15949 Blass Valley Dr · Grangerland, TX 77302

$254,587

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,777 sqft · SingleFamily · 69 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 6,126 sqft lot $143/sqft · 12% below area Est $290k · 12% under $80/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.1/30.0
• ARV discount +13.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.4/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Contact Sales for Details

Key facts

• Spacious great room
• Granite countertops
• Open kitchen

Tags

• OPEN KITCHEN
• SPACIOUS GREAT ROOM
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $255k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $319 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $255k).
• Recommended offer: $239k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 5.1% in Grangerland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 1111 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($239k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $29k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $239,311 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.37%
• DSCR: 1.24
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $290,209
• List price: $254,587
• Delta: -12.27%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15980 Blass Valley Dr	0.10mi	4/2.0	1,777 (0%)	2mo	$274,790	$155	94
15985 Blass Valley Dr	0.03mi	4/2.5	1,850 (+4%)	1mo	$287,320	$155	88
15018 English Rose Rd	0.03mi	4/2.5	1,850 (+4%)	2mo	$276,730	$150	88
15385 Dapple Bluff Ln	0.14mi	4/2.0	1,937 (+9%)	1mo	$294,910	$152	77
14985 Rustic Moon Rd	0.34mi	4/2.0	1,689 (-5%)	1mo	$264,050	$156	75
15019 Rustic Moon Rd	0.32mi	4/2.0	1,924 (+8%)	1mo	$314,860	$164	71
15969 Blass Valley Dr	0.03mi	4/3.0	2,036 (+15%)	0mo	$279,540	$137	70
15187 Wild Gully Way	0.05mi	4/3.0	2,028 (+14%)	2mo	$355,880	$175	69
14973 Rustic Moon Rd	0.36mi	4/2.0	1,924 (+8%)	2mo	$289,648	$151	68
15965 Blass Valley Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,512 (-15%)	2mo	$273,480	$181	66
16280 Sun View Ln	0.38mi	4/2.0	1,550 (-13%)	2mo	$200,000	$129	59
15632 Boulder Lake Ln	0.49mi	4/3.0	2,028 (+14%)	2mo	$338,180	$167	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-20,028
• Equity at exit: $37,960

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $12,492
• Equity at exit: $22,012

Cash invested: $71,284 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77302

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 1111
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,732 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,335
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$318 /mo · $3,819/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$80
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$574
• Net cashflow: $319

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,328

Max offer price $254,587

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,647
• Closing costs: $7,638
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15447 Dapple Bluff Ln Conroe, TX	4.0	2.5	2265	$2,900	$1.28	44d	1	0.09mi
16393 Many Trees Ln Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1540	$1,795	$1.17	44d	1	0.49mi
16350 Many Trees Ln Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1550	$1,500	$0.97	24d	1	0.53mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $80 · $960/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $254,587 Active 69 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $254,587 Active 68 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $254,587 Active 67 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $254,587 Active 66 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $254,587 Active 64 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   price $254,587 Active 60 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $259,587 Active 60 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $259,587 Active 59 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $259,587 Active 58 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $259,587 Active 55 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $259,587 Active 54 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $259,587 Active 53 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $259,587 Active 52 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $259,587 Active 51 DOM
15. 2026-05-08
    price $269,587 25-char remark

    Show marketing remark (25 chars)

    Contact Sales for Details

16. 2026-05-07
    price $259,587 25-char remark

    Show marketing remark (25 chars)

    Contact Sales for Details

17. 2026-05-06
    price $269,587 428-char remark

    Show marketing remark (25 chars)

    Contact Sales for Details

18. 2026-05-06
    listed $283,577 Active 25-char remark

    Show marketing remark (25 chars)

    Contact Sales for Details

19. 2026-04-29
    price $274,464 428-char remark

    Show marketing remark (428 chars)

    READY NOW. The Afton floor plan by Centex is ideal for families, featuring a thoughtfully designed layout with an open kitchen that flows seamlessly into the spacious great room. All four bedrooms are conveniently located, offering both comfort and functionality. This home showcases beautiful upgrades, including granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout the main living areas.

20. 2026-04-10
    listed $292,367 Active 428-char remark

    Show marketing remark (428 chars)

    READY NOW. The Afton floor plan by Centex is ideal for families, featuring a thoughtfully designed layout with an open kitchen that flows seamlessly into the spacious great room. All four bedrooms are conveniently located, offering both comfort and functionality. This home showcases beautiful upgrades, including granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and luxury vinyl plank flooring throughout the main living areas.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,784
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,261
• − Property taxes: −$3,819
• − Insurance: −$1,273
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,623
• − Management: −$2,623
• − HOA: −$960
• − Depreciation: −$7,406
• Taxable loss: −$180
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$43
• After-tax cash flow: $3,870/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in excellent condition with a good curb appeal and a well-maintained exterior. It is ready to move in and can be enhanced with some exterior painting and landscaping improvements to further increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Interior touch-ups — Enhances the home's appearance and can increase both resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Interior touch-ups — Enhances the home's appearance and can increase both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Grangerland

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,546
• Household income: $84,673
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 205.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -187.56%
• Current HPI: 262.1879
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $269,587 Zillow
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $259,587 Zillow
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $269,587 HARMLS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $283,577 Zillow
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $274,464 HARMLS
• 2026-04-10 Listed $292,367 HARMLS