5309 Marjorie St · Weldon, CA 93283

$110,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 520 sqft · Manufactured public records · 245 Days on market

Built 1965 0.74 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.9/30.0
• Appreciation +9.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.4/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this unique property in the desirable Valley Estates subdivision! Situated on almost three-quarters of an acre, this fully fenced and all usable lot is zoned for large animals and ready for your rural lifestyle dreams. The original singlewide mobile home offers 2 bedrooms + 1 bathroom, while the spacious addition includes another bedroom, a large bathroom with laundry area, and a versatile bonus room " perfect for an office, hobby space, or guest area. The kitchen includes a built in microwave, dishwasher, fridge. Large living room with covered deck entry. Outside, you'll find a detached 2-car garage, two storage sheds, and a concrete pad ideal for a kennel, garden workshop,

Key facts

• Concrete pad
• Two storage sheds
• Fully fenced lot

Tags

• FULLY FENCED LOT
• ZONED FOR LARGE ANIMALS
• DETACHED 2 CAR GARAGE
• TWO STORAGE SHEDS
• CONCRETE PAD
• USABLE LAND

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Horses allowed; Zoning: E (1/2) RS MH; Subdivision: Valley Estates; Directions available
• HOA & community: Water service provided (association)

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Utilities: Electricity available; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-wide mobile home; Single-story
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Fenced yard; View; Shed(s); RV/Boat storage; Private maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Includes dishwasher, microwave, range/oven, refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Evaporative cooling
• Interior features: Dishwasher, Microwave, Range, Oven, Refrigerator; Carpet flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $12 ($148/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $90k (18.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $90k (18.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 5.0% in Weldon — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 48/100 on livability (#1,218 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A-, housing B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• South Fork Union (rural): math 25% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #1,016 of 1,400 in CA (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($761 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (8.7% local appreciation)).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (8.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 245 days — a 12% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $110k implies a 214% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $90,017 (18.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 245 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.48%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.65% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.65×
• Total profit: $50,707
• Equity at exit: $88,495

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.77×
• Total profit: $146,864
• Equity at exit: $180,578

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93283

• Home prices YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 41
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $900 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax from tax record: −$76 /mo · $913/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$189
• Net cashflow: $12

Break-even live

Break-even rent $885

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $75	-5% $44	+0% $12	+5% $-19	+10% $-50
Rent	-10% $-59	-5% $-23	+0% $12	+5% $48	+10% $83
Rate	-1.0pp $68	-0.5pp $40	base $12	+0.5pp $-16	+1.0pp $-45

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $110,000 Active 245 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $110,000 Active 244 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $110,000 Active 243 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $110,000 Active 242 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $110,000 Active 241 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $110,000 Active 239 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $110,000 Active 238 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $110,000 Active 236 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $110,000 Active 235 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $110,000 Active 234 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $110,000 Active 233 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $110,000 Active 231 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $110,000 Active 230 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $110,000 Active 229 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $110,000 Active 228 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $110,000 Active 227 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $110,000 Active 226 DOM
18. 2026-05-28
    status Active
19. 2026-05-28
    price $110,000
20. 2025-10-22
    price $119,500
21. 2025-09-16
    listed $125,000 Active
22. 1996-08-30
    soldstatus $35,000
23. 1990-12-12
    soldstatus $25,000
24. 1988-08-04
    soldstatus $10,000
25. 1983-03-22
    soldstatus $15,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $913 · $76/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $913 · $76/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 18 unhealthy d/yr today · 22 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,802
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$913
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$864
• − Management: −$864
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable loss: −$1,751
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$420
• After-tax cash flow: $569/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: South Fork Union
• NCES district ID: 0637470
• Math proficiency: 25% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $32,532
• Composite: 29.31/100
• National rank: #11836
• State rank: #1016 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Weldon

• Score: 48/100
• State rank: #1218
• US rank: #26156

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime C+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Weldon, CA
• Population (ZIP): 2,129

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 7% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 13% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.65%
• Current HPI: 468.8712
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+633.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Relisted — SSMLS
• 2026-05-28 Price Changed $110,000 SSMLS
• 2025-10-22 Price Changed $119,500 SSMLS
• 2025-09-16 Listed $125,000 SSMLS
• 1996-08-30 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records
• 1990-12-12 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records
• 1988-08-04 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records
• 1983-03-22 Sold (Public Records) $15,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $913 · -0.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.