8024 W Hemlock Ave · Lake, MI 49304

$99,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 790 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 69 Days on market

Built 1960 4,996 sqft lot $126/sqft · 48% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 2 bedroom/ 1 bath cottage is located in the Chain of Lakes area with public access to all sports Big Star Lake and several smaller fishing lakes AND hundreds of acres of Federal Land with a trail head just around the corner for your side by side needs. The cottage has been updated with pex plumbing and roof over the carport and back bedroom, and oh so cute! This is a great central location on a county maintained road for year around access, close to trails, hunting lands and lake access. Great family retreat with room to spread out with porches, patios, and firepit. A Real ''must see''!!!

Key facts

• 4,996 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1960

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $28 ($333/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $85k (15.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $85k (15.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 1.9% in Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Baldwin Community Schools (rural): math 21% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #618 of 760 in MI (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 85% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 167 active listings in the ZIP; 30 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 11 sale attempts since 19y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $67k; 49% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $84,878 (15.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.63%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.19%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $208,650
• List price: $99,900
• Delta: -52.12%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8336 W Central Park Blvd	0.35mi	2/1.0	820 (+4%)	12mo	$160,000	$195	67

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-14,435
• Equity at exit: $14,895

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-10,358
• Equity at exit: $8,638

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49304

• Home prices YoY: -30.4%
• Active inventory: 167
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $849 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$77 /mo · $927/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$178
• Net cashflow: $28

Break-even live

Break-even rent $814

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 40 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,900 Active 69 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,900 Active 68 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,900 Active 67 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   price $99,900 Active 66 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,900 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,900 Active 64 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $119,900 Active 63 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,900 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,900 Active 59 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $119,900 Active 58 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $119,900 Active 57 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $119,900 Active 54 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,900 Active 53 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,900 Active 52 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,900 Active 51 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,900 Active 50 DOM
17. 2026-04-10
    listed $119,900 Active 601-char remark

    Show marketing remark (601 chars)

    This 2 bedroom/ 1 bath cottage is located in the Chain of Lakes area with public access to all sports Big Star Lake and several smaller fishing lakes AND hundreds of acres of Federal Land with a trail head just around the corner for your side by side needs. The cottage has been updated with pex plumbing and roof over the carport and back bedroom, and oh so cute! This is a great central location on a county maintained road for year around access, close to trails, hunting lands and lake access. Great family retreat with room to spread out with porches, patios, and firepit. A Real ''must see''!!!

18. 2026-04-06
    listed $119,900 Active 600-char remark

    Show marketing remark (600 chars)

    This 2 bedroom/ 1 bath cottage is located in the Chain of Lakes area with public access to all sports Big Star Lake and several smaller fishing lakes AND hundreds of acres of Federal Land with a trail head just around the corner for your side by side needs. The cottage has been updated with pex plumbing and roof over the carport and back bedroom, and oh so cute! This is a great central location on a county maintained road for year around access, close to trails, hunting lands and lake access. Great family retreat with room to spread out with porches, patios, and firepit. A Real ''must see''!!!

19. 2026-04-06
    listed $119,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (600 chars)

    This 2 bedroom/ 1 bath cottage is located in the Chain of Lakes area with public access to all sports Big Star Lake and several smaller fishing lakes AND hundreds of acres of Federal Land with a trail head just around the corner for your side by side needs. The cottage has been updated with pex plumbing and roof over the carport and back bedroom, and oh so cute! This is a great central location on a county maintained road for year around access, close to trails, hunting lands and lake access. Great family retreat with room to spread out with porches, patios, and firepit. A Real ''must see''!!!

20. 2021-01-08
    soldstatus $67,000 Sold
21. 2021-01-08
    soldstatus $67,000 Sold
22. 2020-12-11
    soldstatus $60,000
23. 2020-11-16
    status Pending
24. 2020-11-06
    historical
25. 2020-09-11
    listed $69,900
26. 2020-09-11
    listed $69,900 Active
27. 2020-09-11
    listed $69,900
28. 2020-02-22
    soldstatus $37,000
29. 2020-02-22
    soldstatus $37,000 Sold
30. 2020-02-22
    soldstatus $37,000
31. 2020-02-10
    status Pending
32. 2019-10-21
    price $46,500
33. 2019-08-31
    listed $46,500
34. 2019-08-31
    listed $47,900 Active
35. 2019-08-31
    listed $46,500
36. 2014-09-15
    historical
37. 2014-09-15
    historical
38. 2011-12-23
    soldstatus $30,000
39. 2008-11-07
    listed $52,500
40. 2007-09-25
    listed $44,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $927 · $77/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,233 · $103/mo
• Expected delta: +$306/yr (+$25/mo · 33.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,185
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$927
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$815
• − Management: −$815
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable loss: −$1,373
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$329
• After-tax cash flow: $663/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baldwin Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2603810
• Math proficiency: 21% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $27,638
• Composite: 22.56/100
• National rank: #13447
• State rank: #618 of 760 in MI

Livability — Lake

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,680

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,933 people
• By 2030: 10,503 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 9,470 · -13.4%
• By 2050: 8,526 · -22.0%
• By 2075: 7,160 · -34.5%
• By 2100: 5,634 · -48.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 12% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Iranian 5% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.2) · D 33.2% · R 65.4% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -44.5pp toward R · 2008: 12.3pp · 2024: -32.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.2 2020: R+26.2 2016: R+22.9 2012: D+5.0 2008: D+12.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.01%
• Current HPI: 116.6025
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+167.0% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Listed $119,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-06 Listed $119,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-04-06 Listed $119,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2021-01-08 Sold (MLS) $67,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2021-01-08 Sold (MLS) $67,000 REALCOMP
• 2020-12-11 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 2020-11-16 Pending — SW Michigan MLS
• 2020-11-06 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2020-09-11 Listed $69,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2020-09-11 Listed $69,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2020-09-11 Listed $69,900 REALCOMP
• 2020-02-22 Sold (Public Records) $37,000 Public Records
• 2020-02-22 Sold (MLS) $37,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2020-02-22 Sold (MLS) $37,000 REALCOMP
• 2020-02-10 Pending — SW Michigan MLS
• 2019-10-21 Price Changed $46,500 SW Michigan MLS
• 2019-08-31 Listed $46,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2019-08-31 Listed $47,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2019-08-31 Listed $46,500 REALCOMP
• 2014-09-15 Listing Removed — SW Michigan MLS
• 2014-09-15 Listing Removed — SW Michigan MLS
• 2011-12-23 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records
• 2008-11-07 Listed $52,500 SW Michigan MLS
• 2007-09-25 Listed $44,900 SW Michigan MLS

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2024): $927 · +5.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.