516 Salmon Rd · Hampden, PA 17050

$99,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,058 sqft · Land · 23 Days on market

Built 1964 ↓ 17% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Bring this raised Rancher back to life with a little TLC! Great view of the waterfront! Please ask list agent about possible renovations.

Key facts

• Adjacent to park
• Water frontage
• Pavilions

Tags

• WATER FRONTAGE
• ADJACENT TO PARK
• WALKING TRAILS
• PAVILIONS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath land listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $906 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $98k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Cumberland Valley SD (suburban): math 54% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #52 of 539 in PA (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 13% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 339 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,052 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (310 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cumberland County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($98k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $73k; 36% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $97,515 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 42.10%
• DSCR: 2.87
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.99% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.43×
• Total profit: $39,688
• Equity at exit: $14,761

10-year hold

• IRR: 40.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.64×
• Total profit: $100,902
• Equity at exit: $8,560

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17050

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 339
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,990 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$39 /mo · $471/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$418
• Net cashflow: $906

Break-even live

Break-even rent $843

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 49%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $962	-5% $934	+0% $906	+5% $878	+10% $850
Rent	-10% $749	-5% $828	+0% $906	+5% $985	+10% $1,063
Rate	-1.0pp $956	-0.5pp $931	base $906	+0.5pp $881	+1.0pp $854

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4341 Carlisle Pike Unit C2 Camp Hill, PA	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,250	$1.14	44d	1	1.23mi
3626 Chestnut St Camp Hill, PA	2.0	1.0	768	$1,650	$2.15	14d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,000 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,000 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,000 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,000 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,000 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,000 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $99,000 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,000 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,000 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,000 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $99,000 Active 9 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,000 Active 8 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,000 Active 7 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,000 Active 6 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,000 Active 5 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,000 Active 4 DOM
17. 2026-05-26
    listed $99,000 Active
18. 2021-05-13
    soldstatus $73,000
19. 2021-02-03
    soldstatus $60,000
20. 2021-01-27
    soldstatus $60,000 Closed 137-char remark

    Show marketing remark (137 chars)

    Bring this raised Rancher back to life with a little TLC! Great view of the waterfront! Please ask list agent about possible renovations.

21. 2021-01-15
    status Pending 137-char remark

    Show marketing remark (137 chars)

    Bring this raised Rancher back to life with a little TLC! Great view of the waterfront! Please ask list agent about possible renovations.

22. 2021-01-10
    price $76,500 137-char remark

    Show marketing remark (137 chars)

    Bring this raised Rancher back to life with a little TLC! Great view of the waterfront! Please ask list agent about possible renovations.

23. 2021-01-07
    price $89,000 137-char remark

    Show marketing remark (137 chars)

    Bring this raised Rancher back to life with a little TLC! Great view of the waterfront! Please ask list agent about possible renovations.

24. 2021-01-06
    listed $119,900 Active 137-char remark

    Show marketing remark (137 chars)

    Bring this raised Rancher back to life with a little TLC! Great view of the waterfront! Please ask list agent about possible renovations.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $471 · $39/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,018 · $85/mo
• Expected delta: +$547/yr (+$46/mo · 116.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥100°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,883
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$471
• − Insurance: −$1,292
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,911
• − Management: −$1,911
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $9,873
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,369
• After-tax cash flow: $8,505/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cumberland Valley SD
• NCES district ID: 4207110
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 71% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $78,135
• Composite: 55.77/100
• National rank: #1218
• State rank: #52 of 539 in PA

Livability — Hampden

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Cumberland County · 257,673 people
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• Population (ZIP): 43,571
• Household income: $113,720
• Rent vs Own: 21.4% rent · 78.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 535.0

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 267,950 people
• By 2030: 278,105 · +3.8%
• By 2040: 296,552 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 312,937 · +16.8%
• By 2075: 349,233 · +30.3%
• By 2100: 361,875 · +35.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Asian 16% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Other Indo-European 6% Other Asian/Pacific 5% Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.4) · D 44.6% · R 54.1% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: -13.6pp · 2024: -9.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.4 2020: R+10.6 2016: R+18.6 2012: R+18.5 2008: R+13.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.84%
• Current HPI: 241.7363
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.99%
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-17.4% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $99,000 FSBO.com
• 2021-05-13 Sold (Public Records) $73,000 Public Records
• 2021-02-03 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 2021-01-27 Sold (MLS) $60,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-01-15 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-01-10 Price Changed $76,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-01-07 Price Changed $89,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-01-06 Listed $119,900 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

-4.0%/yr

Latest (2026): $471 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.