451 Portage St · Watertown, NY 13601

$104,900

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,098 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 129 Days on market

Built 1880 3,198 sqft lot Est $158k · 34% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Come and see this great starter home! The property just came back on teh market after finacning fell through. 2 Bedroom and 2 Bath house with new flooring throughout. The first floor was fully painted. The full baths offer tile flooring and a jacuzzi style tub. The home has newer wiring and windows. If you are looking for your first home you will want to see this.

Key facts

• Fully painted
• New flooring
• Newer windows

Tags

• NEW FLOORING
• FULLY PAINTED
• TILE FLOORING
• JACUZZI STYLE TUB
• NEWER WIRING
• NEWER WINDOWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $276 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $92k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.4% vs local median 6.2% in Watertown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#540 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living A-, housing A-; Watch: amenities C-, schools D, crime F.
• Watertown City School District (urban): math 34% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #481 of 590 in NY (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+10.0%/yr); 223 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 196 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $725 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1880 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $92,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1880 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.27%
• DSCR: 1.50
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $158,112
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
472 Portage St	0.06mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,144 (+4%)	5mo	$40,000	$35	75
467 S Massey St	0.13mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,020 (-7%)	0mo	$207,000	$203	75
508 Pine St	0.10mi	2/1.0	1,008 (-8%)	3mo	$196,760	$195	73
415 S Meadow St	0.12mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,180 (+8%)	11mo	$107,000	$91	64
516 Dimmick St	0.25mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,056 (-4%)	9mo	$185,000	$175	63
463 Paddock St	0.20mi	2/1.5	1,248 (+14%)	3mo	$279,000	$224	61
212 S Meadow	0.28mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,240 (+13%)	6mo	$100,000	$81	54
146 Smith St	0.33mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,069 (-3%)	21mo	$35,000	$33	52
463 S Massey St	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,240 (+13%)	23mo	$178,800	$144	51
273 Mullin St	0.33mi	2/1.0	936 (-15%)	12mo	$145,000	$155	44
151 Palmer St	0.64mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,072 (-2%)	19mo	$65,000	$61	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.24×
• Total profit: $7,182
• Equity at exit: $15,641

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.01×
• Total profit: $58,972
• Equity at exit: $9,070

Cash invested: $29,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13601

• Home prices YoY: -5.6%
• Rents YoY: 10.0%
• Active inventory: 223
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,250 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$550
• Tax from tax record: −$118 /mo · $1,410/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$262
• Net cashflow: $276

Break-even live

Break-even rent $900

Max offer price $104,900

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,225
• Closing costs: $3,147
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
136 N Meadow St Unit A Watertown, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$995	$0.99	43d	1	0.50mi
159 Mullin St Unit 2 Watertown, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,200	$1.33	43d	1	0.58mi
152 Court St Unit 5 Watertown, NY	1.0	1.0	850	$1,375	$1.62	43d	1	0.77mi
207 Wealtha Ave Watertown, NY	2.0–4.0	1.0–2.5	1435	$1,304	$0.91	43d	9	0.83mi
351 W Main St Watertown, NY	1.0	1.0	1000	$995	$0.99	43d	1	0.91mi
328 Clay St Unit 3 Watertown, NY	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,650	$1.10	43d	1	0.92mi
334 Clay St Unit 4 Watertown, NY	1.0	1.0	700	$1,070	$1.53	43d	1	0.93mi
611 Cooper St Watertown, NY	3.0	1.0	1190	$1,495	$1.26	43d	1	1.12mi
720 Cadwell St Watertown, NY	2.0	1.5	1300	$995	$0.77	43d	1	1.22mi
123 State Pl Watertown, NY	3.0	1.5	1500	$1,750	$1.17	43d	1	1.29mi
311 High St Watertown, NY	2.0	1.0	851	$1,200	$1.41	43d	1	1.30mi
816 Boyd St Unit 1 Watertown, NY	2.0	1.0	980	$1,500	$1.53	43d	1	1.40mi
911 State St Unit 3 Watertown, NY	3.0	1.0	1200	$995	$0.83	43d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-04-23
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-27
   price $104,900
3. 2026-03-27
   status Active
4. 2026-02-09
   status Pending
5. 2025-10-31
   price $109,000
6. 2025-10-30
   listed $119,000 Active
7. 2020-01-10
   historical
8. 2019-07-12
   listed $89,900
9. 2018-01-01
   historical
10. 2017-02-04
    listed $100,000
11. 2010-02-01
    soldstatus $95,000
12. 2010-01-27
    soldstatus $95,000
13. 2009-07-01
    listed $99,500
14. 2008-10-28
    soldstatus $15,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,410 · $118/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,591 · $133/mo
• Expected delta: +$181/yr (+$15/mo · 12.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,994
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,876
• − Property taxes: −$1,410
• − Insurance: −$524
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,200
• − Management: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$3,052
• Taxable income: $1,733
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$416
• After-tax cash flow: $2,894/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Watertown City School District
• NCES district ID: 3630120
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $40,919
• Composite: 36.86/100
• National rank: #4551
• State rank: #481 of 590 in NY

Livability — Watertown

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #540
• US rank: #9700

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A- Crime F Employment D- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Watertown, NY
• County: Jefferson County · 47,417 people
• City population: 36,839
• Metro: Watertown-Fort Drum, NY
• Population (ZIP): 36,839
• Household income: $58,791
• Rent vs Own: 51.4% rent · 48.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1634.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,748 people
• By 2030: 109,370 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 103,828 · -7.1%
• By 2050: 98,523 · -11.8%
• By 2075: 91,422 · -18.2%
• By 2100: 78,214 · -30.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.6) · D 38.2% · R 61.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.3pp toward R · 2008: -5.3pp · 2024: -23.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.6 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+22.4 2012: R+2.9 2008: R+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -18.86%
• Current HPI: 316.636
• Rent YoY: ▲ 9.96%
• Metro: Watertown-Fort Drum, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+599.3% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Pending — CNYIS
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $104,900 CNYIS
• 2026-03-27 Relisted — CNYIS
• 2026-02-09 Pending — CNYIS
• 2025-10-31 Price Changed $109,000 CNYIS
• 2025-10-30 Listed $119,000 CNYIS
• 2020-01-10 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2019-07-12 Listed $89,900 CNYIS
• 2018-01-01 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2017-02-04 Listed $100,000 CNYIS
• 2010-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $95,000 Public Records
• 2010-01-27 Sold (MLS) $95,000 CNYIS
• 2009-07-01 Listed $99,500 CNYIS
• 2008-10-28 Sold (Public Records) $15,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+18.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,410 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.