8556 Bay River Rd · Navarre, FL 32566

$5,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,620 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 2016 1.01 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Cash flow +5.0/30.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Foreclosure Auction Ends June 23, 2026 at 12:00 PM EST. Explore this charming 4-bedroom, 2-bath residence set in a peaceful and well-located Navarre community. The list price is the opening bid for the online auction. Sold As-is. Explore more details and submit your bid through Federa Home App.

Key facts

• 1.01 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2016

🔨 Auction listing. The $5,000 list price is a nominal opening bid, not a real ask — every metric below is computed on the estimated value $492,560 (ARV from comps), not the list price.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $5k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $5k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#435 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A, schools A-; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Santa Rosa (suburban): math 63% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #8 of 73 in FL (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 768 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,983 units permitted in Santa Rosa County in 2024 (128 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($106k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $15k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Rosa County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 147.8% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $5,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.58% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.47%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.07%
• DSCR: 0.55
• GRM: 14.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $492,560
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8310 Verano St	0.73mi	4/3.0	2,455 (-6%)	2mo	$606,000	$247	50
8397 Verano St	0.57mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,557 (-2%)	13mo	$480,000	$188	49
8386 Segura St	0.46mi	4/3.0	2,506 (-4%)	21mo	$512,000	$204	49
8751 Cicilia Ct	0.56mi	4/2.0	2,318 (-12%)	10mo	$375,000	$162	46
8761 High School Blvd	0.60mi	4/2.0	2,436 (-7%)	22mo	$380,000	$156	42
8369 Segura St	0.50mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,236 (-15%)	3mo	$550,000	$246	41
8413 Tavira St	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,245 (-14%)	13mo	$390,000	$174	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.74% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -34.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.12×
• Total profit: $-154,257
• Equity at exit: $73,442

10-year hold

• IRR: -46.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.68×
• Total profit: $-232,133
• Equity at exit: $42,588

Cash invested: $137,917 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32566

• Home prices YoY: -26.2%
• Rents YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 768
• Price-to-rent: 0.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,843 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,583
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$616 /mo · $7,388/yr
• Insurance: −$205
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$597
• Net cashflow: $-1,158

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,309

Max offer price $325,022

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-817	-5% $-988	+0% $-1,158	+5% $-1,328	+10% $-1,498
Rent	-10% $-1,382	-5% $-1,270	+0% $-1,158	+5% $-1,046	+10% $-933
Rate	-1.0pp $-910	-0.5pp $-1,033	base $-1,158	+0.5pp $-1,285	+1.0pp $-1,415

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $123,140
• Closing costs: $14,777
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8934 E River Dr Navarre, FL	4.0	2.0	1989	$2,500	$1.26	24d	1	0.93mi
8657 El Paseo St Navarre, FL	3.0	2.0	1908	$2,210	$1.16	21d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $5,000 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $5,000 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   remarks 295-char remark

   Show marketing remark (295 chars)

   Foreclosure Auction Ends June 23, 2026 at 12:00 PM EST. Explore this charming 4-bedroom, 2-bath residence set in a peaceful and well-located Navarre community. The list price is the opening bid for the online auction. Sold As-is. Explore more details and submit your bid through Federa Home App.

4. 2026-06-15
   listed $5,000 Active 1 DOM

   Show marketing remark (295 chars)

   Foreclosure Auction Ends June 23, 2026 at 12:00 PM EST. Explore this charming 4-bedroom, 2-bath residence set in a peaceful and well-located Navarre community. The list price is the opening bid for the online auction. Sold As-is. Explore more details and submit your bid through Federa Home App.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $198 · $16/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $198 · $16/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥104°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,119
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,591
• − Property taxes: −$7,388
• − Insurance: −$2,463
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,730
• − Management: −$2,730
• − Depreciation: −$14,329
• Taxable loss: −$23,111
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,547
• After-tax cash flow: $-8,347/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa
• NCES district ID: 1201650
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,161
• Composite: 53.12/100
• National rank: #1511
• State rank: #8 of 73 in FL

Livability — Navarre

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #435
• US rank: #7790

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A- Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Navarre, FL
• County: Santa Rosa County · 194,764 people
• City population: 43,883
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 43,883
• Household income: $105,551
• Rent vs Own: 17.5% rent · 82.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 608.0

Population outlook (Santa Rosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 195,978 people
• By 2030: 209,782 · +7.0%
• By 2040: 235,293 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 256,408 · +30.8%
• By 2075: 298,074 · +52.1%
• By 2100: 303,216 · +54.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 9% Black 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 3% Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Rosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.0) · D 24.1% · R 75.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: -47.9pp · 2024: -51.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.0 2020: R+46.5 2016: R+53.5 2012: R+52.6 2008: R+47.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.87%
• Current HPI: 298.6821
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.74%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-88.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $5,000 HAOR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-04-26 Price Changed $265,000 ECAR
• 2026-04-20 Listed $285,000 ECAR
• 2004-07-29 Sold (Public Records) $42,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.0%/yr

Latest (2023): $198 · +6.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.