207 Herndon · San Marcos, TX 78666

$110,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 850 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 32 Days on market

Built 1970 3,920 sqft lot $129/sqft · 45% below area Est $201k · 45% under ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Please contact agent #2 with any questions or to submit an offer. LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION! With a two minute drive from Downtown San Marcos and less than a ten minute drive to Texas State, this is the perfect location for an investment opportunity! Please note this property is designated as a historic property. We strongly recommend that you DO NOT go into the home but ENTER AT YOUR OWN RISK. Please use caution as you walk the interior and exterior. There is no pre-existing survey.

Key facts

• Fully gutted
• Large lot
• New foundation piers

Tags

• LARGE LOT
• NEW ROOF
• NEW FOUNDATION PIERS
• FULLY GUTTED
• HIGHLY DESIRABLE LOCATION

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Down payment assistance not indicated

Exterior

• Utilities: Water system available
• Home design: Pre-owned building; Composition roof
• Construction: Approximately 56 years old
• Exterior features: Other building exterior (see remarks)

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen approximately 10 x 10
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom approximately 12 x 12; Second bedroom approximately 10 x 10
• Flooring: Other flooring (see remarks)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Other heating fuel (see remarks)
• Interior features: Recent rehab noted; Other flooring (see remarks); Other heating fuel (see remarks)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $163 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $107k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 3.1% in San Marcos — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#30 in TX, #1,601 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, schools F, employment F.
• San Marcos CISD (rural): math 18% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #731 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 1122 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $761 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($107k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $106,700 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.36%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $201,268
• List price: $110,000
• Delta: -45.35%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1104 Gravel St	0.53mi	2/1.0	756 (-11%)	16mo	$195,000	$258	44
303 Armstrong St	0.49mi	3/2.0 (+1)	939 (+10%)	10mo	$219,900	$234	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-8,702
• Equity at exit: $16,401

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $717
• Equity at exit: $9,511

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78666

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 1122
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,355 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax from tax record: −$284 /mo · $3,413/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$284
• Net cashflow: $163

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,148

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $225	-5% $194	+0% $163	+5% $132	+10% $101
Rent	-10% $56	-5% $110	+0% $163	+5% $217	+10% $270
Rate	-1.0pp $219	-0.5pp $191	base $163	+0.5pp $135	+1.0pp $106

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
609 Martin Luther King Dr Unit 609 San Marcos, TX	2.0	2.0	812	$1,325	$1.63	24d	1	0.03mi
210 Jackman St San Marcos, TX	2.0	1.0	702	$1,500	$2.14	44d	1	0.09mi
421 W San Antonio St Unit J1 San Marcos, TX	2.0	2.0	918	$1,225	$1.33	18d	1	0.12mi
420 W San Antonio St San Marcos, TX	1.0	1.0	700	$1,200	$1.71	44d	1	0.15mi
411 W San Antonio St San Marcos, TX	2.0	2.0–2.5	1117	$2,250	$2.01	2d	4	0.16mi
401 Jackman St San Marcos, TX	2.0	1.0	968	$1,250	$1.29	8d	1	0.17mi
126 Scott St San Marcos, TX	1.0	1.0	660	$960	$1.45	8d	1	0.18mi
140 S Fredericksburg St San Marcos, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	775	$1,590	$2.05	8d	4	0.20mi
302 W San Antonio St San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.0	1065	$1,599	$1.50	24d	1	0.22mi
302 W San Antonio St Unit 101 San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.0	1065	$1,599	$1.50	44d	1	0.22mi
605 W Hutchison St San Marcos, TX	2.0	1.0	769	$1,110	$1.44	8d	1	0.25mi
130 E San Antonio St San Marcos, TX	2.0	1.0	850	$1,150	$1.35	13d	1	0.35mi
130 E San Antonio St Unit B San Marcos, TX	2.0	1.0	850	$1,150	$1.35	17d	1	0.35mi
401 S Guadalupe St San Marcos, TX	3.0	1.0–3.0	664	$1,402	$2.11	4d	20	0.35mi
205 S Mitchell Ave San Marcos, TX	3.0	1.5	1000	$1,310	$1.31	8d	2	0.35mi
202 E San Antonio St San Marcos, TX	1.0	1.0	900	$795	$0.88	44d	1	0.39mi
118 N LBJ Dr Unit 204 San Marcos, TX	1.0	1.0	550	$1,500	$2.73	44d	1	0.41mi
120 N LBJ Dr Unit 118 San Marcos, TX	1.0	1.0	550	$1,500	$2.73	44d	1	0.41mi
118-120 N LBJ Dr Unit 202 San Marcos, TX	1.0	1.0	550	$1,350	$2.45	44d	1	0.41mi
310 Pat Garrison St Unit 3B San Marcos, TX	2.0	2.0	918	$900	$0.98	24d	1	0.42mi
202 N LBJ Dr #202 San Marcos, TX	2.0	1.0	680	$1,895	$2.79	44d	1	0.43mi
202 N LBJ Dr #207 San Marcos, TX	1.0	1.0	680	$1,695	$2.49	44d	1	0.43mi
202 N LBJ Dr San Marcos, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	692	$1,895	$2.74	2d	2	0.43mi
402 N Fredericksburg St San Marcos, TX	2.0	1.0	848	$1,424	$1.68	24d	1	0.46mi
524 S L B J Dr San Marcos, TX	1.0	1.0	950	$1,050	$1.11	5d	1	0.47mi
511 McKie St San Marcos, TX	2.0	2.0	950	$1,450	$1.53	44d	1	0.51mi
606 Georgia St San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.0	1096	$1,495	$1.36	3d	1	0.55mi
314 E Hutchison St San Marcos, TX	2.0	1.0	830	$1,300	$1.57	18d	1	0.55mi
1221 W Hopkins St #13 San Marcos, TX	2.0	1.0	969	$1,195	$1.23	5d	1	0.60mi
1221 W Hopkins St #7 San Marcos, TX	2.0	1.5	928	$900	$0.97	18d	1	0.60mi
1221 W Hopkins St #13 San Marcos, TX	2.0	1.0	969	$1,115	$1.15	13d	1	0.60mi
606 Bracewood Cir Unit C San Marcos, TX	2.0	1.0	810	$895	$1.10	44d	1	0.68mi
802 Perkins St Unit A San Marcos, TX	1.0	1.0	605	$1,195	$1.98	44d	1	0.68mi
835 Old Ranch Road 12 Unit 12 San Marcos, TX	1.0	1.0	630	$1,850	$2.94	44d	1	0.68mi
610 Bracewood Cir San Marcos, TX	2.0	1.0	906	$895	$0.99	44d	1	0.70mi
1106 Jones St San Marcos, TX	2.0	1.0	960	$1,100	$1.15	24d	1	0.71mi
130 Olive St Unit 201B San Marcos, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$950	$1.06	44d	1	0.74mi
130 Olive St San Marcos, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$1,000	$1.11	44d	1	0.74mi
105 Riverside Dr San Marcos, TX	3.0	2.0	1044	$1,950	$1.87	8d	1	0.77mi
707 Bracewood Cir San Marcos, TX	2.0	1.0	810	$995	$1.23	18d	1	0.78mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $110,000 Active 32 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $110,000 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $110,000 Price Change 26 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $110,000 Price Change 25 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $110,000 Price Change 24 DOM
6. 2026-06-05
   days on market $110,000 Price Change 21 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $110,000 Price Change 20 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $110,000 Price Change 19 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   price $110,000 Price Change 18 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Price Change 18 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Price Change 17 DOM
12. 2026-05-14
    listed $125,000 New 794-char remark
13. 2026-05-14
    listed $125,000 Active 792-char remark
14. 2022-07-05
    soldstatus
15. 2022-06-30
    soldstatus Closed

    Show marketing remark (491 chars)

    Please contact agent #2 with any questions or to submit an offer. LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION! With a two minute drive from Downtown San Marcos and less than a ten minute drive to Texas State, this is the perfect location for an investment opportunity! Please note this property is designated as a historic property. We strongly recommend that you DO NOT go into the home but ENTER AT YOUR OWN RISK. Please use caution as you walk the interior and exterior. There is no pre-existing survey.

16. 2022-06-25
    soldstatus Sold
17. 2022-05-04
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (491 chars)

    Please contact agent #2 with any questions or to submit an offer. LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION! With a two minute drive from Downtown San Marcos and less than a ten minute drive to Texas State, this is the perfect location for an investment opportunity! Please note this property is designated as a historic property. We strongly recommend that you DO NOT go into the home but ENTER AT YOUR OWN RISK. Please use caution as you walk the interior and exterior. There is no pre-existing survey.

18. 2022-04-12
    status Pending
19. 2022-04-11
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (491 chars)

    Please contact agent #2 with any questions or to submit an offer. LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION! With a two minute drive from Downtown San Marcos and less than a ten minute drive to Texas State, this is the perfect location for an investment opportunity! Please note this property is designated as a historic property. We strongly recommend that you DO NOT go into the home but ENTER AT YOUR OWN RISK. Please use caution as you walk the interior and exterior. There is no pre-existing survey.

20. 2022-04-07
    listed $125,000 New

    Show marketing remark (491 chars)

    Please contact agent #2 with any questions or to submit an offer. LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION! With a two minute drive from Downtown San Marcos and less than a ten minute drive to Texas State, this is the perfect location for an investment opportunity! Please note this property is designated as a historic property. We strongly recommend that you DO NOT go into the home but ENTER AT YOUR OWN RISK. Please use caution as you walk the interior and exterior. There is no pre-existing survey.

21. 2022-04-07
    listed $125,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (491 chars)

    Please contact agent #2 with any questions or to submit an offer. LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION! With a two minute drive from Downtown San Marcos and less than a ten minute drive to Texas State, this is the perfect location for an investment opportunity! Please note this property is designated as a historic property. We strongly recommend that you DO NOT go into the home but ENTER AT YOUR OWN RISK. Please use caution as you walk the interior and exterior. There is no pre-existing survey.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,413 · $284/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,413 · $284/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,256
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$3,413
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,300
• − Management: −$1,300
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable income: $331
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$79
• After-tax cash flow: $1,878/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Marcos CISD
• NCES district ID: 4838970
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $34,538
• Composite: 20.11/100
• National rank: #8644
• State rank: #731 of 826 in TX

Livability — San Marcos

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #30
• US rank: #1601

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A- Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Marcos, TX
• County: Hays County · 280,138 people
• City population: 88,583
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 88,583
• Household income: $54,737
• Rent vs Own: 61.9% rent · 38.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 6504.0

Population outlook (Hays County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,948 people
• By 2030: 336,923 · +17.4%
• By 2040: 441,894 · +54.0%
• By 2050: 553,462 · +92.9%
• By 2075: 838,261 · +192.1%
• By 2100: 1,063,658 · +270.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Hispanic / Latino 44% Two or more races 20% Black 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 24% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hays

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.7) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.7pp toward D · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: 5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.7 2020: D+10.8 2016: R+0.9 2012: R+10.4 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -108.27%
• Current HPI: 187.6679
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-12.0% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2026-06-15 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2026-06-02 Price Changed $110,000 LERA
• 2026-06-01 Price Changed $110,000 CTXMLS
• 2026-05-25 Price Changed $120,000 LERA
• 2026-05-24 Price Changed $120,000 CTXMLS
• 2026-05-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-05-14 Listed $125,000 LERA
• 2026-05-14 Listed $125,000 CTXMLS
• 2022-07-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-06-30 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS
• 2022-06-25 Sold (MLS) — LERA
• 2022-05-04 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2022-04-12 Pending — LERA
• 2022-04-11 Pending — Unlock MLS
• 2022-04-07 Listed $125,000 LERA
• 2022-04-07 Listed $125,000 Unlock MLS

Property tax history

+8.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,413 · -19.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.