445 Bryson Cir · Hahira, GA 31632

$249,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,426 sqft · Other · 24 Days on market

Built 2026 7,405 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.6/30.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0

Listing remarks

Brand New 3 bed/ bath house in the CITY OF HAHIRA! Home features custom cabinetry in the kitchen and baths, trey ceilings, large walk in master closet, ALL LVP FLOORING, and a 2 car garage. Enjoy the peacefulness of woods behind the home while sitting on the large covered back porch! Home is almost finished and more pictures will be posted soon!

Key facts

• Custom cabinetry
• 7,405 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• CUSTOM CABINETRY
• LARGE COVERED BACK PORCH

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding; House construction
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave
• Flooring: Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Microwave
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-407 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $191k (23.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $167k (33.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $167k (33.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#161 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+, health & safety D.
• Lowndes County (rural): math 59% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #8 of 174 in GA (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Hahira Elementary School (math 72% / reading 55%, grade B, #99 of 1,228 statewide, top 8%, 807 students, 40% FRL); Hahira Middle School (math 65% / reading 63%, grade B+, #30 of 470 statewide, top 6%, 859 students, 32% FRL); Lowndes High School (math 69% / reading 51%, grade C+, #14 of 424 statewide, top 3%, 3,201 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools at 37% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 198 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 896 units permitted in Lowndes County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lowndes County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 24 days — a 2% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $167,046 (33.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.34%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.99%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.57×
• Total profit: $110,184
• Equity at exit: $225,130

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.93×
• Total profit: $344,925
• Equity at exit: $485,501

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31632

• Home prices YoY: 8.1%
• Active inventory: 198
• Price-to-rent: 12.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,670 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$312 /mo · $3,748/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$351
• Net cashflow: $-407

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,186

Max offer price $190,957

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-235	-5% $-321	+0% $-407	+5% $-494	+10% $-580
Rent	-10% $-539	-5% $-473	+0% $-407	+5% $-341	+10% $-275
Rate	-1.0pp $-281	-0.5pp $-344	base $-407	+0.5pp $-472	+1.0pp $-538

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
305 Barfield St Hahira, GA	3.0	2.0	1361	$1,495	$1.10	45d	1	0.41mi
302 Lee St Hahira, GA	3.0	2.0	950	$1,095	$1.15	23d	1	0.68mi
310 Elizabeth St Hahira, GA	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,195	$1.00	45d	1	0.70mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $249,900 Active 24 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $249,900 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,900 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,900 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,900 Active 19 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,900 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $249,900 Active 16 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,900 Active 15 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $249,900 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $249,900 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $249,900 Active 11 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $249,900 Active 10 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $249,900 Active 7 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,900 Active 6 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,900 Active 5 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,900 Active 4 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,900 Active 3 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $249,900 Active 2 DOM
19. 2026-05-28
    listed $249,900 Active
20. 2005-03-24
    soldstatus $247,500
21. 2005-03-24
    soldstatus $1,687,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 13 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,046
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$3,748
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,604
• − Management: −$1,604
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$9,428
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,263
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,625/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lowndes County
• NCES district ID: 1303390
• Math proficiency: 59% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,221
• Composite: 47.21/100
• National rank: #2317
• State rank: #8 of 174 in GA

Livability — Hahira

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #161
• US rank: #10280

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hahira, GA
• County: Lowndes County · 107,801 people
• Metro: Valdosta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 15,942
• Household income: $83,946
• Rent vs Own: 16.9% rent · 83.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 73.0

Population outlook (Lowndes County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 120,348 people
• By 2030: 123,469 · +2.6%
• By 2040: 128,482 · +6.8%
• By 2050: 131,907 · +9.6%
• By 2075: 139,080 · +15.6%
• By 2100: 133,649 · +11.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Black 12% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Lowndes

• 2024 margin: R (+18.0) · D 40.8% · R 58.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.6pp toward R · 2008: -9.4pp · 2024: -18.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.0 2020: R+12.0 2016: R+18.2 2012: R+10.5 2008: R+9.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 19.44%
• Current HPI: 259.01
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Valdosta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+1.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $249,900 SGMLS
• 2005-03-24 Sold (Public Records) $1,687,500 Public Records
• 2005-03-24 Sold (Public Records) $247,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $256 · -2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.