306 S 15th Ave W · Newton, IA 50208

$165,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 98 Days on market

Built 1986 0.54 ac lot $98/sqft · 17% below area Est $200k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

New Laminate & Carpet Floors throughout the Home. New Kitchen and 2 New Bath Rooms. New Furnace/Air & Water Heater. New Roof with 3 Bed rooms 1680 sq ft on 1/2 Acers with 2 Wood Decks. Ready to move in.

Key facts

• New furnace
• New kitchen
• New air

Tags

• NEW KITCHEN
• NEW BATH ROOMS
• NEW FURNACE
• NEW AIR
• NEW WATER HEATER
• NEW ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $178 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $156k (5.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $150k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 3.1% in Newton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#169 in IA, #3,069 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Newton Community School District (town): math 59% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #245 of 289 in IA (top 85%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 242 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 16 units permitted in Jasper County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jasper County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 98 days — a 9% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $46k; list at $165k implies a 257% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $150,150 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 98 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.63%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $199,906
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: -17.46%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
618 S 6th Ave W	0.63mi	4/2.0	1,631 (-3%)	1mo	$275,500	$169	65
1015 W 3rd St S	0.30mi	4/2.5	1,621 (-4%)	20mo	$215,000	$133	62
103 S 8th Ave E	0.45mi	4/2.0	1,847 (+10%)	4mo	$166,000	$90	59
1512 W 9th St S	0.45mi	4/3.0	1,910 (+14%)	0mo	$425,000	$223	52
815 S 5th Ave W	0.71mi	4/2.0	1,800 (+7%)	8mo	$201,500	$112	48
1206 S 14th Ave W	0.60mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,768 (+5%)	7mo	$299,900	$170	48
801 S 5th Ave W	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,644 (-2%)	13mo	$350,000	$213	48
403 E 2nd St S	0.73mi	4/2.0	1,535 (-9%)	8mo	$222,500	$145	44
516 E 2nd St S	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,731 (+3%)	21mo	$177,500	$103	42
1121 Woodland Dr	0.57mi	3/4.0 (-1)	1,803 (+7%)	9mo	$375,000	$208	41
611 W 2nd St S	0.56mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,465 (-13%)	10mo	$227,130	$155	40
420 W 5th St S	0.67mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,436 (-14%)	21mo	$133,900	$93	18

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-15,417
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $1,074
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Iowa: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; mostly landlord-friendly statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 50208

• Home prices YoY: -14.4%
• Active inventory: 242
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,563 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$122 /mo · $1,470/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$328
• Net cashflow: $178

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,337

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
712 W 12th St S Newton, IA	3.0	2.5	2087	$1,700	$0.81	23d	1	0.71mi
527 1st Ave W Newton, IA	4.0	2.0	2136	$1,850	$0.87	44d	1	0.93mi
812 N 3rd Ave W Newton, IA	4.0	1.0	1450	$1,450	$1.00	14d	1	1.18mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 98 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 97 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 96 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 95 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $165,000 Active 93 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 92 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $165,000 Active 90 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 89 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,000 Active 88 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $165,000 Active 87 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $165,000 Active 84 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $165,000 Active 83 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,000 Active 82 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,000 Active 81 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 80 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 79 DOM
17. 2026-03-12
    listed $165,000 Active 214-char remark

    Show marketing remark (214 chars)

    New Laminate & Carpet Floors throughout the Home. New Kitchen and 2 New Bath Rooms. New Furnace/Air & Water Heater. New Roof with 3 Bed rooms 1680 sq ft on 1/2 Acers with 2 Wood Decks. Ready to move in.

18. 2025-08-07
    listed $70,000 Active
19. 2022-07-27
    soldstatus $46,200

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,470 · $122/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,030 · $169/mo
• Expected delta: +$560/yr (+$47/mo · 38.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,755
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$1,470
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,500
• − Management: −$1,500
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$583
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$140
• After-tax cash flow: $2,278/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Newton Community School District
• NCES district ID: 1920610
• Math proficiency: 59% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $46,447
• Composite: 51.15/100
• National rank: #1762
• State rank: #245 of 289 in IA

Livability — Newton

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #3069

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Newton, IA
• County: Jasper County · 20,595 people
• City population: 20,595
• Metro: Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA
• Population (ZIP): 20,595
• Household income: $62,306
• Rent vs Own: 34.5% rent · 65.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 536.0

Population outlook (Jasper County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 36,216 people
• By 2030: 35,730 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 34,727 · -4.1%
• By 2050: 33,802 · -6.7%
• By 2075: 33,382 · -7.8%
• By 2100: 32,761 · -9.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 8% Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Arabic 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jasper

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.6) · D 35.4% · R 63.0% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -35.1pp toward R · 2008: 7.5pp · 2024: -27.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.6 2020: R+21.5 2016: R+18.4 2012: D+7.1 2008: D+7.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.48%
• Current HPI: 269.6454
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$16B
▸Retail / Convenience	1	$15B

Price history

+257.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-12 Listed $165,000 DMMLS
• 2025-08-07 Listed $70,000 DMMLS
• 2022-07-27 Sold (Public Records) $46,200 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,470 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.