1406 East Dr · Alden, NY 14004

$92,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured · 4 Days on market

Built 2021 Good condition 35 ac lot $64/sqft · 65% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.5/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautifully maintained 2021 doublewide home offering modern comfort and truly move-in ready living. Designed with both style and functionality in mind, this like-new home features 3 spacious bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, including a private primary suite with its own full bath. The open layout creates an easy flow between the living, dining, and kitchen areas-perfect for everyday living and entertaining. A new central air system ensures year-round comfort. Enjoy outdoor living with a welcoming covered front porch, ideal for morning coffee or evening relaxation. The backyard is equally inviting, featuring a fire pit for gatherings and a shed for convenient extra storage. All

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Extra storage
• Fire pit

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• FIRE PIT
• EXTRA STORAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land lease: $800

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-story; Double-wide mobile home; Resale property; Rectangular residential lot; Road frontage on a city street
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Slab foundation; Existing construction
• Exterior features: Concrete driveway; Covered porch; Shed(s) / storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range; Gas oven; Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Varies
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (both on main level)
• Heating & cooling: Gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Separate formal living room; Primary bedroom with private bath; Primary bedroom on main level
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $92k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $331 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $92k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#559 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, schools A, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Alden Central School District (suburban): math 53% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #229 of 590 in NY (top 39%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 51 active listings in the ZIP; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $640 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $26k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $92,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.33%
• DSCR: 1.68
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $55,960
• List price: $92,500
• Delta: 65.30%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1341 Village Park Dr	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,456 (0%)	17mo	$75,000	$52	82
13578 Holly Lane Ln	0.10mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,480 (+2%)	10mo	$65,000	$44	79
1306 Duchess Ln	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-8%)	8mo	$47,000	$35	74
1431 Chestnut St	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,352 (-7%)	22mo	$137,000	$101	66
1327 Village Park Dr	0.10mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (-8%)	20mo	$55,000	$41	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.24×
• Total profit: $6,098
• Equity at exit: $13,792

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.26×
• Total profit: $32,514
• Equity at exit: $7,998

Cash invested: $25,900 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14004

• Home prices YoY: -17.1%
• Active inventory: 51
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,228 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$485
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$116 /mo · $1,388/yr
• Insurance: −$39
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$258
• Net cashflow: $331

Break-even live

Break-even rent $809

Max offer price $92,500

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,125
• Closing costs: $2,775
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Pending 862-char remark
2. 2026-04-29
   price $92,500 862-char remark
3. 2026-04-29
   listed $92,400 Active 862-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,735
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,181
• − Property taxes: −$1,388
• − Insurance: −$462
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,179
• − Management: −$1,179
• − Depreciation: −$2,691
• Taxable income: $2,655
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$637
• After-tax cash flow: $3,332/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 2021 doublewide home is move-in ready with a good condition score and minimal repairs needed. It offers a good return on investment with updates that can further enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and value
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and attract more potential buyers
• Both Interior touch-ups — Fresh paint and minor touch-ups can improve the home's appearance and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and attract more potential buyers ↑
• Both Interior touch-ups — Fresh paint and minor touch-ups can improve the home's appearance and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alden Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3602550
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $62,135
• Composite: 51.77/100
• National rank: #1676
• State rank: #229 of 590 in NY

Livability — Alden

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #559
• US rank: #10069

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Alden, NY
• City population: 11,312
• Population (ZIP): 11,312

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 2% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 22% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -70.62%
• Current HPI: 342.0461
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+0.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $92,500 WNYREIS
• 2026-04-29 Listed $92,400 WNYREIS