial Manor Way Mulberry, FL	3.0	2.0	1286	$1,960	$1.52	13d	1	1.27mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-11
   price $204,900
3. 2026-03-08
   price $210,000
4. 2026-03-06
   price $204,900
5. 2026-02-18
   listed $210,000 Active
6. 2006-10-12
   soldstatus $89,900
7. 2004-12-23
   soldstatus $45,000 410-char remark

   Show marketing remark (410 chars)

   DOUBLEWIDE, SOLD AS IS. 4/2, NEEDS TLC. PROPERTY IS SOLD 'AS IS' AND 'WHERE IS' WITH NO REPRESENTATIONS OR WARRANTIES. SPECIAL ADDENDUMS MAY BE REQUIRED. PLEASE CALL OFFICE. PLEASE ALLOW UP TO 5 WORKING DAYS FOR SELLER TO RESPOND TO OFFERS. PRE-QUALIFICATION LETTER AND PROOF OF FUNDS TO CLOSE REQUIRED WITH OFFER. CLOSING DATE STRICTLY ENFORCED. INFORMATION NOT GUARANTEED-BUYER RESPONSIBLE FOR VERIFYING ALL.

8. 2004-06-10
   listed $49,900 410-char remark

   Show marketing remark (410 chars)

   DOUBLEWIDE, SOLD AS IS. 4/2, NEEDS TLC. PROPERTY IS SOLD 'AS IS' AND 'WHERE IS' WITH NO REPRESENTATIONS OR WARRANTIES. SPECIAL ADDENDUMS MAY BE REQUIRED. PLEASE CALL OFFICE. PLEASE ALLOW UP TO 5 WORKING DAYS FOR SELLER TO RESPOND TO OFFERS. PRE-QUALIFICATION LETTER AND PROOF OF FUNDS TO CLOSE REQUIRED WITH OFFER. CLOSING DATE STRICTLY ENFORCED. INFORMATION NOT GUARANTEED-BUYER RESPONSIBLE FOR VERIFYING ALL.

9. 2000-05-12
   soldstatus $62,500
10. 1991-11-01
    soldstatus $13,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,461 · $122/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,701 · $142/mo
• Expected delta: +$240/yr (+$20/mo · 16.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,965
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,478
• − Property taxes: −$1,461
• − Insurance: −$1,024
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,237
• − Management: −$2,237
• − Depreciation: −$5,961
• Taxable income: $3,567
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$856
• After-tax cash flow: $5,857/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Willow Oak

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #579
• US rank: #11029

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Willow Oak, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,892
• Household income: $65,710
• Rent vs Own: 30.7% rent · 69.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 583.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 12% Black 10% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 7% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -101.08%
• Current HPI: 349.7266
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1417.8% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $204,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-08 Price Changed $210,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $204,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-18 Listed $210,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-10-12 Sold (Public Records) $89,900 Public Records
• 2004-12-23 Sold (MLS) $45,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-06-10 Listed $49,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-05-12 Sold (Public Records) $62,500 Public Records
• 1991-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $13,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,461 · +11.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.