124 Darby Dr · Fredericksburg, TX 78624

$310,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,474 sqft · SingleFamily · 404 Days on market

Built 2024 4,791 sqft lot $211/sqft · 35% below area Est $479k · 35% under $29/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Newlin - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home. Estimated COE July 2025. Prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• En-suite bathroom

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• TWO SECONDARY BEDROOMS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $311k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-331 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $263k (15.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $234k (24.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $234k (24.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 1.7% in Fredericksburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#182 in TX, #4,711 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, health & safety B+, cost of living B; Watch: employment C-, amenities D, commute F.
• Fredericksburg ISD (town): math 44% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #241 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Fredericksburg El (math 40% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,313 of 4,322 statewide, top 31%, 744 students, 67% FRL); Fredericksburg Middle (math 51% / reading 46%, grade C-, #392 of 1,662 statewide, top 24%, 684 students, 58% FRL); Fredericksburg H S (math 33% / reading 57%, grade D-, #643 of 1,632 statewide, top 40%, 1,003 students, 48% FRL).
• Market conditions: 978 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 52 units permitted in Gillespie County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Gillespie County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 404 days — a 12% lower offer ($274k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $233,791 (24.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 404 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.57%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $478,714
• List price: $310,999
• Delta: -35.03%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
111 Darby Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,474 (0%)	13mo	$307,999	$209	89
107 Darby Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,474 (0%)	13mo	$287,999	$195	83
101 Darby Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,474 (0%)	14mo	$310,999	$211	82
119 W Creek St	0.21mi	3/4.0	1,468 (-0%)	10mo	$675,000	$460	73
100 Ellendale Pl	0.00mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,667 (+13%)	6mo	$314,999	$189	68
122 Lilli's Ln	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,650 (+12%)	5mo	$349,950	$212	63
611 N Adams St	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,600 (+8%)	3mo	$544,900	$341	60
413 1/2 S Milam St	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,484 (+1%)	22mo	$379,900	$256	58
210 E Travis St	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,320 (-10%)	7mo	$779,000	$590	57
406 E Centre St	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,446 (-2%)	13mo	$639,000	$442	53
807 N Orange St	0.57mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,400 (-5%)	11mo	$849,900	$607	51
208 N Acorn St	0.69mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,550 (+5%)	7mo	$899,000	$580	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-71,442
• Equity at exit: $46,371

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.02×
• Total profit: $-89,165
• Equity at exit: $26,890

Cash invested: $87,080 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78624

• Active inventory: 978
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,338 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,631
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$389 /mo · $4,665/yr
• Insurance: −$130
• HOA: −$29
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$491
• Net cashflow: $-331

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,757

Max offer price $263,060

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-116	-5% $-224	+0% $-331	+5% $-439	+10% $-546
Rent	-10% $-516	-5% $-424	+0% $-331	+5% $-239	+10% $-147
Rate	-1.0pp $-175	-0.5pp $-252	base $-331	+0.5pp $-412	+1.0pp $-494

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,750
• Closing costs: $9,330
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
202 E Ufer St Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	993	$2,355	$2.37	0d	11	0.38mi
422 S Orange St Fredericksburg, TX	2.0	1.0	1732	$2,250	$1.30	22d	1	0.44mi
509 W Creek St Fredericksburg, TX	2.0	2.0	1576	$1,750	$1.11	25d	1	0.52mi
104 N Elk St Fredericksburg, TX	2.0	2.0	1620	$2,000	$1.23	13d	1	0.63mi
1004 E Hill St Unit B Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1431	$1,895	$1.32	25d	1	0.86mi
1004 W Hill St Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1432	$1,895	$1.32	25d	1	0.87mi
619 W Live Oak St Fredericksburg, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	879	$1,899	$2.16	0d	11	0.98mi
1401 N Orange St Fredericksburg, TX	2.0	2.0	1222	$1,700	$1.39	45d	1	1.06mi
405 Summit Cir Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1532	$2,100	$1.37	45d	1	1.07mi
501 S Olive St Fredericksburg, TX	2.0	2.5	1400	$2,500	$1.79	45d	1	1.17mi
510 S Olive St Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1335	$2,950	$2.21	45d	1	1.19mi
108 E Lower Crabapple Rd Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	939	$2,102	$2.24	0d	11	1.25mi
605 Paintbrush Hollow St Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1611	$2,495	$1.55	25d	1	1.26mi
915 E Highway St Unit NA Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1407	$1,950	$1.39	6d	1	1.34mi
1006 E Highway St Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1588	$2,250	$1.42	45d	1	1.39mi
712 Englemann Oak Dr Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1510	$2,650	$1.75	19d	1	1.39mi
713 Englemann Oak Dr Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1496	$2,850	$1.91	45d	1	1.42mi
1705 Cherrywood Dr Fredericksburg, TX	3.0	2.0	1786	$2,500	$1.40	13d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $29 · $348/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $310,999 Active 404 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $310,999 Active 401 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $310,999 Active 400 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $310,999 Active 399 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $310,999 Active 398 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $310,999 Active 396 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $310,999 Active 392 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $310,999 Active 391 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $310,999 Active 390 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $310,999 Active 387 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $310,999 Active 386 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $310,999 Active 385 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $310,999 Active 384 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $310,999 Active 383 DOM
15. 2025-05-13
    listed $310,999 New 463-char remark

    Show marketing remark (463 chars)

    The Newlin - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home. Estimated COE July 2025. Prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,055
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,421
• − Property taxes: −$4,665
• − Insurance: −$1,555
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,244
• − Management: −$2,244
• − HOA: −$348
• − Depreciation: −$9,047
• Taxable loss: −$9,470
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,273
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,703/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fredericksburg ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819840
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $54,655
• Composite: 39.9/100
• National rank: #3857
• State rank: #241 of 826 in TX

Livability — Fredericksburg

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #182
• US rank: #4711

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living B Crime A+ Employment C- Housing B Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fredericksburg, TX
• County: Gillespie County · 23,741 people
• City population: 23,741
• Metro: Fredericksburg, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,741
• Household income: $75,237
• Rent vs Own: 26.3% rent · 73.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 470.0

Population outlook (Gillespie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,213 people
• By 2030: 29,243 · +3.7%
• By 2040: 31,133 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 32,854 · +16.4%
• By 2075: 37,597 · +33.3%
• By 2100: 39,369 · +39.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 13% German/W. Germanic 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Gillespie

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.9) · D 19.2% · R 80.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.3pp toward R · 2008: -56.6pp · 2024: -60.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.9 2020: R+58.9 2016: R+62.2 2012: R+65.8 2008: R+56.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -209.14%
• Current HPI: 218.7201
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Fredericksburg, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-05-13 Listed $310,999 LERA