19835 Emerald Bend Way · Atascocita, TX 77346

$264,390

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,989 sqft · SingleFamily · 187 Days on market

Built 2025 Excellent condition $133/sqft · 18% below area Est $324k · 18% under $142/mo HOA · 6% of rent ↓ 22% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.0/30.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Brand new, energy-efficient home available by Jan 2026! Try a new recipe in the Ryker's impressive kitchen, complete with a useful island and corner pantry. White cabinets with white quartz countertops and white backsplash, light brown EVP flooring and multi-tone carpet. Nestled in this gated boutique community, Pinewood Trails offers a lock and leave experience to enjoy the future lakes, trails and parks. Just minutes away from Lake Houston, premier shopping, dining, and entertainment, you won’t have to travel far. Each energy-efficient home also comes standard with features that go beyond helping you save on utility bills—they allow your whole family to live better and breathe easier too.

Key facts

• Corner pantry
• Premier shopping
• Impressive kitchen

Tags

• ENERGY EFFICIENT HOME
• IMPRESSIVE KITCHEN
• CORNER PANTRY
• GATED BOUTIQUE COMMUNITY
• MINUTES AWAY FROM LAKE HOUSTON
• PREMIER SHOPPING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $264k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-160 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $241k (8.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $229k (13.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $229k (13.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 4.1% in Atascocita — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#346 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Humble ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #262 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 669 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 187 days — a 12% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $229,011 (13.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 187 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.57%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.59%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $323,865
• List price: $264,390
• Delta: -18.36%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19835 Emerald Bend Way	0.00mi	4/2.5	1,989 (0%)	1mo	$264,390	$133	99
19827 Emerald Bend Way	0.01mi	4/2.5	1,989 (0%)	2mo	$298,840	$150	98
19918 Emerald Bend Way	0.07mi	4/2.5	1,989 (0%)	0mo	$307,740	$155	96
7410 Crown Maples Dr	0.07mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,011 (+1%)	2mo	$377,650	$188	88
19834 Emerald Bend Way	0.03mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,107 (+6%)	1mo	$304,490	$145	83
20310 Umber Oak Ct	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,148 (+8%)	2mo	$324,900	$151	72
19839 Emerald Bend Way	0.01mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,727 (-13%)	2mo	$268,140	$155	71
19831 Emerald Bend Way	0.01mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,727 (-13%)	2mo	$284,140	$165	71
20507 Delta Wood Trl	0.29mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,164 (+9%)	0mo	$320,000	$148	65
20923 Lake Park Trl Trl	0.69mi	4/2.0	2,056 (+3%)	1mo	$285,000	$139	59
20215 Glen Burn Ct	0.50mi	4/2.5	2,209 (+11%)	0mo	$299,900	$136	58
6743 Pacific Crest Ct	0.46mi	4/2.0	2,277 (+14%)	1mo	$309,900	$136	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.95% appreciation · 0.09% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-35,942
• Equity at exit: $64,403

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-47,045
• Equity at exit: $68,125

Cash invested: $74,029 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77346

• Home prices YoY: -0.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 669
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,290 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,386
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$330 /mo · $3,966/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$142
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$481
• Net cashflow: $-160

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,493

Max offer price $241,245

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,098
• Closing costs: $7,932
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20618 Carmine Oak Ct Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	2087	$2,195	$1.05	43d	1	0.21mi
6519 Kings Glen Dr Humble, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1255	$2,813	$2.24	1d	16	0.32mi
6731 Auburn Oak Trl Humble, TX	3.0	2.5	2433	$2,345	$0.96	22d	1	0.42mi
20707 Redbud Trl Humble, TX	3.0	2.5	1965	$2,450	$1.25	22d	1	0.42mi
20823 Water Point Trl Humble, TX	4.0	3.5	2550	$2,525	$0.99	22d	1	0.53mi
6227 Spruce Bough Ct Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1432	$1,800	$1.26	43d	1	0.61mi
20906 Greenfield Trl Humble, TX	4.0	3.0	2603	$2,200	$0.85	43d	1	0.62mi
20914 Lake Park Trl Humble, TX	5.0	2.5	2462	$2,460	$1.00	5d	1	0.67mi
18835 Atasca Oaks Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1432	$1,829	$1.28	5d	1	0.76mi
20502 Spoonwood Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	2302	$1,975	$0.86	43d	1	1.07mi
7131 Maple Walk Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1808	$1,895	$1.05	5d	1	1.10mi
7403 Misty Morning Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1628	$1,900	$1.17	17d	1	1.11mi
19902 Burle Oak Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.5	1532	$1,699	$1.11	43d	1	1.27mi
18718 Walden Forest Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.0	2224	$2,600	$1.17	2d	1	1.33mi
5419 Deer Timbers Trl Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1313	$1,705	$1.30	22d	1	1.38mi
20143 Dawn Mist Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.5	1617	$1,659	$1.03	43d	1	1.42mi
18810 Woodbreeze Dr Humble, TX	4.0	2.5	2200	$2,279	$1.04	24d	1	1.46mi
7515 Echo Pines Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1655	$1,850	$1.12	43d	1	1.49mi
7002 Echo Pines Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1738	$1,869	$1.08	15d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $142 · $1,704/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Pending 711-char remark

   Show marketing remark (711 chars)

   Brand new, energy-efficient home available by Jan 2026! Try a new recipe in the Ryker's impressive kitchen, complete with a useful island and corner pantry. White cabinets with white quartz countertops and white backsplash, light brown EVP flooring and multi-tone carpet. Nestled in this gated boutique community, Pinewood Trails offers a lock and leave experience to enjoy the future lakes, trails and parks. Just minutes away from Lake Houston, premier shopping, dining, and entertainment, you won’t have to travel far. Each energy-efficient home also comes standard with features that go beyond helping you save on utility bills—they allow your whole family to live better and breathe easier too.

2. 2026-04-28
   price $264,390 711-char remark

   Show marketing remark (711 chars)

   Brand new, energy-efficient home available by Jan 2026! Try a new recipe in the Ryker's impressive kitchen, complete with a useful island and corner pantry. White cabinets with white quartz countertops and white backsplash, light brown EVP flooring and multi-tone carpet. Nestled in this gated boutique community, Pinewood Trails offers a lock and leave experience to enjoy the future lakes, trails and parks. Just minutes away from Lake Houston, premier shopping, dining, and entertainment, you won’t have to travel far. Each energy-efficient home also comes standard with features that go beyond helping you save on utility bills—they allow your whole family to live better and breathe easier too.

3. 2026-04-20
   price $289,390 711-char remark

   Show marketing remark (711 chars)

   Brand new, energy-efficient home available by Jan 2026! Try a new recipe in the Ryker's impressive kitchen, complete with a useful island and corner pantry. White cabinets with white quartz countertops and white backsplash, light brown EVP flooring and multi-tone carpet. Nestled in this gated boutique community, Pinewood Trails offers a lock and leave experience to enjoy the future lakes, trails and parks. Just minutes away from Lake Houston, premier shopping, dining, and entertainment, you won’t have to travel far. Each energy-efficient home also comes standard with features that go beyond helping you save on utility bills—they allow your whole family to live better and breathe easier too.

4. 2026-03-18
   price $304,390 711-char remark

   Show marketing remark (711 chars)

   Brand new, energy-efficient home available by Jan 2026! Try a new recipe in the Ryker's impressive kitchen, complete with a useful island and corner pantry. White cabinets with white quartz countertops and white backsplash, light brown EVP flooring and multi-tone carpet. Nestled in this gated boutique community, Pinewood Trails offers a lock and leave experience to enjoy the future lakes, trails and parks. Just minutes away from Lake Houston, premier shopping, dining, and entertainment, you won’t have to travel far. Each energy-efficient home also comes standard with features that go beyond helping you save on utility bills—they allow your whole family to live better and breathe easier too.

5. 2026-03-10
   price $309,390 711-char remark

   Show marketing remark (711 chars)

   Brand new, energy-efficient home available by Jan 2026! Try a new recipe in the Ryker's impressive kitchen, complete with a useful island and corner pantry. White cabinets with white quartz countertops and white backsplash, light brown EVP flooring and multi-tone carpet. Nestled in this gated boutique community, Pinewood Trails offers a lock and leave experience to enjoy the future lakes, trails and parks. Just minutes away from Lake Houston, premier shopping, dining, and entertainment, you won’t have to travel far. Each energy-efficient home also comes standard with features that go beyond helping you save on utility bills—they allow your whole family to live better and breathe easier too.

6. 2026-03-02
   price $314,390 711-char remark

   Show marketing remark (711 chars)

   Brand new, energy-efficient home available by Jan 2026! Try a new recipe in the Ryker's impressive kitchen, complete with a useful island and corner pantry. White cabinets with white quartz countertops and white backsplash, light brown EVP flooring and multi-tone carpet. Nestled in this gated boutique community, Pinewood Trails offers a lock and leave experience to enjoy the future lakes, trails and parks. Just minutes away from Lake Houston, premier shopping, dining, and entertainment, you won’t have to travel far. Each energy-efficient home also comes standard with features that go beyond helping you save on utility bills—they allow your whole family to live better and breathe easier too.

7. 2026-02-12
   price $313,390 711-char remark

   Show marketing remark (711 chars)

   Brand new, energy-efficient home available by Jan 2026! Try a new recipe in the Ryker's impressive kitchen, complete with a useful island and corner pantry. White cabinets with white quartz countertops and white backsplash, light brown EVP flooring and multi-tone carpet. Nestled in this gated boutique community, Pinewood Trails offers a lock and leave experience to enjoy the future lakes, trails and parks. Just minutes away from Lake Houston, premier shopping, dining, and entertainment, you won’t have to travel far. Each energy-efficient home also comes standard with features that go beyond helping you save on utility bills—they allow your whole family to live better and breathe easier too.

8. 2026-01-01
   price $323,390 711-char remark

   Show marketing remark (711 chars)

   Brand new, energy-efficient home available by Jan 2026! Try a new recipe in the Ryker's impressive kitchen, complete with a useful island and corner pantry. White cabinets with white quartz countertops and white backsplash, light brown EVP flooring and multi-tone carpet. Nestled in this gated boutique community, Pinewood Trails offers a lock and leave experience to enjoy the future lakes, trails and parks. Just minutes away from Lake Houston, premier shopping, dining, and entertainment, you won’t have to travel far. Each energy-efficient home also comes standard with features that go beyond helping you save on utility bills—they allow your whole family to live better and breathe easier too.

9. 2025-12-04
   price $322,390 711-char remark

   Show marketing remark (711 chars)

   Brand new, energy-efficient home available by Jan 2026! Try a new recipe in the Ryker's impressive kitchen, complete with a useful island and corner pantry. White cabinets with white quartz countertops and white backsplash, light brown EVP flooring and multi-tone carpet. Nestled in this gated boutique community, Pinewood Trails offers a lock and leave experience to enjoy the future lakes, trails and parks. Just minutes away from Lake Houston, premier shopping, dining, and entertainment, you won’t have to travel far. Each energy-efficient home also comes standard with features that go beyond helping you save on utility bills—they allow your whole family to live better and breathe easier too.

10. 2025-10-29
    listed $337,390 Active 711-char remark

    Show marketing remark (711 chars)

    Brand new, energy-efficient home available by Jan 2026! Try a new recipe in the Ryker's impressive kitchen, complete with a useful island and corner pantry. White cabinets with white quartz countertops and white backsplash, light brown EVP flooring and multi-tone carpet. Nestled in this gated boutique community, Pinewood Trails offers a lock and leave experience to enjoy the future lakes, trails and parks. Just minutes away from Lake Houston, premier shopping, dining, and entertainment, you won’t have to travel far. Each energy-efficient home also comes standard with features that go beyond helping you save on utility bills—they allow your whole family to live better and breathe easier too.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 68% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,481
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,810
• − Property taxes: −$3,966
• − Insurance: −$1,322
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,199
• − Management: −$2,199
• − HOA: −$1,704
• − Depreciation: −$7,691
• Taxable loss: −$6,409
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,538
• After-tax cash flow: $-381/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This brand new, energy-efficient home is move-in ready and offers a lock and leave experience in a gated community. It's ideal for those looking to save on utility bills and enjoy the future lakes, trails, and parks nearby.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances the home's curb appeal and can attract more buyers or renters.
• Both Add smart home features — Improves convenience and can be a selling point for buyers and renters.
• Both Install energy-efficient windows — Reduces energy costs and enhances the home's curb appeal.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances the home's curb appeal and can attract more buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Improves convenience and can be a selling point for buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Install energy-efficient windows — Reduces energy costs and enhances the home's curb appeal. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Humble ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823910
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $83,946
• Composite: 38.55/100
• National rank: #4171
• State rank: #262 of 826 in TX

Livability — Atascocita

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #346
• US rank: #7586

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Atascocita, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 79,538
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 79,538
• Household income: $122,241
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1072.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Hispanic / Latino 28% Black 21% Two or more races 18% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Current HPI: 218.0478
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-21.6% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-28 Price Changed $264,390 HARMLS
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $289,390 HARMLS
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $304,390 HARMLS
• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $309,390 HARMLS
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $314,390 HARMLS
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $313,390 HARMLS
• 2026-01-01 Price Changed $323,390 HARMLS
• 2025-12-04 Price Changed $322,390 HARMLS
• 2025-10-29 Listed $337,390 HARMLS