2521 Ash Crk · Mesquite, TX 75181

$264,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1997 7,144 sqft lot Est $289k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.4/30.0
• ARV discount +11.2/15.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

LIKE NEW! Total remodel, appliances included, shows like a model home. Everything updated except FP, paint, carpet, windows, doors, blinds, cabinets, c-tops, tile, baths, insulation, sheet rock, plumbing, electrical, roof, light fixtures, hardware, gutters, AC system, everything inside, too much to mention. All in a beautiful well kept neighborhood, close to church, shopping, parks, and Hwy.

Key facts

• Mesquite isd
• Cozy fireplace
• Large walk-in closet

Tags

• COZY FIREPLACE
• FORMICA COUNTERTOPS
• LARGE WALK-IN CLOSET
• PRIVATE FULLY FENCED YARD
• MESQUITE ISD
• PIRRUNG ELEMENTARY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: No restrictions
• Financial info: Listing terms include Cash, Conventional, FHA, VA
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; 2 covered parking spaces; Asphalt parking surface
• Utilities: Cable available; Electricity available; Underground utilities; Not in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Residential property; No accessibility adaptations
• Construction: Built in 1997; Brick and wood construction; Slab foundation; Composition shingle roof
• Exterior features: Back yard fencing; Covered patio/porch; Level lot; City street frontage; Asphalt road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Refrigerator; Ice maker; Gas water heater
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on level 1 with dual sinks and walk-in closet; Two additional bedrooms on level 1
• Flooring: Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heat (electric); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: 6 total rooms; 1 living area; 1 dining area; Other interior features; Living room fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $6 ($74/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $256k (3.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $256k (3.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.4% in Mesquite — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#358 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: crime F, commute F.
• Mesquite ISD (suburban): math 35% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #536 of 826 in TX (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Pirrung El (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #2,791 of 4,322 statewide, top 68%, 446 students, 79% FRL); Terry Middle (math 34% / reading 32%, grade F, #930 of 1,662 statewide, top 57%, 1,049 students, 82% FRL); Horn H S (math 41% / reading 36%, grade F, #866 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 3,029 students, 74% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 63% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 598 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 12,577 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dallas County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $256,481 (3.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.32%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.10%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $288,792
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1609 Quapaw Trl	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,510 (-0%)	4mo	$314,990	$209	76
1904 Osage Trl	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,498 (-1%)	5mo	$318,480	$213	70
2521 Breakaway Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,571 (+4%)	5mo	$324,990	$207	66
2516 Mcnally Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,649 (+9%)	5mo	$314,990	$191	58
1905 Bent Brook Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,664 (+10%)	1mo	$275,000	$165	56
2321 Baretta Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,406 (-7%)	5mo	$243,500	$173	53
2516 Russell Way	0.48mi	3/2.5	1,699 (+12%)	3mo	$314,990	$185	52
2017 Paradise Valley Dr	0.52mi	3/2.5	1,699 (+12%)	1mo	$339,834	$200	52
2528 Breakaway Dr	0.47mi	3/2.5	1,699 (+12%)	5mo	$339,990	$200	51
1844 Osage Trl	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,695 (+12%)	5mo	$319,990	$189	51
1619 Brenwood Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,682 (+11%)	5mo	$275,000	$163	46
3320 Stream Side Ct	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,713 (+13%)	4mo	$305,000	$178	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.07% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-49,724
• Equity at exit: $39,497

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-70,593
• Equity at exit: $22,904

Cash invested: $74,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75181

• Home prices YoY: -9.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 598
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,565 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,389
• Tax from tax record: −$521 /mo · $6,246/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$539
• Net cashflow: $6

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,557

Max offer price $264,900

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $156	-5% $81	+0% $6	+5% $-69	+10% $-144
Rent	-10% $-196	-5% $-95	+0% $6	+5% $107	+10% $209
Rate	-1.0pp $140	-0.5pp $74	base $6	+0.5pp $-62	+1.0pp $-132

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,225
• Closing costs: $7,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2621 Ash Crk Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1843	$2,299	$1.25	45d	1	0.06mi
1217 Buckeye Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1735	$1,995	$1.15	24d	1	0.35mi
1217 Buckeye Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1735	$1,995	$1.15	45d	1	0.35mi
2812 Clearmeadow Dr Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	1837	$2,800	$1.52	0d	1	0.36mi
928 Winchester Ln Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1426	$2,650	$1.86	0d	1	0.52mi
1729 Hazer Ln Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1498	$2,400	$1.60	22d	1	0.53mi
908 Winchester Ln Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1386	$2,049	$1.48	3d	1	0.55mi
1809 Osage Trl Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	2022	$2,599	$1.29	19d	1	0.56mi
2345 Browning Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1384	$3,500	$2.53	0d	1	0.57mi
1233 Clear Creek Dr Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.5	1749	$2,289	$1.31	9d	1	0.58mi
1229 Clear Creek Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.5	1993	$2,900	$1.46	0d	1	0.58mi
1229 Clear Creek Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.5	1993	$3,075	$1.54	14d	1	0.58mi
2208 Browning Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1406	$1,955	$1.39	45d	1	0.58mi
2433 Baretta Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1406	$2,091	$1.49	24d	1	0.60mi
1013 Clear Creek Dr Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	1887	$2,399	$1.27	5d	1	0.67mi
1521 Cool Springs Dr Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	1924	$2,295	$1.19	26d	1	0.73mi
1615 Ariel Dr Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	2002	$3,200	$1.60	0d	1	0.79mi
2302 Highbank Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1783	$2,145	$1.20	45d	1	0.80mi
1411 Springwood Dr Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,081	$1.11	45d	1	0.82mi
2314 Stillwater Dr Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	1995	$2,600	$1.30	26d	1	0.85mi
2314 Stillwater Dr Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	1995	$2,600	$1.30	0d	1	0.85mi
1417 Stillmeadow Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	1.5	1251	$2,800	$2.24	0d	1	0.86mi
2321 Bent Brook Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	2029	$2,460	$1.21	9d	1	0.89mi
1411 Sandalwood Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1491	$2,280	$1.53	0d	1	0.92mi
2338 Stillwater Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1765	$2,300	$1.30	22d	1	0.92mi
924 Hillrise Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1937	$2,100	$1.08	0d	1	1.05mi
2600 Waterloo Ln Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1460	$1,900	$1.30	45d	1	1.06mi
2524 Park Valley Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1360	$2,150	$1.58	0d	1	1.07mi
505 Picketts Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1406	$1,950	$1.39	45d	1	1.19mi
1601 Hillwood Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1284	$2,095	$1.63	9d	1	1.20mi
2632 Bent Brook Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1622	$1,995	$1.23	7d	1	1.21mi
2705 Hidden Springs Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1656	$2,280	$1.38	4d	1	1.22mi
2213 Creek Royal Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1505	$1,850	$1.23	24d	1	1.24mi
2213 Creek Royal Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1505	$1,850	$1.23	45d	1	1.24mi
1601 Chapman Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1306	$1,845	$1.41	14d	1	1.24mi
2008 Birch Bnd Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1580	$2,799	$1.77	9d	1	1.29mi
612 Coolwood Ln Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1433	$1,746	$1.22	45d	1	1.30mi
608 Coolwood Ln Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1272	$1,900	$1.49	45d	1	1.31mi
2124 Amber Spgs Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.5	1950	$3,049	$1.56	14d	1	1.35mi
2004 Poppy Way Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1572	$2,700	$1.72	45d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-05-26
   listed $264,900 Active
2. 2018-12-17
   soldstatus
3. 2012-06-17
   historical
4. 2012-03-31
   status Active
5. 2012-03-31
   historical
6. 2011-09-10
   listed $129,000 Active
7. 2008-07-07
   soldstatus
8. 2008-06-27
   soldstatus 394-char remark

   Show marketing remark (394 chars)

   LIKE NEW! Total remodel, appliances included, shows like a model home. Everything updated except FP, paint, carpet, windows, doors, blinds, cabinets, c-tops, tile, baths, insulation, sheet rock, plumbing, electrical, roof, light fixtures, hardware, gutters, AC system, everything inside, too much to mention. All in a beautiful well kept neighborhood, close to church, shopping, parks, and Hwy.

9. 2008-06-12
   historical 394-char remark

   Show marketing remark (394 chars)

   LIKE NEW! Total remodel, appliances included, shows like a model home. Everything updated except FP, paint, carpet, windows, doors, blinds, cabinets, c-tops, tile, baths, insulation, sheet rock, plumbing, electrical, roof, light fixtures, hardware, gutters, AC system, everything inside, too much to mention. All in a beautiful well kept neighborhood, close to church, shopping, parks, and Hwy.

10. 2008-05-21
    listed $129,900 394-char remark

    Show marketing remark (394 chars)

    LIKE NEW! Total remodel, appliances included, shows like a model home. Everything updated except FP, paint, carpet, windows, doors, blinds, cabinets, c-tops, tile, baths, insulation, sheet rock, plumbing, electrical, roof, light fixtures, hardware, gutters, AC system, everything inside, too much to mention. All in a beautiful well kept neighborhood, close to church, shopping, parks, and Hwy.

11. 1998-03-06
    soldstatus
12. 1998-03-06
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,246 · $521/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,246 · $521/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,778
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,839
• − Property taxes: −$6,246
• − Insurance: −$1,324
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,462
• − Management: −$2,462
• − Depreciation: −$7,706
• Taxable loss: −$4,262
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,023
• After-tax cash flow: $1,097/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mesquite ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830390
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $49,372
• Composite: 29.06/100
• National rank: #6606
• State rank: #536 of 826 in TX

Livability — Mesquite

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #358
• US rank: #7743

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mesquite, TX
• County: Dallas County · 2,612,404 people
• City population: 150,788
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,788
• Household income: $111,052
• Rent vs Own: 16.2% rent · 83.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 857.0

Population outlook (Dallas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,979,839 people
• By 2030: 3,191,823 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 3,619,611 · +21.5%
• By 2050: 4,026,915 · +35.1%
• By 2075: 4,957,073 · +66.4%
• By 2100: 5,508,725 · +84.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 39% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 21% White 16% Asian 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 27% Tagalog/Filipino 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dallas

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+22.2) · D 60.2% · R 38.0% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: 22.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+22.2 2020: D+31.6 2016: D+26.2 2012: D+15.4 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -26.63%
• Current HPI: 257.0959
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.07%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+103.9% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $264,900 NTREIS
• 2018-12-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2012-06-17 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2012-03-31 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2012-03-31 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2011-09-10 Listed $129,000 NTREIS
• 2008-07-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2008-06-27 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2008-06-12 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2008-05-21 Listed $129,900 NTREIS
• 1998-03-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1998-03-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,246 · +18.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.