115 Overlook Ct · Junction City, KY 40422

$172,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,170 sqft · Other public records · 86 Days on market

0.33 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This welcoming 3-bedroom, 1-bath ranch offers comfortable one-level living in a peaceful setting! This home features a spacious eat-in kitchen perfect for everyday meals or entertaining, large living room and bedrooms. Roof & Water Heater only 6 years old. Heat is ceiling heat and AC is window units . Step outside to enjoy a large yard with beautiful views. A one-year home warranty is included with an accepted offer, providing added peace of mind. Don't miss this opportunity for country-style living with convenience! Will not qualify for FHA, VA or USDA. Property is a great opportunity for a buyer to do TLC and build equity. Consider renovation financing options including 203K loans.

Key facts

• 0.33 acre lot
• Listed 85 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Parcel number CAS-001-024
• HOA & community: Subdivision: Castle Rock

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Off-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: One-story house
• Construction: Brick veneer construction; Metal roof; Block foundation; Built area approximately 1,170
• Exterior features: Chain link fencing; Neighborhood and farm views

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Range
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 6
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Ceiling heating; Window unit cooling
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Primary bedroom on the first floor; Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $172k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $58 ($698/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $138k (20.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $138k (20.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 2.2% in Junction City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#344 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Boyle County (town): math 49% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #7 of 165 in KY (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Junction City Elementary School (math 37% / reading 47%, grade F, #178 of 676 statewide, top 29%, 420 students, 63% FRL); Boyle County Middle School (math 52% / reading 58%, grade B-, #9 of 217 statewide, top 5%, 679 students, 50% FRL); Boyle County High School (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #13 of 254 statewide, top 5%, 884 students, 45% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 38% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 166 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 85 units permitted in Boyle County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Boyle County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($162k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $172k implies a 331% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $137,761 (20.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.45%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-24,327
• Equity at exit: $25,720

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-16,733
• Equity at exit: $14,915

Cash invested: $48,300 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40422

• Home prices YoY: -12.8%
• Active inventory: 166
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,378 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$905
• Tax from tax record: −$54 /mo · $644/yr
• Insurance: −$72
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$289
• Net cashflow: $58

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,304

Max offer price $172,500

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $156	-5% $107	+0% $58	+5% $9	+10% $-39
Rent	-10% $-51	-5% $4	+0% $58	+5% $113	+10% $167
Rate	-1.0pp $145	-0.5pp $102	base $58	+0.5pp $13	+1.0pp $-32

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,125
• Closing costs: $5,175
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4776 Hustonville Rd Danville, KY	3.0	1.0	1136	$1,250	$1.10	45d	1	1.09mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $172,500 Active 86 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $172,500 Active 85 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $172,500 Active 84 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $172,500 Active 83 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $172,500 Active 82 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $172,500 Active 80 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $172,500 Active 79 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $172,500 Active 76 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $172,500 Active 75 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $172,500 Active 74 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $172,500 Active 73 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $172,500 Active 70 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $172,500 Active 69 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $172,500 Active 68 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $172,500 Active 67 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $172,500 Active 66 DOM
17. 2026-03-25
    listed $172,500 Active
18. 2025-09-02
    price $160,000
19. 2025-08-01
    status Active
20. 2025-07-26
    historical Contingent
21. 2025-07-26
    historical
22. 2025-06-04
    price $165,000
23. 2025-06-02
    listed $211,000 Active
24. 1995-02-01
    soldstatus $40,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $644 · $54/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,484 · $124/mo
• Expected delta: +$840/yr (+$70/mo · 130.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,531
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,663
• − Property taxes: −$644
• − Insurance: −$862
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,323
• − Management: −$1,323
• − Depreciation: −$5,018
• Taxable loss: −$2,301
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$552
• After-tax cash flow: $1,250/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Boyle County
• NCES district ID: 2100630
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $48,352
• Composite: 45.09/100
• National rank: #2692
• State rank: #7 of 165 in KY

Livability — Junction City

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #344
• US rank: #16311

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Junction City, KY
• County: Boyle County · 25,950 people
• Metro: Danville, KY
• Population (ZIP): 25,950
• Household income: $59,615
• Rent vs Own: 36.1% rent · 63.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1047.0

Population outlook (Boyle County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 31,908 people
• By 2030: 32,875 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 34,549 · +8.3%
• By 2050: 36,095 · +13.1%
• By 2075: 39,800 · +24.7%
• By 2100: 40,157 · +25.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Black 9% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Boyle

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.0) · D 34.7% · R 63.7% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.8pp toward R · 2008: -23.2pp · 2024: -29.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.0 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+29.1 2012: R+26.1 2008: R+23.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -38.55%
• Current HPI: 262.516
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Danville, KY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+331.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-25 Listed $172,500 ImagineMLS
• 2025-09-02 Price Changed $160,000 ImagineMLS
• 2025-08-01 Relisted — ImagineMLS
• 2025-07-26 Contingent — ImagineMLS
• 2025-07-26 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2025-06-04 Price Changed $165,000 ImagineMLS
• 2025-06-02 Listed $211,000 ImagineMLS
• 1995-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records