1333 Southlea Dr · South Bend, IN 46628

$159,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 1971 8,276 sqft lot Est $200k · 20% under ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Located in the popular Riverside Manor Subdivision, this move-in ready 3 bedroom, 1 bath home is ready for its new owner. New flooring and paint throughout. New high efficiency furnace and price includes new stainless steel stove and refrigerator.

Key facts

• New flooring
• New paint
• 8,276 sq ft lot

Tags

• NEW FLOORING
• NEW PAINT
• NEW HIGH EFFICIENCY FURNACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $225 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $155k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 4.4% in South Bend — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#365 in IN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, employment D, crime F.
• South Bend Community School Corporation (urban): math 12% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #284 of 301 in IN (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Coquillard Elementary School (math 2% / reading 2%, grade F, #989 of 994 statewide, top 100%, 343 students, 89% FRL); Washington High School (math 12% / reading 42%, grade F, #315 of 369 statewide, top 86%, 834 students, 79% FRL) — zoned schools average 84% FRL vs 66% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.8%/yr); 424 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 754 units permitted in St. Joseph County in 2024 (460 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.8% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $155,103 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.04%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $200,448
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1333 Southlea Dr	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,152 (0%)	1mo	$143,000	$124	99
1512 Southlea Dr	0.09mi	3/1.5	1,169 (+2%)	3mo	$180,000	$154	89
3816 Glenview Dr	0.13mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,152 (0%)	5mo	$146,900	$128	85
1325 Viking Dr	0.17mi	3/1.0	1,181 (+2%)	5mo	$105,000	$89	84
1419 Viking Dr	0.06mi	3/1.0	1,073 (-7%)	9mo	$190,000	$177	78
3614 Lilac Rd	0.17mi	3/1.5	1,201 (+4%)	9mo	$209,000	$174	75
3527 Riverside Dr	0.12mi	3/1.0	1,025 (-11%)	3mo	$199,000	$194	74
1318 W Darden Rd	0.30mi	3/1.5	1,008 (-12%)	2mo	$112,000	$111	62
1330 Viking Dr	0.15mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,300 (+13%)	10mo	$199,000	$153	58
4019 Riverside Dr	0.29mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,250 (+8%)	12mo	$240,690	$193	55
52424 Scott St	0.75mi	3/1.0	1,060 (-8%)	5mo	$206,000	$194	48
4132 Greenglade Ct	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,040 (-10%)	8mo	$204,000	$196	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.88×
• Total profit: $-5,248
• Equity at exit: $23,842

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.94×
• Total profit: $41,893
• Equity at exit: $13,825

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 46628

• Rents YoY: 6.8%
• Active inventory: 424
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,601 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$134 /mo · $1,612/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $225

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,316

Max offer price $159,900

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2701 Appaloosa Ln South Bend, IN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	851	$1,479	$1.74	13d	15	0.80mi
2527 Riverside Dr South Bend, IN	3.0	1.5	1048	$1,595	$1.52	21d	1	1.05mi
924 Merrill Ct S Unit 924 South Bend, IN	2.0	1.5	1263	$1,795	$1.42	13d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-03-29
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-18
   price $159,900
3. 2026-02-18
   listed $169,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,612 · $134/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,612 · $134/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,214
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$1,612
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,537
• − Management: −$1,537
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable income: $120
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$29
• After-tax cash flow: $2,677/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: South Bend Community School Corporation
• NCES district ID: 1810290
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $41,935
• Composite: 14.21/100
• National rank: #9452
• State rank: #284 of 301 in IN

Livability — South Bend

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #365
• US rank: #13730

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: South Bend, IN
• County: Saint Joseph County · 189,048 people
• City population: 99,767
• Metro: South Bend-Mishawaka, IN-MI
• Population (ZIP): 27,685
• Household income: $61,759
• Rent vs Own: 31.6% rent · 68.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1024.0

Population outlook (St. Joseph County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 273,186 people
• By 2030: 273,594 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 271,641 · -0.6%
• By 2050: 269,187 · -1.5%
• By 2075: 263,136 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 245,659 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Black 30% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 12% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 7% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Joseph

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.0% · R 48.5% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.6pp toward R · 2008: 17.1pp · 2024: 1.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.5 2020: D+5.8 2016: D+0.2 2012: D+3.5 2008: D+17.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -130.47%
• Current HPI: 202.112
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.78%
• Metro: South Bend-Mishawaka, IN-MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

-5.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-29 Pending — IRMLS
• 2026-02-18 Price Changed $159,900 IRMLS
• 2026-02-18 Listed $169,900 IRMLS

Property tax history

-7.1%/yr

Latest (2023): $1,612 · -0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.