5442 N Rocky Fork Dr · Columbia, MO 65202

$139,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1975 10,000 sqft lot Est $208k · 33% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.2/10.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cute home in the Clearview subdivision. Three bedrooms and a bathroom on the main level. Unfinished basement great for work space or finish it out for extra room. Newer flooring throughout living areas and in the kitchen and newer cabinets.

Key facts

• Solar panels
• 0.23 acre lot
• Built 1975

Tags

• SOLAR PANELS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot dimensions approximately 80 x 125

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; Fixer condition
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Built with a full basement
• Exterior features: Deck

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (electric); Cooling present
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Full basement with walk-out access
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $379 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $138k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 2.9% in Columbia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#9 in MO, #862 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D+.
• Columbia 93 (urban): math 30% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #194 of 324 in MO (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.0%/yr); 351 active listings in the ZIP; 34 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 71% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,303 units permitted in Boone County in 2024 (549 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Boone County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($138k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $137,801 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.60%
• DSCR: 1.52
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $208,440
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
225 E Clearview Dr	0.16mi	3/1.0	960 (-11%)	9mo	$179,999	$187	67
184 E Tully Ct	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,192 (+10%)	2mo	$230,000	$193	66
240 E Tully Ct	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,192 (+10%)	7mo	$229,900	$193	62
228 E Clearview Dr	0.18mi	3/1.0	960 (-11%)	23mo	$175,000	$182	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.96% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $6,393
• Equity at exit: $20,860

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.49×
• Total profit: $58,191
• Equity at exit: $12,096

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65202

• Rents YoY: 6.0%
• Active inventory: 351
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,618 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$108 /mo · $1,292/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$340
• Net cashflow: $379

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,139

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 34 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6 Copper Mountain Dr Columbia, MO	3.0	2.0	1430	$1,750	$1.22	13d	1	0.30mi
1071 Kathryn Unit 3 Columbia, MO	2.0	1.0	750	$950	$1.27	43d	1	0.94mi
1405 Greensboro Dr Columbia, MO	4.0	3.0	1420	$1,495	$1.05	21d	1	1.10mi
5309-5311 Currituck Ln Columbia, MO	4.0	3.0	1402	$1,495	$1.07	43d	1	1.11mi
5307 Currituck Ln Columbia, MO	4.0	3.0	1402	$1,495	$1.07	43d	1	1.11mi
5305 Currituck Ln Unit 5305 Columbia, MO	4.0	3.0	1402	$1,495	$1.07	13d	1	1.11mi
5305 Currituck Ln Columbia, MO	4.0	3.0	1402	$1,495	$1.07	43d	1	1.11mi
5301 Currituck Ln Columbia, MO	4.0	3.0	1374	$1,495	$1.09	43d	1	1.12mi
5211 Currituck Ln Columbia, MO	4.0	3.0	1402	$1,495	$1.07	43d	1	1.12mi
1403 Bodie Dr Columbia, MO	4.0	3.0	1402	$1,495	$1.07	43d	1	1.13mi
1401-1403 Bodie Dr Columbia, MO	4.0	3.0	1402	$1,495	$1.07	21d	1	1.13mi
1413 Greensboro Dr Columbia, MO	4.0	3.0	1420	$1,495	$1.05	13d	1	1.13mi
1417 Bodie Dr Columbia, MO	4.0	3.0	1402	$1,495	$1.07	44d	1	1.16mi
1419 Bodie Dr Columbia, MO	4.0	3.0	1402	$1,495	$1.07	43d	1	1.17mi
1427 Greensboro Dr Columbia, MO	4.0	3.0	1420	$1,495	$1.05	13d	1	1.17mi
655 Country Squire Ct Unit 655 Columbia, MO	3.0	2.0	1283	$1,350	$1.05	21d	1	1.18mi
1424 Bodie Dr Columbia, MO	3.0	2.0	1393	$1,750	$1.26	43d	1	1.20mi
1507 Bodie Dr Columbia, MO	4.0	3.0	1402	$1,495	$1.07	43d	1	1.21mi
1432 Bodie Dr Columbia, MO	3.0	2.0	1393	$1,750	$1.26	43d	1	1.21mi
1505 Greensboro Dr Columbia, MO	4.0	3.0	1402	$1,600	$1.14	13d	1	1.21mi
1500 Bodie Dr Columbia, MO	3.0	2.0	1393	$1,750	$1.26	21d	1	1.22mi
1524 Bodie Dr Columbia, MO	3.0	2.0	1393	$1,750	$1.26	43d	1	1.26mi
214 Arctic Wolf Ct Columbia, MO	4.0	3.0	1500	$1,650	$1.10	43d	1	1.35mi
1516 Citadel Dr Columbia, MO	4.0	3.0	1402	$1,495	$1.07	43d	1	1.37mi
4016 Snowy Owl Dr Columbia, MO	4.0	3.0	1464	$1,650	$1.13	43d	1	1.39mi
4013 Snowy Owl Dr Columbia, MO	4.0	3.0	1500	$1,695	$1.13	43d	1	1.39mi
4014 Snowy Owl Dr Columbia, MO	4.0	3.0	1464	$1,650	$1.13	43d	1	1.40mi
4006 Snowy Owl Dr Columbia, MO	4.0	3.0	1464	$1,650	$1.13	43d	1	1.43mi
4001 Snowy Owl Dr Columbia, MO	4.0	3.0	1500	$1,695	$1.13	43d	1	1.43mi
3927 Snowy Owl Dr Columbia, MO	4.0	3.0	1500	$1,695	$1.13	43d	1	1.45mi
1601-1603 Bold Ruler Dr Columbia, MO	3.0	2.0	1128	$1,425	$1.26	13d	1	1.46mi
1605 Bold Ruler Ct Columbia, MO	3.0	2.0	1140	$1,425	$1.25	43d	1	1.46mi
3922 Snowy Owl Dr Columbia, MO	4.0	3.0	1464	$1,650	$1.13	43d	1	1.48mi
1613 Citadel Dr Columbia, MO	2.0	2.5	1250	$1,275	$1.02	43d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $139,900 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,900 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,900 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,900 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,900 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $139,900 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,900 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $139,900 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,900 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $139,900 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $139,900 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $139,900 Active 2 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    remarks 567-char remark
14. 2026-06-03
    listed $139,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,292 · $108/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,357 · $113/mo
• Expected delta: +$65/yr (+$5/mo · 5.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,417
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$1,292
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,553
• − Management: −$1,553
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable income: $2,412
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$579
• After-tax cash flow: $3,965/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Columbia 93
• NCES district ID: 2901000
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,547
• Composite: 31.21/100
• National rank: #6036
• State rank: #194 of 324 in MO

Livability — Columbia

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #9
• US rank: #862

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Boone County · 158,877 people
• City population: 158,877
• Metro: Columbia, MO
• Population (ZIP): 47,327
• Household income: $72,289
• Rent vs Own: 36.8% rent · 63.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1326.0

Population outlook (Boone County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 202,891 people
• By 2030: 217,799 · +7.3%
• By 2040: 246,789 · +21.6%
• By 2050: 276,116 · +36.1%
• By 2075: 348,426 · +71.7%
• By 2100: 400,856 · +97.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 16% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Boone

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 53.9% · R 44.1% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+12.5 2016: D+5.9 2012: D+3.1 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -171.32%
• Current HPI: 205.5154
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.96%
• Metro: Columbia, MO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+133.4% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $139,900 JCMLS
• 2021-11-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-11-10 Sold (MLS) — CBORMLS
• 2021-09-23 Listed $139,000 CBORMLS
• 2004-04-30 Sold (MLS) — CBORMLS
• 2003-12-06 Listed $70,000 CBORMLS
• 2000-06-30 Sold (MLS) — CBORMLS
• 2000-05-18 Listed $59,950 CBORMLS

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,292 · +7.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.