4015 Overland Dr · Lawrence, KS 66049

$215,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,301 sqft · Townhouse public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1992 3,000 sqft lot Est $219k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.5/30.0
• ARV discount +8.2/15.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bath townhome with a 2-car garage located in a convenient Lawrence location. Currently tenant-occupied with leases in place through July 31; a minimum of 24-hour notice is required for all showings. This property offers a functional layout with strong potential for both owner-occupants and investors alike.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 1992
• Listed 2 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $166 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $207k (3.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $207k (3.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 2.7% in Lawrence — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 88/100 on livability (#1 in KS, #237 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime D-.
• Lawrence (urban): math 31% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #46 of 169 in KS (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 136 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 246 units permitted in Douglas County in 2024 (38 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Douglas County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $206,615 (3.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.32%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $218,568
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4015 Overland Dr	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,301 (0%)	1mo	$215,000	$165	99
4013 Overland Dr	0.01mi	4/2.0	1,301 (0%)	1mo	$219,000	$168	99
1001 Alma Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,223 (-6%)	8mo	$229,500	$188	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.64% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-20,760
• Equity at exit: $32,057

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $10,345
• Equity at exit: $18,589

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kansas: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; moderate court pace.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 66049

• Rents YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 136
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,066 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$249 /mo · $2,986/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$434
• Net cashflow: $166

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,856

Max offer price $215,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $288	-5% $227	+0% $166	+5% $105	+10% $45
Rent	-10% $3	-5% $85	+0% $166	+5% $248	+10% $330
Rate	-1.0pp $275	-0.5pp $221	base $166	+0.5pp $111	+1.0pp $54

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-23
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (329 chars)

   Spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bath townhome with a 2-car garage located in a convenient Lawrence location. Currently tenant-occupied with leases in place through July 31; a minimum of 24-hour notice is required for all showings. This property offers a functional layout with strong potential for both owner-occupants and investors alike.

2. 2026-04-23
   historical Active Under Contract 329-char remark

   Show marketing remark (329 chars)

   Spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bath townhome with a 2-car garage located in a convenient Lawrence location. Currently tenant-occupied with leases in place through July 31; a minimum of 24-hour notice is required for all showings. This property offers a functional layout with strong potential for both owner-occupants and investors alike.

3. 2026-04-21
   listed $215,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (329 chars)

   Spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bath townhome with a 2-car garage located in a convenient Lawrence location. Currently tenant-occupied with leases in place through July 31; a minimum of 24-hour notice is required for all showings. This property offers a functional layout with strong potential for both owner-occupants and investors alike.

4. 2026-04-21
   listed $215,000 Active 329-char remark

   Show marketing remark (329 chars)

   Spacious 4-bedroom, 2-bath townhome with a 2-car garage located in a convenient Lawrence location. Currently tenant-occupied with leases in place through July 31; a minimum of 24-hour notice is required for all showings. This property offers a functional layout with strong potential for both owner-occupants and investors alike.

5. 2013-04-01
   soldstatus
6. 2011-07-15
   soldstatus
7. 2001-03-08
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,986 · $249/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,032 · $253/mo
• Expected delta: +$45/yr (+$4/mo · 1.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,794
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$2,986
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,984
• − Management: −$1,984
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable loss: −$1,532
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$368
• After-tax cash flow: $2,364/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lawrence
• NCES district ID: 2008400
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $46,259
• Composite: 32.02/100
• National rank: #5826
• State rank: #46 of 169 in KS

Livability — Lawrence

• Score: 88/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #237

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lawrence, KS
• County: Douglas County · 100,966 people
• City population: 100,966
• Metro: Lawrence, KS
• Population (ZIP): 32,015
• Household income: $90,147
• Rent vs Own: 45.0% rent · 55.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1866.0

Population outlook (Douglas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 136,863 people
• By 2030: 147,255 · +7.6%
• By 2040: 167,760 · +22.6%
• By 2050: 190,593 · +39.3%
• By 2075: 253,850 · +85.5%
• By 2100: 314,741 · +130.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 9% Asian 5% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Chinese 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Douglas

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+38.0) · D 68.2% · R 30.2% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: 30.8pp · 2024: 38.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+38.0 2020: D+39.5 2016: D+32.7 2012: D+23.7 2008: D+30.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -189.19%
• Current HPI: 221.5047
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.64%
• Metro: Lawrence, KS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Pending — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-23 Contingent — Lawrence MLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-04-21 Listed $215,000 Lawrence MLS as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-04-21 Listed $215,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-04-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2011-07-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-03-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,986 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.