2920 Ferris Dr · Navarre, FL 32566

$160,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 784 sqft · Manufactured public records · 27 Days on market

Built 1981 0.29 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

well-integrated homestead that emphasizes both durability and functional workspace. The main residence features a unique "three-floor" ground-level layout and a sturdy three-wall construction, all refreshed with new siding and a brand-new porch for improved curb appeal and outdoor living. The property is fully secured by a perimeter fence that encloses the entire yard, which houses a massive 20x20 ft shed. This 400-square-foot secondary structure provides a substantial area for heavy-duty storage or a dedicated workshop, transforming the lot into a private, fortified compound designed for serious utility.

Key facts

• Updated electrical
• New meter
• Brand-new porch

Tags

• UPDATED ELECTRICAL
• NEW METER
• METAL ROLLED ROOF
• PEEL-AND-SEAL INSULATION
• BRAND-NEW PORCH
• 20 X 20 STORAGE SHED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot is interior and level; Lot dimensions approximately 194 x 135; Lot size about 0.29 acres

Exterior

• Utilities: Electric; Public water
• Home design: Mobile home (residential); Construction complete; County road frontage; Zoned for mobile home or single-family residential
• Construction: Built in 1981
• Exterior features: BBQ pit/grill; Yard building

Interior

• Kitchen: Smooth electric stovetop; Electric stove/oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Has cooling
• Interior features: One-story layout; Smooth electric stovetop; Electric stove/oven; Refrigerator

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $175 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $158k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 4.2% in Navarre — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#435 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A, crime A-; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Santa Rosa (suburban): math 63% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #8 of 73 in FL (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: East Bay K-8 School (1,032 students, 31% FRL); Navarre High School (math 49% / reading 58%, grade C-, #146 of 667 statewide, top 22%, 2,406 students, 30% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 768 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,983 units permitted in Santa Rosa County in 2024 (128 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Rosa County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $26k; list at $160k implies a 515% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $157,600 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.69%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $105,056
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2919 Ferris Dr	0.03mi	2/2.0 (+1)	858 (+9%)	15mo	$115,000	$134	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.74% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-15,169
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-471
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32566

• Home prices YoY: -26.2%
• Rents YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 768
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,621 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$200 /mo · $2,400/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$340
• Net cashflow: $175

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,400

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $286	-5% $230	+0% $175	+5% $120	+10% $65
Rent	-10% $47	-5% $111	+0% $175	+5% $239	+10% $303
Rate	-1.0pp $256	-0.5pp $216	base $175	+0.5pp $134	+1.0pp $92

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $160,000 Active 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $160,000 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $160,000 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $170,000 Active 24 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $170,000 Active 22 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $170,000 Active 19 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $170,000 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $170,000 Active 17 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $170,000 Active 16 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $170,000 Active 13 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $170,000 Active 12 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $170,000 Active 11 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $170,000 Active 10 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $170,000 Active 9 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $170,000 Active 8 DOM
16. 2026-05-21
    listed $170,000 Active
17. 2026-05-12
    listed $175,000 Active 622-char remark

    Show marketing remark (622 chars)

    well-integrated homestead that emphasizes both durability and functional workspace. The main residence features a unique "three-floor" ground-level layout and a sturdy three-wall construction, all refreshed with new siding and a brand-new porch for improved curb appeal and outdoor living. The property is fully secured by a perimeter fence that encloses the entire yard, which houses a massive 20x20 ft shed. This 400-square-foot secondary structure provides a substantial area for heavy-duty storage or a dedicated workshop, transforming the lot into a private, fortified compound designed for serious utility.

18. 1998-11-20
    soldstatus $26,000
19. 1987-08-01
    soldstatus $13,900
20. 1985-11-01
    soldstatus $10,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 2/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 3% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,457
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$2,400
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,557
• − Management: −$1,557
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable loss: −$474
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$114
• After-tax cash flow: $2,216/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa
• NCES district ID: 1201650
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,161
• Composite: 53.12/100
• National rank: #1511
• State rank: #8 of 73 in FL

Livability — Navarre

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #435
• US rank: #7790

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A- Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Navarre, FL
• County: Santa Rosa County · 194,764 people
• City population: 43,883
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 43,883
• Household income: $105,551
• Rent vs Own: 17.5% rent · 82.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 608.0

Population outlook (Santa Rosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 195,978 people
• By 2030: 209,782 · +7.0%
• By 2040: 235,293 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 256,408 · +30.8%
• By 2075: 298,074 · +52.1%
• By 2100: 303,216 · +54.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 9% Black 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 3% Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Rosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.0) · D 24.1% · R 75.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: -47.9pp · 2024: -51.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.0 2020: R+46.5 2016: R+53.5 2012: R+52.6 2008: R+47.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.87%
• Current HPI: 298.6821
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.74%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1600.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $170,000 NAMLS
• 2026-05-12 Listed $175,000 FSBO.com
• 1998-11-20 Sold (Public Records) $26,000 Public Records
• 1987-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $13,900 Public Records
• 1985-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.3%/yr

Latest (2023): $140 · +6.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.