1281 Geesey Ave · Mio, MI 48647

$75,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · SingleFamily · 111 Days on market

Built 2004 Poor condition 0.79 ac lot $112/sqft · at area comps Est $75k · at est. ↓ 42% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.6/30.0
• DSCR +8.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.2/15.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

"HOME OF THE AuSable RIVER"! Great buildable extra large lot with beautiful mature trees just south of downtown MIO with a (28 x 24) garage built in 2004 with electricity, natural gas hook up. Garage has a hanging Furnace system w/ thermostat. Insulated with a big 18' x 8' high door, side entrance, floor drain, 250 amp/30 amp for trailer hock up. Has 5'' well & frost-free faucet and sewer located back corner of garage. Bring your travel trailer, side by sides, four wheelers, canos, kayaks and tubs to enjoy the endless opportunities that await you. NO ROOMS SIZES in structure.

Key facts

• Side entrance
• Garage built in 2004
• Big high door

Tags

• EXTRA LARGE LOT
• MATURE TREES
• GARAGE BUILT IN 2004
• HEATED INSULATED GARAGE
• BIG HIGH DOOR
• SIDE ENTRANCE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $75k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $177 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($793 rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $68k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#557 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Mio-Ausable Schools (rural): math 31% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #351 of 540 in MI (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 46 active listings in the ZIP; 29 units permitted in Oscoda County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Oscoda County population projected at -32% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 111 days — a 9% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $68,250 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 111 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.11%
• DSCR: 1.45
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $74,541
• List price: $75,000
• Delta: 0.62%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-911
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.65×
• Total profit: $13,600
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48647

• Home prices YoY: -14.3%
• Active inventory: 46
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $793 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$25 /mo · $303/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$167
• Net cashflow: $177

Break-even live

Break-even rent $569

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $219	-5% $198	+0% $177	+5% $156	+10% $135
Rent	-10% $114	-5% $146	+0% $177	+5% $208	+10% $240
Rate	-1.0pp $215	-0.5pp $196	base $177	+0.5pp $158	+1.0pp $138

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $75,000 Active 111 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,000 Active 109 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,000 Active 108 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,000 Active 107 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $75,000 Active 106 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $75,000 Active 104 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $75,000 Active 103 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $75,000 Active 100 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $75,000 Active 99 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $75,000 Active 98 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $75,000 Active 97 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $75,000 Active 94 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $75,000 Active 93 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $75,000 Active 92 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,000 Active 91 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,000 Active 90 DOM
17. 2026-02-28
    listed $75,000 Active 598-char remark

    Show marketing remark (598 chars)

    "HOME OF THE AuSable RIVER"! Great buildable extra large lot with beautiful mature trees just south of downtown MIO with a (28 x 24) garage built in 2004 with electricity, natural gas hook up. Garage has a hanging Furnace system w/ thermostat. Insulated with a big 18' x 8' high door, side entrance, floor drain, 250 amp/30 amp for trailer hock up. Has 5'' well & frost-free faucet and sewer located back corner of garage. Bring your travel trailer, side by sides, four wheelers, canos, kayaks and tubs to enjoy the endless opportunities that await you. NO ROOMS SIZES in structure.

18. 2026-02-28
    listed $75,000 Active 598-char remark

    Show marketing remark (598 chars)

    "HOME OF THE AuSable RIVER"! Great buildable extra large lot with beautiful mature trees just south of downtown MIO with a (28 x 24) garage built in 2004 with electricity, natural gas hook up. Garage has a hanging Furnace system w/ thermostat. Insulated with a big 18' x 8' high door, side entrance, floor drain, 250 amp/30 amp for trailer hock up. Has 5'' well & frost-free faucet and sewer located back corner of garage. Bring your travel trailer, side by sides, four wheelers, canos, kayaks and tubs to enjoy the endless opportunities that await you. NO ROOMS SIZES in structure.

19. 2023-08-29
    listed $129,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $303 · $25/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $729 · $61/mo
• Expected delta: +$426/yr (+$36/mo · 140.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major 75% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,521
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$303
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$762
• − Management: −$762
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $937
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$225
• After-tax cash flow: $1,899/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 10 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive repairs and maintenance, including exterior siding, roof, and HVAC/mechanicals. Significant investment is needed to bring it up to a livable condition.

Repairs flagged

• Major exterior siding — No visible siding
• Major roof — No visible damage
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — No visible HVAC/mechanicals

Value-add opportunities

• Both exterior siding — Improves curb appeal and value
• Both roof — Prevents water damage and enhances value
• Both HVAC/mechanicals — Ensures comfort and energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · No visible siding	Major	$15,000–50,000
roof · No visible damage	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/mechanicals · No visible HVAC/mechanicals	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$45,000–150,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both exterior siding — Improves curb appeal and value ↑
• Both roof — Prevents water damage and enhances value ↑
• Both HVAC/mechanicals — Ensures comfort and energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mio-Ausable Schools
• NCES district ID: 2624000
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $34,216
• Composite: 26.35/100
• National rank: #7236
• State rank: #351 of 540 in MI

Livability — Mio

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #557
• US rank: #17534

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mio, MI
• Population (ZIP): 4,044

Population outlook (Oscoda County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 7,410 people
• By 2030: 6,884 · -7.1%
• By 2040: 5,853 · -21.0%
• By 2050: 5,055 · -31.8%
• By 2075: 3,832 · -48.3%
• By 2100: 2,863 · -61.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Iranian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · German/W. Germanic 11% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Oscoda

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.3) · D 27.2% · R 71.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.3pp toward R · 2008: -10.0pp · 2024: -44.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.3 2020: R+43.6 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+10.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -29.34%
• Current HPI: 176.2398
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-41.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-28 Listed $75,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-02-28 Listed $75,000 REALCOMP
• 2023-08-29 Listed $129,000 WWMLS

Property tax history

-4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $303 · -21.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.