46232 Road 417 · Coarsegold, CA 93614

$305,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · SingleFamily · 47 Days on market

Built 1975 1.17 ac lot $212/sqft · 69% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Country living at its finest. Set on a beautifully maintained 1.17-acre parcel, this inviting property showcases lush landscaping, mature fruit trees, and an extensive flower garden surrounding a well-appointed 2-bedroom, 2-bath mobile home. Inside, an open floor plan features a spacious kitchen, two dining areas, and a generous living room designed for comfort and effortless entertaining. Two enclosed patios add approximately 338 square feet of additional living spaceperfect for relaxing and taking in the peaceful surroundings. Two covered carports provide convenient parking for multiple vehicles. The property is fully fenced and cross-fenced, ideal for animals or hobby farming, and includ

Key facts

• 1.17 acre lot
• Built 1975
• Listed 47 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Carport; RV access/parking
• Utilities: Electric service on; Septic tank; Propane
• Home design: Mobile home; Park space owned; Fashion Manor make
• Construction: Metal roof; Metal siding; Wood subfloor foundation; Built as a mobile home
• Exterior features: One level; Covered patio/porch; Workshop and other outbuildings; Foothill setting; Manual sprinklers and drip irrigation

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heat and air; Evaporative cooling; Has heating and cooling
• Interior features: Utility room; Wood-burning fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $305k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $429 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $280k (8.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $280k (8.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 3.8% in Coarsegold — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#474 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A-; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Yosemite Unified (rural): math 23% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #321 of 517 in CA (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Yosemite High (math 57% / reading 72%, grade B-, #165 of 1,170 statewide, top 15%, 553 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 38% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 64% at this address vs 30% district-wide (+34 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Yosemite Unified average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 247 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,346 units permitted in Madera County in 2024 (8 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Madera County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($296k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $48k; list at $305k implies a 533% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $280,000 (8.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.03%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $180,000
• List price: $305,000
• Delta: 69.44%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
46725 Picayune Creek Rd	0.44mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,357 (-6%)	5mo	$345,000	$254	61
32888 Creek Ranch Rd	0.73mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (0%)	18mo	$220,000	$153	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-22,248
• Equity at exit: $45,476

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $15,183
• Equity at exit: $26,371

Cash invested: $85,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93614

• Home prices YoY: -32.1%
• Active inventory: 247
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,800 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,599
• Tax from tax record: −$56 /mo · $676/yr
• Insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$588
• Net cashflow: $429

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,257

Max offer price $305,000

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $602	-5% $515	+0% $429	+5% $343	+10% $256
Rent	-10% $208	-5% $319	+0% $429	+5% $540	+10% $650
Rate	-1.0pp $583	-0.5pp $507	base $429	+0.5pp $350	+1.0pp $270

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,250
• Closing costs: $9,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
31698 Comanche Rd Coarsegold, CA	3.0	2.0	1797	$2,800	$1.56	3d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $305,000 Active 47 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $305,000 Active 45 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $305,000 Active 44 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $305,000 Active 43 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $305,000 Active 42 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $305,000 Active 41 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $305,000 Active 39 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $305,000 Active 38 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $305,000 Active 36 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $305,000 Active 35 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $305,000 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $305,000 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $305,000 Active 30 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $305,000 Active 29 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $305,000 Active 28 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $305,000 Active 27 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $305,000 Active 26 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $305,000 Active 25 DOM
19. 2026-05-05
    listed $305,000 Active 1174-char remark
20. 1997-04-30
    soldstatus $48,182

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $676 · $56/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,318 · $193/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,642/yr (+$137/mo · 243.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 54 unhealthy d/yr today · 66 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,600
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,085
• − Property taxes: −$676
• − Insurance: −$1,525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,688
• − Management: −$2,688
• − Depreciation: −$8,873
• Taxable income: $66
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$16
• After-tax cash flow: $5,134/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Yosemite Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600160
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $53,950
• Composite: 26.94/100
• National rank: #7079
• State rank: #321 of 517 in CA

Livability — Coarsegold

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #474
• US rank: #16129

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C Cost of living F Crime C- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Coarsegold, CA
• City population: 11,144
• Population (ZIP): 11,144

Population outlook (Madera County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 157,915 people
• By 2030: 159,604 · +1.1%
• By 2040: 163,454 · +3.5%
• By 2050: 167,071 · +5.8%
• By 2075: 171,182 · +8.4%
• By 2100: 162,781 · +3.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 13% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Italian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Madera

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 38.4% · R 59.2% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.5pp toward R · 2008: -13.3pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+11.6 2016: R+17.3 2012: R+19.4 2008: R+13.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -100.85%
• Current HPI: 212.7962
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+533.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Listed $305,000 FRESNOMLS
• 1997-04-30 Sold (Public Records) $48,182 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $676 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.