11618 Bell Bay · Presque Isle Harbor, MI 49777

$160,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,407 sqft · SingleFamily

Built 1961 0.62 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This home will impress the fussiest buyers! Open living, New Kitchen with stainless steel appliances, 2 New baths, dark walnut wood flooring, roof less than 10 years old, windows, huge laundry/storage and newly painted. All bedrooms are great size. Wood burning stove in living room. Access to Lake Huron at end of street.

Key facts

• 0.62 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1961

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $45 ($537/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $127k (20.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $127k (20.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#317 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, health & safety D+, amenities F.
• Alpena Public Schools (town): math 26% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #345 of 540 in MI (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 111 active listings in the ZIP; 46 units permitted in Presque Isle County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Presque Isle County population projected at -31% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $127,399 (20.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.20%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.01×
• Total profit: $89,921
• Equity at exit: $144,141

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.86×
• Total profit: $262,423
• Equity at exit: $310,845

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49777

• Home prices YoY: 11.0%
• Active inventory: 111
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,274 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$56 /mo · $672/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$268
• Net cashflow: $45

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,217

Max offer price $160,000

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2024-12-17
   status Pending
2. 2022-08-29
   soldstatus $155,500 322-char remark

   Show marketing remark (322 chars)

   This home will impress the fussiest buyers! Open living, New Kitchen with stainless steel appliances, 2 New baths, dark walnut wood flooring, roof less than 10 years old, windows, huge laundry/storage and newly painted. All bedrooms are great size. Wood burning stove in living room. Access to Lake Huron at end of street.

3. 2022-08-29
   listed $160,000 322-char remark

   Show marketing remark (322 chars)

   This home will impress the fussiest buyers! Open living, New Kitchen with stainless steel appliances, 2 New baths, dark walnut wood flooring, roof less than 10 years old, windows, huge laundry/storage and newly painted. All bedrooms are great size. Wood burning stove in living room. Access to Lake Huron at end of street.

4. 2022-08-29
   soldstatus $155,500

   Show marketing remark (322 chars)

   This home will impress the fussiest buyers! Open living, New Kitchen with stainless steel appliances, 2 New baths, dark walnut wood flooring, roof less than 10 years old, windows, huge laundry/storage and newly painted. All bedrooms are great size. Wood burning stove in living room. Access to Lake Huron at end of street.

5. 2022-07-15
   historical
6. 2022-07-15
   historical
7. 2022-06-21
   listed $160,000
8. 2022-06-21
   listed $160,000
9. 2013-05-13
   listed $89,900
10. 2011-04-29
    soldstatus $45,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $672 · $56/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,568 · $131/mo
• Expected delta: +$896/yr (+$75/mo · 133.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,288
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$672
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,223
• − Management: −$1,223
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable loss: −$2,247
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$539
• After-tax cash flow: $1,076/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alpena Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2602730
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $39,327
• Composite: 26.8/100
• National rank: #7119
• State rank: #345 of 540 in MI

Livability — Presque Isle Harbor

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #317
• US rank: #7729

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,933

Population outlook (Presque Isle County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 11,675 people
• By 2030: 10,939 · -6.3%
• By 2040: 9,337 · -20.0%
• By 2050: 8,046 · -31.1%
• By 2075: 6,378 · -45.4%
• By 2100: 5,045 · -56.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 27% Lithuanian 8% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Presque Isle

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.0) · D 34.7% · R 63.7% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.5pp toward R · 2008: 1.5pp · 2024: -29.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.0 2020: R+29.1 2016: R+28.9 2012: R+8.5 2008: D+1.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 26.68%
• Current HPI: 268.3
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+245.6% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2024-12-17 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2022-08-29 Sold (Public Records) $155,500 Public Records
• 2022-08-29 Listed $160,000 WWMLS
• 2022-08-29 Sold (MLS) $155,500 WWMLS
• 2022-07-15 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-07-15 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2022-06-21 Listed $160,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2022-06-21 Listed $160,000 REALCOMP
• 2013-05-13 Listed $89,900 WWMLS
• 2011-04-29 Sold (Public Records) $45,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $672 · -49.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.