15302 123rd Avenue Ct E #41 · South Hill, WA 98374

$154,950

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,398 sqft · Manufactured public records · 55 Days on market

Built 1993 $111/sqft · 61% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Price improvement! Enjoy easy, low-maintenance living in this beautifully updated 3-bedroom, 2-bath manufactured home located in a sought-after 55+ community on South Hill. Situated on a premium lot, this home features attractive landscaping, a private patio ideal for relaxing or entertaining, and a storage shed with electricity for added convenience. Inside, you'll find a bright, open-concept floor plan with vaulted ceilings and abundant natural light from skylights. Recent updates include luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout the main living areas and updated lighting in the kitchen and dining spaces. The stunning remodeled kitchen showcases new cabinetry, quartz countertops, a stylish

Key facts

• Private patio
• Vaulted ceilings
• Open-concept layout

Tags

• UPDATED MANUFACTURED HOME
• PRIVATE PATIO
• STORAGE SHED WITH ELECTRICITY
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• NATURAL LIGHT FROM SKYLIGHTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $155k).
• Recommended offer: $150k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.9% vs local median 3.0% in South Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#84 in WA, #1,620 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D+, cost of living F.
• Puyallup School District (suburban): math 53% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #52 of 291 in WA (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.7%/yr); 440 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,209 units permitted in Pierce County in 2024 (1,269 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($113k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pierce County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.7% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $150,301 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.87% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.30%
• DSCR: 2.53
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $395,103
• List price: $154,950
• Delta: -60.78%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15410 123rd Avenue Ct E #47	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-4%)	11mo	$174,000	$129	82
15410 122nd Avenue Ct E #9	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,400 (+0%)	20mo	$215,000	$154	80
15208 123rd Avenue Ct E #39	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,290 (-8%)	13mo	$195,000	$151	73
15406 122nd Avenue Ct E #8	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+8%)	15mo	$190,000	$126	72
16124 120th Ave E	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,316 (-6%)	4mo	$440,000	$334	63
16126 120th Ave E	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-4%)	11mo	$362,000	$269	60
16210 118th Avenue Ct E	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-7%)	11mo	$425,000	$328	50
13210 152nd Street Ct E	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-7%)	11mo	$480,000	$370	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.72% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.16×
• Total profit: $50,227
• Equity at exit: $23,104

10-year hold

• IRR: 35.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.02×
• Total profit: $130,833
• Equity at exit: $13,397

Cash invested: $43,386 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98374

• Rents YoY: 1.7%
• Active inventory: 440
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,899 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$173 /mo · $2,072/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$609
• Net cashflow: $1,240

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,329

Max offer price $154,950

Occupancy floor 52%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,738
• Closing costs: $4,648
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11013 144th Street Ct E Unit O24-6-B Puyallup, WA	3.0	1.5	1400	$2,450	$1.75	44d	1	0.97mi
17023 121st Ave E Puyallup, WA	3.0	3.0	1837	$4,500	$2.45	44d	1	1.11mi
12615 172nd St E Puyallup, WA	3.0	2.0	1298	$2,600	$2.00	2d	1	1.19mi
12415 172nd St E Puyallup, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1091	$2,930	$2.69	2d	11	1.23mi
17246 117th Ave E Puyallup, WA	3.0	2.5	1775	$2,750	$1.55	44d	1	1.33mi
10511 140th Street Ct E #27 Puyallup, WA	3.0	3.0	1311	$2,650	$2.02	24d	1	1.39mi
10414 140th St Ct E Puyallup, WA	4.0	2.5	1407	$2,595	$1.84	2d	1	1.43mi
12020 Sunrise Blvd E Puyallup, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	961	$2,623	$2.73	2d	24	1.49mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $154,950 Active 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $154,950 Active 54 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $154,950 Active 53 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $154,950 Active 52 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $154,950 Active 50 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $154,950 Active 49 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $154,950 Active 46 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $154,950 Active 45 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $154,950 Active 44 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $164,990 Active 41 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $164,990 Active 40 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $164,990 Active 39 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $164,990 Active 38 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $164,990 Active 37 DOM
15. 2026-05-15
    status Active
16. 2026-05-13
    status Pending
17. 2026-04-22
    listed $164,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,072 · $173/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,072 · $173/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,785
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,680
• − Property taxes: −$2,072
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,783
• − Management: −$2,783
• − Depreciation: −$4,508
• Taxable income: $13,186
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,165
• After-tax cash flow: $11,718/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Puyallup School District
• NCES district ID: 5306960
• Math proficiency: 53% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $68,291
• Composite: 54.01/100
• National rank: #3006
• State rank: #52 of 291 in WA

Livability — South Hill

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #84
• US rank: #1620

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute A- Cost of living F Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: South Hill, WA
• County: Pierce County · 788,257 people
• City population: 76,707
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• Population (ZIP): 49,007
• Household income: $112,662
• Rent vs Own: 29.5% rent · 70.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1171.0

Population outlook (Pierce County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 956,648 people
• By 2030: 1,010,862 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,113,170 · +16.4%
• By 2050: 1,206,524 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,436,425 · +50.2%
• By 2100: 1,563,654 · +63.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Two or more races 16% Hispanic / Latino 13% Asian 7% Black 4% Native American 1% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pierce

• 2024 margin: D (+10.8) · D 53.9% · R 43.1% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.4pp toward R · 2008: 12.2pp · 2024: 10.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.8 2020: D+11.2 2016: D+7.5 2012: D+11.0 2008: D+12.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -431.48%
• Current HPI: 286.6617
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.72%
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-13 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-22 Listed $164,990 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+24.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,072 · +5.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.