1531 Toy St SE · Palm Bay, FL 32909

$281,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,273 sqft · Land · 53 Days on market

Built 2026 10,019 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks

Pre-Construction. To Be Built. Discover the perfect balance of suburban comfort and coastal adventure in The Poinsettia, a masterfully planned retreat in Palm Bay. Ideally located just 15 minutes from the Atlantic Ocean and the scenic Indian River, this home places you at the center of a vibrant lifestyle filled with boating, fishing, and exploring 29 local parks. The journey begins in a welcoming foyer that leads into an expansive open-concept great room, a bright and inviting hub designed for effortless gathering. This central heart flows into a chef-inspired kitchen featuring stainless steel appliances, a walk-in pantry, and a sun-drenched dining nook. Designed for ultimate privacy, the

Key facts

• Welcoming foyer
• 29 local parks
• Walk-in pantry

Tags

• 29 LOCAL PARKS
• WELCOMING FOYER
• OPEN-CONCEPT GREAT ROOM
• CHEF-INSPIRED KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• WALK-IN PANTRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $282k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-333 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $234k (17.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $204k (27.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $204k (27.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#366 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, health & safety D-.
• Brevard (suburban): math 53% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #19 of 73 in FL (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Columbia Elementary School (math 52% / reading 47%, grade D, #1,088 of 2,144 statewide, top 53%, 506 students, 68% FRL); Stone Magnet Middle School (math 33% / reading 35%, grade F, #426 of 571 statewide, top 75%, 670 students, 69% FRL); Bayside High School (math 27% / reading 40%, grade F, #400 of 667 statewide, top 61%, 1,854 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools average 63% FRL vs 43% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 39% at this address vs 55% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Brevard average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 1111 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,602 units permitted in Brevard County in 2024 (702 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $30k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Brevard County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$48k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($273k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $92k; list at $282k implies a 207% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $204,451 (27.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.06%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.69×
• Total profit: $133,740
• Equity at exit: $253,958

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.24×
• Total profit: $413,477
• Equity at exit: $547,670

Cash invested: $78,932 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32909

• Home prices YoY: 6.0%
• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 1111
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,045 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,478
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$352 /mo · $4,228/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$429
• Net cashflow: $-333

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,466

Max offer price $233,717

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,475
• Closing costs: $8,457
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1430 Valerius St SE Palm Bay, FL	2.0	1.0	904	$1,750	$1.94	23d	1	0.19mi
1625 Waneta St SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1631	$2,100	$1.29	19d	1	0.24mi
1674 Waltz St SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1262	$1,831	$1.45	14d	1	0.33mi
1530 Paley Cir SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1842	$2,095	$1.14	14d	1	0.33mi
1490 Van Buren Ave SE Palm Bay, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,600	$1.78	23d	1	0.38mi
1418 Paley Cir SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1260	$1,850	$1.47	23d	1	0.49mi
1150 Raoul St SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1787	$2,300	$1.29	23d	1	0.68mi
1150 Tiger St SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1690	$1,950	$1.15	14d	1	0.75mi
1068 Saint Johns St SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1332	$2,000	$1.50	23d	1	0.77mi
2036 Walsh Ave SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1331	$1,930	$1.45	23d	1	0.82mi
1517 Wacker Ave SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1775	$2,200	$1.24	23d	1	0.83mi
1643 Talavera St SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1833	$1,861	$1.02	19d	1	0.93mi
1210 Vandalia Ave SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1833	$2,050	$1.12	14d	1	0.98mi
1630 Agnes Ave SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	924	$1,749	$1.89	19d	1	1.01mi
1625 Santos St SE Unit A Palm Bay, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,350	$1.50	19d	1	1.18mi
1255 Wadsworth St SE Unit 1255 Palm Bay, FL	3.0	3.0	1747	$2,350	$1.35	19d	1	1.20mi
2910 Emerson Dr SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1700	$1,950	$1.15	14d	1	1.26mi
1660 Lizette St SE Unit 1 Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1736	$2,199	$1.27	23d	1	1.27mi
1454 Graves St SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1621	$2,100	$1.30	14d	1	1.29mi
818 Seven Gables Cir SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1490	$1,795	$1.20	23d	1	1.39mi
822 Seven Gables Cir SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,835	$1.24	23d	1	1.40mi
1416 Martinez St SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1747	$2,000	$1.14	14d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-04-29
   soldstatus $91,677
2. 2026-04-03
   status Pending
3. 2026-03-06
   price $281,900
4. 2026-02-20
   price $282,900
5. 2026-02-09
   listed $279,990 Active
6. 2025-09-16
   soldstatus $34,000
7. 2020-06-29
   historical
8. 2019-12-29
   listed $34,900 Active
9. 2004-05-19
   soldstatus $14,900
10. 2003-10-30
    listed $14,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,534
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,791
• − Property taxes: −$4,228
• − Insurance: −$1,410
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,963
• − Management: −$1,963
• − Depreciation: −$8,201
• Taxable loss: −$9,021
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,165
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,831/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brevard
• NCES district ID: 1200150
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,426
• Composite: 46.86/100
• National rank: #2370
• State rank: #19 of 73 in FL

Livability — Palm Bay

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #366
• US rank: #6458

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C+ Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Palm Bay, FL
• County: Brevard County · 602,871 people
• City population: 132,211
• Metro: Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 41,804
• Household income: $79,977
• Rent vs Own: 17.3% rent · 82.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 697.0

Population outlook (Brevard County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 623,254 people
• By 2030: 648,420 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 690,009 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 715,669 · +14.8%
• By 2075: 775,744 · +24.5%
• By 2100: 776,687 · +24.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 46% Black 21% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 16% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 5%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brevard

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 39.1% · R 59.9% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.4pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+16.4 2016: R+19.8 2012: R+12.7 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 18.81%
• Current HPI: 330.8595
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.67%
• Metro: Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+515.3% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Sold (Public Records) $91,677 Public Records
• 2026-04-03 Pending — SCMLS
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $281,900 SCMLS
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $282,900 SCMLS
• 2026-02-09 Listed $279,990 SCMLS
• 2025-09-16 Sold (Public Records) $34,000 Public Records
• 2020-06-29 Listing Removed — MCRTC
• 2019-12-29 Listed $34,900 MCRTC
• 2004-05-19 Sold (MLS) $14,900 SCMLS
• 2003-10-30 Listed $14,900 SCMLS

Property tax history

+11.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $330 · +9.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.