106 County Road 138 · Buchanan Dam, TX 78611

$160,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · SingleFamily public records

Built 1970 0.56 ac lot Est $198k · 19% under $120/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.0/30.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice cottage in Lake Buchanan subdivision. Well maintained with recent plumbing and electrical, serviced air conditioning unit and roof only 2 years old. Large storage building with water and electrical ( would make a grand "man cave") plus separate dry storage area with lean-to for storage of your yard equipment. Pretty lot with lots of shade. Restrictions: Yes

Key facts

• 56 acres
• Boatramp
• 0.56 acre lot

Tags

• 56 ACRES
• BONZANZA BEACH POA PARK
• BOATRAMP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-7 ($-90/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $159k (0.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $157k (2.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $157k (2.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 0.6% in Buchanan Dam — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#813 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Burnet CISD (rural): math 36% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #465 of 826 in TX (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 554 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 891 units permitted in Burnet County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Burnet County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask is 48% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 46% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 8→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $156,610 (2.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.20%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $197,760
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
109 County Road 138	0.03mi	2/1.0 (-1)	964 (+0%)	2mo	$199,000	$206	91

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-26,295
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-23,069
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78611

• Home prices YoY: -24.7%
• Active inventory: 554
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,566 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$219 /mo · $2,628/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$120
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$329
• Net cashflow: $-7

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,576

Max offer price $158,676

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $83	-5% $38	+0% $-7	+5% $-53	+10% $-98
Rent	-10% $-131	-5% $-69	+0% $-7	+5% $54	+10% $116
Rate	-1.0pp $73	-0.5pp $33	base $-7	+0.5pp $-49	+1.0pp $-91

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $120 · $1,440/yr
• Likely covers: waterelectric

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-21
   remarks 504-char remark
2. 2026-06-19
   remarks 87-char remark
3. 2026-06-19
   listed $160,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,628 · $219/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,928 · $244/mo
• Expected delta: +$300/yr (+$25/mo · 11.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 8 d/yr ≥107°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 46% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,793
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$2,628
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,503
• − Management: −$1,503
• − HOA: −$1,440
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable loss: −$2,699
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$648
• After-tax cash flow: $558/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Burnet CISD
• NCES district ID: 4812220
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $50,890
• Composite: 32.09/100
• National rank: #5811
• State rank: #465 of 826 in TX

Livability — Buchanan Dam

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #813
• US rank: #14766

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Burnet County · 35,210 people
• City population: 1,826
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 14,560
• Household income: $80,938
• Rent vs Own: 19.7% rent · 80.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 218.0

Population outlook (Burnet County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,492 people
• By 2030: 52,995 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 57,528 · +13.9%
• By 2050: 61,444 · +21.7%
• By 2075: 71,098 · +40.8%
• By 2100: 74,634 · +47.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 9% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 8% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Burnet

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.7) · D 21.7% · R 77.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: -44.1pp · 2024: -55.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.7 2020: R+53.1 2016: R+56.8 2012: R+54.6 2008: R+44.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.25%
• Current HPI: 253.5299
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2014-11-25 Listing Removed — CTXMLS
• 2014-11-25 Sold (MLS) — Unlock MLS
• 2014-09-03 Listed $108,000 CTXMLS
• 2014-07-22 Listed $108,000 Unlock MLS
• 2011-02-17 Delisted — Unlock MLS
• 2010-02-03 Listed — Unlock MLS

Property tax history

+9.4%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,628 · +40.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.