9650 NW Gainesville Rd · Ocala, FL 34482

$265,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,299 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 550 Days on market

Built 2024 0.45 ac lot $204/sqft · 31% below area Est $398k · 33% under ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.2/30.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

New Construction • No HOA • 0.45 Acres Move right into this brand-new 3/2 home featuring an open layout, stainless steel appliances, and a fully fenced, gated yard. Private well and septic = added savings. Minutes to the World Equestrian Center with quick access to I-75 and the Turnpike. Enjoy peaceful country living close to everything. USDA financing available!

Key facts

• 0.45 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 2024

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-52 ($-627/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $256k (3.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $213k (19.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $213k (19.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.2% in Ocala — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#476 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.1%/yr); 663 active listings in the ZIP; 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 550 days — a 12% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $212,984 (19.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 550 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.85%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $398,183
• List price: $265,000
• Delta: -33.45%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-35,042
• Equity at exit: $39,512

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.22×
• Total profit: $16,319
• Equity at exit: $22,912

Cash invested: $74,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34482

• Rents YoY: 11.1%
• Active inventory: 663
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,130 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,390
• Tax from tax record: −$235 /mo · $2,817/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$447
• Net cashflow: $-52

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,196

Max offer price $255,767

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,250
• Closing costs: $7,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $265,000 Active 550 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $265,000 Active 549 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $265,000 Active 548 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $265,000 Active 547 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $265,000 Active 545 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $265,000 Active 544 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $265,000 Active 542 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $265,000 Active 541 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $265,000 Active 540 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $265,000 Active 539 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $265,000 Active 535 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $265,000 Active 534 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $265,000 Active 532 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $265,000 Active 531 DOM
15. 2026-04-26
    status Active 376-char remark

    Show marketing remark (376 chars)

    New Construction • No HOA • 0.45 Acres Move right into this brand-new 3/2 home featuring an open layout, stainless steel appliances, and a fully fenced, gated yard. Private well and septic = added savings. Minutes to the World Equestrian Center with quick access to I-75 and the Turnpike. Enjoy peaceful country living close to everything. USDA financing available!

16. 2026-03-28
    status Pending 376-char remark

    Show marketing remark (376 chars)

    New Construction • No HOA • 0.45 Acres Move right into this brand-new 3/2 home featuring an open layout, stainless steel appliances, and a fully fenced, gated yard. Private well and septic = added savings. Minutes to the World Equestrian Center with quick access to I-75 and the Turnpike. Enjoy peaceful country living close to everything. USDA financing available!

17. 2026-03-27
    price $265,000 376-char remark

    Show marketing remark (376 chars)

    New Construction • No HOA • 0.45 Acres Move right into this brand-new 3/2 home featuring an open layout, stainless steel appliances, and a fully fenced, gated yard. Private well and septic = added savings. Minutes to the World Equestrian Center with quick access to I-75 and the Turnpike. Enjoy peaceful country living close to everything. USDA financing available!

18. 2026-02-24
    price $264,000 376-char remark

    Show marketing remark (376 chars)

    New Construction • No HOA • 0.45 Acres Move right into this brand-new 3/2 home featuring an open layout, stainless steel appliances, and a fully fenced, gated yard. Private well and septic = added savings. Minutes to the World Equestrian Center with quick access to I-75 and the Turnpike. Enjoy peaceful country living close to everything. USDA financing available!

19. 2025-11-04
    price $265,000 376-char remark

    Show marketing remark (376 chars)

    New Construction • No HOA • 0.45 Acres Move right into this brand-new 3/2 home featuring an open layout, stainless steel appliances, and a fully fenced, gated yard. Private well and septic = added savings. Minutes to the World Equestrian Center with quick access to I-75 and the Turnpike. Enjoy peaceful country living close to everything. USDA financing available!

20. 2025-07-26
    price $269,000 376-char remark

    Show marketing remark (376 chars)

    New Construction • No HOA • 0.45 Acres Move right into this brand-new 3/2 home featuring an open layout, stainless steel appliances, and a fully fenced, gated yard. Private well and septic = added savings. Minutes to the World Equestrian Center with quick access to I-75 and the Turnpike. Enjoy peaceful country living close to everything. USDA financing available!

21. 2025-04-04
    price $275,000 376-char remark

    Show marketing remark (376 chars)

    New Construction • No HOA • 0.45 Acres Move right into this brand-new 3/2 home featuring an open layout, stainless steel appliances, and a fully fenced, gated yard. Private well and septic = added savings. Minutes to the World Equestrian Center with quick access to I-75 and the Turnpike. Enjoy peaceful country living close to everything. USDA financing available!

22. 2025-03-09
    price $287,000 376-char remark

    Show marketing remark (376 chars)

    New Construction • No HOA • 0.45 Acres Move right into this brand-new 3/2 home featuring an open layout, stainless steel appliances, and a fully fenced, gated yard. Private well and septic = added savings. Minutes to the World Equestrian Center with quick access to I-75 and the Turnpike. Enjoy peaceful country living close to everything. USDA financing available!

23. 2024-11-16
    listed $295,000 Active 376-char remark

    Show marketing remark (376 chars)

    New Construction • No HOA • 0.45 Acres Move right into this brand-new 3/2 home featuring an open layout, stainless steel appliances, and a fully fenced, gated yard. Private well and septic = added savings. Minutes to the World Equestrian Center with quick access to I-75 and the Turnpike. Enjoy peaceful country living close to everything. USDA financing available!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,817 · $235/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,817 · $235/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,558
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,844
• − Property taxes: −$2,817
• − Insurance: −$1,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,045
• − Management: −$2,045
• − Depreciation: −$7,709
• Taxable loss: −$5,226
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,254
• After-tax cash flow: $627/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ocala

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #476
• US rank: #8461

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• City population: 263,375
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 22,807
• Household income: $65,901
• Rent vs Own: 16.7% rent · 83.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 282.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 19% Black 14% Two or more races 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 9% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -133.62%
• Current HPI: 194.3857
• Rent YoY: ▲ 11.12%
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-10.2% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-26 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-28 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $265,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $264,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-04 Price Changed $265,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-26 Price Changed $269,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-04 Price Changed $275,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-09 Price Changed $287,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-16 Listed $295,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1875.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,817 · +1875.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.