4911 Birchcrest Dr · Flint, MI 48504

$34,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,310 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 24 Days on market

Built 1955 0.30 ac lot Est $38k · 11% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.2/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice 3 Bedroom with 2 bathrooms on full basement. Great first time home or investment.

Key facts

• 0.3 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1955

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Annual tax information available
• HOA & community: Homeowners association present

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 0.3 acres (5,663 sq ft); Subdivision: MANLEY VILLAGE 1; Located south of Pierson and east of Jennings

Interior

• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 3
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); No central cooling
• Interior features: Finished above-grade living area of 1,310; One-level living; Basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $34k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $473 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($943 rent vs $34k).
• Recommended offer: $33k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 23.0% vs local median 11.5% in Flint — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#196 in MI, #4,946 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, employment F.
• Flint School District (urban): math 7% / reading 13% proficiency, ranked #714 of 760 in MI (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 131 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 419 units permitted in Genesee County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $235 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Genesee County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($33k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.8% of price; built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $33,490 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.77% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 59.68%
• DSCR: 3.66
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $37,990
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4911 Birchcrest Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,310 (0%)	0mo	$30,000	$23	100
4319 Greenlawn Dr	0.14mi	3/1.0	1,310 (0%)	10mo	$38,500	$29	81
3145 Gracelawn Ave	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,300 (-1%)	0mo	$135,500	$104	70
1909 Basil Ln	0.29mi	3/1.0	1,200 (-8%)	8mo	$21,025	$18	62
3299 W Ridgeway Ave	0.72mi	3/1.5	1,289 (-2%)	3mo	$61,000	$47	59
4201 Winona St	0.43mi	3/1.0	1,212 (-8%)	7mo	$34,900	$29	58
2014 Barbara Dr	0.67mi	3/1.5	1,320 (+1%)	10mo	$54,900	$42	57
4008 Winona St	0.57mi	3/1.0	1,418 (+8%)	1mo	$79,900	$56	55
3330 Maywood Dr	0.31mi	3/1.0	1,120 (-14%)	5mo	$14,000	$13	53
3822 Leerda St	0.69mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,250 (-5%)	9mo	$30,000	$24	46
3819 Brownell Blvd	0.65mi	3/1.0	1,137 (-13%)	5mo	$69,900	$61	40
3713 Wisner St	0.69mi	3/1.0	1,449 (+11%)	8mo	$17,500	$12	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 58.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.59×
• Total profit: $24,682
• Equity at exit: $5,070

10-year hold

• IRR: 63.2%
• Equity multiple: 7.35×
• Total profit: $60,470
• Equity at exit: $2,940

Cash invested: $9,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48504

• Active inventory: 131
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $943 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$178
• Tax from tax record: −$79 /mo · $948/yr
• Insurance: −$14
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$198
• Net cashflow: $473

Break-even live

Break-even rent $344

Max offer price $34,000

Occupancy floor 45%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $493	-5% $483	+0% $473	+5% $464	+10% $454
Rent	-10% $399	-5% $436	+0% $473	+5% $511	+10% $548
Rate	-1.0pp $491	-0.5pp $482	base $473	+0.5pp $465	+1.0pp $456

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,500
• Closing costs: $1,020
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5905 Griggs Dr Flint, MI	3.0	1.0	940	$1,000	$1.06	14d	1	0.55mi
5413 DuPont St Flint, MI	4.0	1.5	1038	$900	$0.87	21d	1	0.89mi
5813 Edwards Ave Flint, MI	3.0	1.0	1500	$899	$0.60	14d	1	0.93mi
411 W Marengo Ave Flint, MI	3.0	1.0	1350	$1,072	$0.79	14d	1	1.11mi
711 W Dewey St Flint, MI	3.0	1.0	1011	$925	$0.91	21d	1	1.28mi
100 Rosewood Mnr Flint, MI	2.0	1.5	1159	$947	$0.82	14d	1	1.29mi
2462 Gena Ann Ln Unit GEN2462 Flint, MI	3.0	2.0	960	$895	$0.93	44d	1	1.29mi
3376 Preston Pl Unit PRE3376 Flint, MI	3.0	2.0	960	$895	$0.93	44d	1	1.30mi
6802 DuPont St Flint, MI	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,000	$0.83	21d	1	1.31mi
2419 Gena Ann Ln Unit GEN2419 Flint, MI	3.0	2.0	960	$895	$0.93	44d	1	1.38mi
2410 Gena Ann Ln Flint, MI	3.0	2.0	960	$895	$0.93	45d	1	1.39mi
2410 Gena Ann Ln Unit GEN2410 Flint, MI	3.0	2.0	960	$895	$0.93	44d	1	1.39mi
514 W Alma Ave Flint, MI	3.0	1.0	894	$925	$1.03	14d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-03
   status $34,000 Pending 24 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $34,000 Active 24 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $34,000 Active 23 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $34,000 Active 22 DOM
5. 2026-05-30
   days on market $34,000 Active 21 DOM
6. 2026-05-09
   listed $34,000 Active 86-char remark

   Show marketing remark (86 chars)

   Nice 3 Bedroom with 2 bathrooms on full basement. Great first time home or investment.

7. 2026-05-09
   listed $34,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (86 chars)

   Nice 3 Bedroom with 2 bathrooms on full basement. Great first time home or investment.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $948 · $79/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $948 · $79/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,316
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,905
• − Property taxes: −$948
• − Insurance: −$170
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$905
• − Management: −$905
• − Depreciation: −$989
• Taxable income: $5,493
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,318
• After-tax cash flow: $4,363/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Flint School District
• NCES district ID: 2614520
• Math proficiency: 7% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 13% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $25,954
• Composite: 10.97/100
• National rank: #14642
• State rank: #714 of 760 in MI

Livability — Flint

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #196
• US rank: #4946

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Flint, MI
• City population: 93,814
• Population (ZIP): 23,873

Population outlook (Genesee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 381,312 people
• By 2030: 362,731 · -4.9%
• By 2040: 321,550 · -15.7%
• By 2050: 279,212 · -26.8%
• By 2075: 193,336 · -49.3%
• By 2100: 128,118 · -66.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 66% White 24% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Genesee

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.4% · R 47.2% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.3pp toward R · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+4.2 2020: D+9.3 2016: D+9.5 2012: D+28.2 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -101.67%
• Current HPI: 94.3111
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Listed $34,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-09 Listed $34,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $948 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.