1855 E 166 Rd · El Dorado Springs, MO 64744

$15,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 728 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1940 ↓ 32% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Outside city limits but on city utilities. Home has new plumbing, electric, roof and septic. Shop/gargage and fencing adds to the usefulness of the property.

Key facts

• 1 acre
• Built 1940
• Listed 7 days

Tags

• 1 ACRE
• UTILITIES ALREADY IN PLACE
• LOCATED OUTSIDE CITY LIMITS
• EXISTING HOUSE ON PROPERTY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $15k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $540 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($805 rent vs $15k).
• Cap rate 49.5% vs local median 4.9% in El Dorado Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#370 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• El Dorado Springs R-II (town): math 25% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #279 of 324 in MO (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Cedar County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($104 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Cedar County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $4k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $15,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 49.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 154.38%
• DSCR: 7.87
• GRM: 1.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $81,536
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
901 S Jackson St	0.66mi	2/1.0	728 (0%)	7mo	$109,500	$150	64
106 N High St E	0.36mi	2/1.0	800 (+10%)	19mo	$79,900	$100	51
311 W Pine St	0.53mi	2/2.0	800 (+10%)	6mo	$89,900	$112	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 11.14×
• Total profit: $42,591
• Equity at exit: $13,513

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 24.42×
• Total profit: $98,374
• Equity at exit: $29,142

Cash invested: $4,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64744

• Home prices YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 1.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $805 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$79
• Tax from tax record: −$11 /mo · $127/yr
• Insurance: −$6
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$169
• Net cashflow: $540

Break-even live

Break-even rent $121

Max offer price $15,000

Occupancy floor 28%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $549	-5% $545	+0% $540	+5% $536	+10% $532
Rent	-10% $477	-5% $509	+0% $540	+5% $572	+10% $604
Rate	-1.0pp $548	-0.5pp $544	base $540	+0.5pp $536	+1.0pp $532

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $3,750
• Closing costs: $450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $15,000 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $15,000 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $15,000 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $15,000 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $15,000 Active 2 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   remarks 615-char remark
7. 2026-06-14
   listed $15,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $127 · $11/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $146 · $12/mo
• Expected delta: +$19/yr (+$2/mo · 15.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,658
• − Mortgage interest: −$840
• − Property taxes: −$127
• − Insurance: −$75
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$773
• − Management: −$773
• − Depreciation: −$436
• Taxable income: $6,634
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,592
• After-tax cash flow: $4,892/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: El Dorado Springs R-II
• NCES district ID: 2911310
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $31,880
• Composite: 24.02/100
• National rank: #7772
• State rank: #279 of 324 in MO

Livability — El Dorado Springs

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #370
• US rank: #16324

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,547

Population outlook (Cedar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,424 people
• By 2030: 13,080 · -2.6%
• By 2040: 12,434 · -7.4%
• By 2050: 11,841 · -11.8%
• By 2075: 10,171 · -24.2%
• By 2100: 7,744 · -42.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Iranian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · German/W. Germanic 5% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cedar

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+69.6) · D 14.8% · R 84.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.0pp toward R · 2008: -33.6pp · 2024: -69.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+69.6 2020: R+65.9 2016: R+63.9 2012: R+47.0 2008: R+33.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 11.88%
• Current HPI: 242.0421
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-31.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-14 Listed $15,000 FSBO.com
• 2012-07-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2012-07-19 Sold (MLS) — Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-02-23 Listed $21,900 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $127 · +10.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.