513 Duchess Pass · Niederwald, TX 78640

$195,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured public records · 125 Days on market

Built 2018 0.25 ac lot $135/sqft · at area comps Est $196k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.6/15.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 4-Bedroom Home on Spacious 0.25-Acre Lot in Kyle, TX Welcome to 513 Duchess Pass in the growing community of Kyle, Texas! This inviting 4-bedroom, 2-bath home sits on a generous 0.25-acre lot, offering the perfect blend of space, comfort, and convenience. Inside, you’ll find a functional layout with ample room for both relaxing and entertaining. The four bedrooms provide flexibility for a growing household, home office, or guest space, while the two full bathrooms add everyday convenience. The large lot offers plenty of outdoor potential — whether you envision a garden, play area, workshop, or simply room to enjoy Texas sunsets. Located just minutes from Kyle’s shopping and dining options, this home is conveniently close to Kyle Crossing and Plum Creek Golf Course. Enjoy outdoor recreation at Lake Kyle Park, or take a short drive north to Austin for work, entertainment, and nightlife. With easy access to I-35, commuting to San Marcos or Austin is simple and convenient. Whether you're a first-time buyer, investor, or looking for more space to spread out, this property offers affordability, flexibility, and a prime location in one of Central Texas’ fastest-growing areas. Schedule your showing today and come see the potential this home has to offer!

Key facts

• Outdoor recreation
• 0.25-acre lot
• Close to dining

Tags

• 0.25-ACRE LOT
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING
• CLOSE TO DINING
• CLOSE TO GOLF COURSE
• OUTDOOR RECREATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-19 ($-227/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $192k (1.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (1.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $172k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.5% in Niederwald — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,198 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Hays CISD (rural): math 35% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #390 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.3%/yr); 1801 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 125 days — a 12% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $171,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 125 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.42%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $195,642
• List price: $195,000
• Delta: -0.33%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
518 Duchess Pass	0.03mi	4/2.0	1,440 (0%)	21mo	$249,000	$173	81
837 Railyard Dr	0.22mi	4/2.0	1,440 (0%)	13mo	$215,000	$149	79
115 Fiat Ct	0.38mi	4/3.0	1,450 (+1%)	18mo	$210,000	$145	63
297 Duchess Pass	0.17mi	4/2.0	1,536 (+7%)	23mo	$199,900	$130	62
460 Stag Horn Pass	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,456 (+1%)	12mo	$199,990	$137	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-38,281
• Equity at exit: $29,075

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.03×
• Total profit: $-56,029
• Equity at exit: $16,860

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78640

• Home prices YoY: -33.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 1801
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,919 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$431 /mo · $5,168/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$403
• Net cashflow: $-19

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,942

Max offer price $191,661

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
215 Greenfield Rd Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,299	$1.18	4d	1	1.09mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $195,000 Active 125 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   price $195,000 Active 124 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $230,000 Active 124 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $230,000 Active 123 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $230,000 Active 122 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $230,000 Active 120 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $230,000 Active 116 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $230,000 Active 115 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $230,000 Active 114 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $230,000 Active 111 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $230,000 Active 110 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $230,000 Active 109 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $230,000 Active 108 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $230,000 Active 107 DOM
15. 2026-02-18
    listed $230,000 Active 1299-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1299 chars)

    Charming 4-Bedroom Home on Spacious 0.25-Acre Lot in Kyle, TX Welcome to 513 Duchess Pass in the growing community of Kyle, Texas! This inviting 4-bedroom, 2-bath home sits on a generous 0.25-acre lot, offering the perfect blend of space, comfort, and convenience. Inside, you’ll find a functional layout with ample room for both relaxing and entertaining. The four bedrooms provide flexibility for a growing household, home office, or guest space, while the two full bathrooms add everyday convenience. The large lot offers plenty of outdoor potential — whether you envision a garden, play area, workshop, or simply room to enjoy Texas sunsets. Located just minutes from Kyle’s shopping and dining options, this home is conveniently close to Kyle Crossing and Plum Creek Golf Course. Enjoy outdoor recreation at Lake Kyle Park, or take a short drive north to Austin for work, entertainment, and nightlife. With easy access to I-35, commuting to San Marcos or Austin is simple and convenient. Whether you're a first-time buyer, investor, or looking for more space to spread out, this property offers affordability, flexibility, and a prime location in one of Central Texas’ fastest-growing areas. Schedule your showing today and come see the potential this home has to offer!

16. 2026-02-13
    listed $230,000 Active 1299-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1299 chars)

    Charming 4-Bedroom Home on Spacious 0.25-Acre Lot in Kyle, TX Welcome to 513 Duchess Pass in the growing community of Kyle, Texas! This inviting 4-bedroom, 2-bath home sits on a generous 0.25-acre lot, offering the perfect blend of space, comfort, and convenience. Inside, you’ll find a functional layout with ample room for both relaxing and entertaining. The four bedrooms provide flexibility for a growing household, home office, or guest space, while the two full bathrooms add everyday convenience. The large lot offers plenty of outdoor potential — whether you envision a garden, play area, workshop, or simply room to enjoy Texas sunsets. Located just minutes from Kyle’s shopping and dining options, this home is conveniently close to Kyle Crossing and Plum Creek Golf Course. Enjoy outdoor recreation at Lake Kyle Park, or take a short drive north to Austin for work, entertainment, and nightlife. With easy access to I-35, commuting to San Marcos or Austin is simple and convenient. Whether you're a first-time buyer, investor, or looking for more space to spread out, this property offers affordability, flexibility, and a prime location in one of Central Texas’ fastest-growing areas. Schedule your showing today and come see the potential this home has to offer!

17. 2025-10-07
    soldstatus
18. 2024-07-30
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,168 · $431/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,168 · $431/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,023
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$5,168
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,842
• − Management: −$1,842
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$3,400
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$816
• After-tax cash flow: $589/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hays CISD
• NCES district ID: 4800010
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,570
• Composite: 34.78/100
• National rank: #5118
• State rank: #390 of 826 in TX

Livability — Niederwald

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1198
• US rank: #20995

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hays County · 280,138 people
• City population: 77,531
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 77,531
• Household income: $90,075
• Rent vs Own: 29.0% rent · 71.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 2552.0

Population outlook (Hays County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,948 people
• By 2030: 336,923 · +17.4%
• By 2040: 441,894 · +54.0%
• By 2050: 553,462 · +92.9%
• By 2075: 838,261 · +192.1%
• By 2100: 1,063,658 · +270.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 36% Two or more races 29% Black 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 47% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 35%

Political lean MEDSL · Hays

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.7) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.7pp toward D · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: 5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.7 2020: D+10.8 2016: R+0.9 2012: R+10.4 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.64%
• Current HPI: 181.7969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.34%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-18 Listed $230,000 CTXMLS
• 2026-02-13 Listed $230,000 Unlock MLS
• 2025-10-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-07-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+32.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,168 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.