2449 SE 46th Way · Newberry, FL 32693

$156,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,560 sqft · Manufactured public records · 160 Days on market

Built 1984 5.03 ac lot Est $134k · 17% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.4/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +9.6/10.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

This charming 4-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home presents a fantastic opportunity for those wishing to personalize their living space. It is situated on a lovely 5.03-acre lot near the serene Waters Lake. While the property is not directly on the waterfront, it is just a short distance from a convenient access gate that leads to the inviting shores of the lake, surrounded by a park-like feel. A long, private driveway welcomes you to this peaceful retreat, offering a sense of seclusion. Inside, you'll discover a spacious living room filled with natural light, perfect for gatherings and relaxation. The open eat-in kitchen features an island that enhances functionality while framing beautiful views of the lake, making mealtimes an enjoyable experience. To complete this enchanting home, a cozy fireplace adds warmth and ambiance, inviting you to unwind after a long day. Conveniently located near essential amenities, Palms Medical in Bell is just a short drive away, providing necessary medical services. For shopping, Walmart in Chiefland is nearby, while Gainesville is within easy driving distance, offering hospitals, additional shopping, and dining options. Nature lovers will appreciate the proximity to local springs like Hart Springs, Otter Springs, and Ichetucknee Springs State Park, perfect for swimming, kayaking, and enjoying the great outdoors. With its central location to all these amenities, this property truly combines the beauty of nature with the comforts of home and offers a lifestyle of convenience and relaxation. With a little TLC, it can become your dream retreat!

Key facts

• Open eat-in kitchen
• Private driveway
• Access gates

Tags

• 5.03-ACRE LOT
• WATERS LAKE
• PRIVATE DRIVEWAY
• ACCESS GATES
• OPEN EAT-IN KITCHEN
• COZY FIREPLACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $156k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $456 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $156k).
• Recommended offer: $138k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 4.2% in Newberry — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#524 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Gilchrist (rural): math 66% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #9 of 73 in FL (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 199 active listings in the ZIP; 94 units permitted in Gilchrist County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Gilchrist County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $44k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 160 days — a 12% lower offer ($138k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $137,720 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 160 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.50%
• DSCR: 1.56
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $134,160
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4250 SE 20th St	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-10%)	14mo	$121,000	$86	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 33.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.61×
• Total profit: $114,257
• Equity at exit: $140,988

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.8%
• Equity multiple: 8.15×
• Total profit: $313,510
• Equity at exit: $304,045

Cash invested: $43,820 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32693

• Home prices YoY: 14.8%
• Active inventory: 199
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,791 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$821
• Tax from tax record: −$73 /mo · $875/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$376
• Net cashflow: $456

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,214

Max offer price $156,500

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,125
• Closing costs: $4,695
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $156,500 Active 160 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $156,500 Active 159 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $156,500 Active 158 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $156,500 Active 157 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $156,500 Active 155 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $156,500 Active 154 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $156,500 Active 152 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $156,500 Active 151 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $156,500 Active 150 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $156,500 Active 149 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $156,500 Active 146 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $156,500 Active 144 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $156,500 Active 143 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $156,500 Active 142 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $156,500 Active 141 DOM
16. 2026-04-13
    price $156,500 1594-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1594 chars)

    This charming 4-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home presents a fantastic opportunity for those wishing to personalize their living space. It is situated on a lovely 5.03-acre lot near the serene Waters Lake. While the property is not directly on the waterfront, it is just a short distance from a convenient access gate that leads to the inviting shores of the lake, surrounded by a park-like feel. A long, private driveway welcomes you to this peaceful retreat, offering a sense of seclusion. Inside, you'll discover a spacious living room filled with natural light, perfect for gatherings and relaxation. The open eat-in kitchen features an island that enhances functionality while framing beautiful views of the lake, making mealtimes an enjoyable experience. To complete this enchanting home, a cozy fireplace adds warmth and ambiance, inviting you to unwind after a long day. Conveniently located near essential amenities, Palms Medical in Bell is just a short drive away, providing necessary medical services. For shopping, Walmart in Chiefland is nearby, while Gainesville is within easy driving distance, offering hospitals, additional shopping, and dining options. Nature lovers will appreciate the proximity to local springs like Hart Springs, Otter Springs, and Ichetucknee Springs State Park, perfect for swimming, kayaking, and enjoying the great outdoors. With its central location to all these amenities, this property truly combines the beauty of nature with the comforts of home and offers a lifestyle of convenience and relaxation. With a little TLC, it can become your dream retreat!

17. 2026-04-11
    price $163,000 1594-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1594 chars)

    This charming 4-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home presents a fantastic opportunity for those wishing to personalize their living space. It is situated on a lovely 5.03-acre lot near the serene Waters Lake. While the property is not directly on the waterfront, it is just a short distance from a convenient access gate that leads to the inviting shores of the lake, surrounded by a park-like feel. A long, private driveway welcomes you to this peaceful retreat, offering a sense of seclusion. Inside, you'll discover a spacious living room filled with natural light, perfect for gatherings and relaxation. The open eat-in kitchen features an island that enhances functionality while framing beautiful views of the lake, making mealtimes an enjoyable experience. To complete this enchanting home, a cozy fireplace adds warmth and ambiance, inviting you to unwind after a long day. Conveniently located near essential amenities, Palms Medical in Bell is just a short drive away, providing necessary medical services. For shopping, Walmart in Chiefland is nearby, while Gainesville is within easy driving distance, offering hospitals, additional shopping, and dining options. Nature lovers will appreciate the proximity to local springs like Hart Springs, Otter Springs, and Ichetucknee Springs State Park, perfect for swimming, kayaking, and enjoying the great outdoors. With its central location to all these amenities, this property truly combines the beauty of nature with the comforts of home and offers a lifestyle of convenience and relaxation. With a little TLC, it can become your dream retreat!

18. 2026-04-10
    price $156,500 1594-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1594 chars)

    This charming 4-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home presents a fantastic opportunity for those wishing to personalize their living space. It is situated on a lovely 5.03-acre lot near the serene Waters Lake. While the property is not directly on the waterfront, it is just a short distance from a convenient access gate that leads to the inviting shores of the lake, surrounded by a park-like feel. A long, private driveway welcomes you to this peaceful retreat, offering a sense of seclusion. Inside, you'll discover a spacious living room filled with natural light, perfect for gatherings and relaxation. The open eat-in kitchen features an island that enhances functionality while framing beautiful views of the lake, making mealtimes an enjoyable experience. To complete this enchanting home, a cozy fireplace adds warmth and ambiance, inviting you to unwind after a long day. Conveniently located near essential amenities, Palms Medical in Bell is just a short drive away, providing necessary medical services. For shopping, Walmart in Chiefland is nearby, while Gainesville is within easy driving distance, offering hospitals, additional shopping, and dining options. Nature lovers will appreciate the proximity to local springs like Hart Springs, Otter Springs, and Ichetucknee Springs State Park, perfect for swimming, kayaking, and enjoying the great outdoors. With its central location to all these amenities, this property truly combines the beauty of nature with the comforts of home and offers a lifestyle of convenience and relaxation. With a little TLC, it can become your dream retreat!

19. 2026-01-10
    listed $163,000 Active 1594-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1594 chars)

    This charming 4-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home presents a fantastic opportunity for those wishing to personalize their living space. It is situated on a lovely 5.03-acre lot near the serene Waters Lake. While the property is not directly on the waterfront, it is just a short distance from a convenient access gate that leads to the inviting shores of the lake, surrounded by a park-like feel. A long, private driveway welcomes you to this peaceful retreat, offering a sense of seclusion. Inside, you'll discover a spacious living room filled with natural light, perfect for gatherings and relaxation. The open eat-in kitchen features an island that enhances functionality while framing beautiful views of the lake, making mealtimes an enjoyable experience. To complete this enchanting home, a cozy fireplace adds warmth and ambiance, inviting you to unwind after a long day. Conveniently located near essential amenities, Palms Medical in Bell is just a short drive away, providing necessary medical services. For shopping, Walmart in Chiefland is nearby, while Gainesville is within easy driving distance, offering hospitals, additional shopping, and dining options. Nature lovers will appreciate the proximity to local springs like Hart Springs, Otter Springs, and Ichetucknee Springs State Park, perfect for swimming, kayaking, and enjoying the great outdoors. With its central location to all these amenities, this property truly combines the beauty of nature with the comforts of home and offers a lifestyle of convenience and relaxation. With a little TLC, it can become your dream retreat!

20. 2023-04-25
    soldstatus $139,000 Closed 923-char remark

    Show marketing remark (923 chars)

    Waters Lake in Gilchrist county is a lesser known piece of paradise, close to highway 41 and off highway 232. A short drive from Gainesville, is Holly Forest, a quiet subdivision around Waters Lake. This land is NOT waterfront, but the lake is a short distance from one of three access gates onto this beautiful five acre property. A long, paved driveway will lead you to the mobile home which is nested by trees, but nothing crowds the home itself. The home needs work, and will not qualify for financing. But with a little attention and work, it can be a lovely home for someone. There are four bedrooms, and two baths, a large living room, a fireplace and a kitchen with an open plan, with an island and enjoying a view of the beautiful land. Rehab this home, or build your own - the land itself is breathtaking. Please call your Realtor ahead of time to make an appointment. The owner has a dog and needs time to leave.

21. 2023-04-25
    soldstatus $139,000

    Show marketing remark (923 chars)

    Waters Lake in Gilchrist county is a lesser known piece of paradise, close to highway 41 and off highway 232. A short drive from Gainesville, is Holly Forest, a quiet subdivision around Waters Lake. This land is NOT waterfront, but the lake is a short distance from one of three access gates onto this beautiful five acre property. A long, paved driveway will lead you to the mobile home which is nested by trees, but nothing crowds the home itself. The home needs work, and will not qualify for financing. But with a little attention and work, it can be a lovely home for someone. There are four bedrooms, and two baths, a large living room, a fireplace and a kitchen with an open plan, with an island and enjoying a view of the beautiful land. Rehab this home, or build your own - the land itself is breathtaking. Please call your Realtor ahead of time to make an appointment. The owner has a dog and needs time to leave.

22. 2023-04-01
    status Pending 923-char remark

    Show marketing remark (923 chars)

    Waters Lake in Gilchrist county is a lesser known piece of paradise, close to highway 41 and off highway 232. A short drive from Gainesville, is Holly Forest, a quiet subdivision around Waters Lake. This land is NOT waterfront, but the lake is a short distance from one of three access gates onto this beautiful five acre property. A long, paved driveway will lead you to the mobile home which is nested by trees, but nothing crowds the home itself. The home needs work, and will not qualify for financing. But with a little attention and work, it can be a lovely home for someone. There are four bedrooms, and two baths, a large living room, a fireplace and a kitchen with an open plan, with an island and enjoying a view of the beautiful land. Rehab this home, or build your own - the land itself is breathtaking. Please call your Realtor ahead of time to make an appointment. The owner has a dog and needs time to leave.

23. 2022-12-07
    listed $139,000 Active 923-char remark

    Show marketing remark (923 chars)

    Waters Lake in Gilchrist county is a lesser known piece of paradise, close to highway 41 and off highway 232. A short drive from Gainesville, is Holly Forest, a quiet subdivision around Waters Lake. This land is NOT waterfront, but the lake is a short distance from one of three access gates onto this beautiful five acre property. A long, paved driveway will lead you to the mobile home which is nested by trees, but nothing crowds the home itself. The home needs work, and will not qualify for financing. But with a little attention and work, it can be a lovely home for someone. There are four bedrooms, and two baths, a large living room, a fireplace and a kitchen with an open plan, with an island and enjoying a view of the beautiful land. Rehab this home, or build your own - the land itself is breathtaking. Please call your Realtor ahead of time to make an appointment. The owner has a dog and needs time to leave.

24. 2015-03-10
    soldstatus $37,000
25. 1996-08-01
    soldstatus $46,000
26. 1988-01-01
    soldstatus $23,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $875 · $73/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,299 · $108/mo
• Expected delta: +$424/yr (+$35/mo · 48.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,498
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,766
• − Property taxes: −$875
• − Insurance: −$782
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,720
• − Management: −$1,720
• − Depreciation: −$4,553
• Taxable income: $3,082
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$740
• After-tax cash flow: $4,738/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gilchrist
• NCES district ID: 1200630
• Math proficiency: 66% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $39,610
• Composite: 53.01/100
• National rank: #1522
• State rank: #9 of 73 in FL

Livability — Newberry

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #524
• US rank: #9753

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 17,704
• Population (ZIP): 11,692

Population outlook (Gilchrist County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,730 people
• By 2030: 17,722 · +-0.0%
• By 2040: 17,393 · -1.9%
• By 2050: 16,597 · -6.4%
• By 2075: 14,300 · -19.3%
• By 2100: 11,498 · -35.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Gilchrist

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.0) · D 15.6% · R 83.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: -46.8pp · 2024: -68.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.0 2020: R+64.0 2016: R+62.8 2012: R+51.0 2008: R+46.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 46.81%
• Current HPI: 363.4299
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+580.4% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $156,500 DGLMLS
• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $163,000 DGLMLS
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $156,500 DGLMLS
• 2026-01-10 Listed $163,000 DGLMLS
• 2023-04-25 Sold (Public Records) $139,000 Public Records
• 2023-04-25 Sold (MLS) $139,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-04-01 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-12-07 Listed $139,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-03-10 Sold (Public Records) $37,000 Public Records
• 1996-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $46,000 Public Records
• 1988-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $23,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $875 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.