1266 Dave Creek Pkwy · Fairfield Bay, AR 72088

$174,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,146 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 102 Days on market

Built 1987 0.33 ac lot $153/sqft · at area comps Est $171k · at est. $218/mo HOA · 11% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.8/30.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• ARV discount +6.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Appreciation +4.8/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

A RARE FIND, a modestly priced 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom home with a BOAT SLIP in HAMILTON COVE. The dock is in the process of renovations and will be immensely improved. The assessment is PAID! With some updating, this would be a phenomenal property or if you prefer, this furnished lake home is move in ready. The home has an impressive stone fireplace & hearth, large living room, spacious, fenced backyard, generous closet space, inviting front porch, and a convenient garage. Located on a 1/3-acre lot, this property offers privacy, convenience and the Hamilton Cove dock & pool are right around the corner. Located in the picturesque, resort community of Fairfield Bay, AR, this is truly an unpolished diamond waiting on you to make it shine. Area amenities include two golf courses, three pools, ATV trails, hiking/biking trails. pickle & tennis courts, full-service marina, bowling alley, mini golf, multiple dining options, live music & entertainment venues and located on the pristine shores of Greers Ferry Lake. This is YOUR opportunity to live your best life. Agents see remarks regarding the boat slip and the year the home was built.

Key facts

• Front porch
• 1/3-acre lot
• Full service marina

Tags

• BOAT SLIP
• FENCED BACKYARD
• STONE FIREPLACE
• FRONT PORCH
• 1/3-ACRE LOT
• FULL SERVICE MARINA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $303 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $159k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 5.3% in Fairfield Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#220 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Shirley School District (rural): math 44% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #132 of 245 in AR (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 259 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 16 units permitted in Van Buren County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $376 of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-833 appreciation (-0.5% local appreciation)).
• Van Buren County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-0.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 102 days — a 9% lower offer ($159k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $175k implies a 133% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $159,159 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 102 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.43%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $171,249
• List price: $174,900
• Delta: 2.13%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 18 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.48% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.21×
• Total profit: $10,384
• Equity at exit: $46,659

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.08×
• Total profit: $52,852
• Equity at exit: $52,891

Cash invested: $48,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72088

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 259
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$917
• Tax from tax record: −$69 /mo · $826/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$218
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $303

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,616

Max offer price $174,900

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,725
• Closing costs: $5,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
106 Set Ct Fairfield Bay, AR	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,000	$1.54	44d	1	1.38mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $218 · $2,616/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $174,900 Active 102 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   statusdays on market $174,900 Active 101 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $174,900 Back on Market 100 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $174,900 Back on Market 99 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $174,900 Back on Market 98 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $174,900 Back on Market 96 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   statusdays on market $174,900 Back on Market 95 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $174,900 Take Backups 92 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $174,900 Take Backups 91 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $174,900 Take Backups 90 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $174,900 Take Backups 89 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $174,900 Take Backups 86 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $174,900 Take Backups 85 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $174,900 Take Backups 84 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $174,900 Take Backups 83 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $174,900 Take Backups 82 DOM
17. 2026-03-09
    listed $174,900 New Listing 1169-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1169 chars)

    A RARE FIND, a modestly priced 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom home with a BOAT SLIP in HAMILTON COVE. The dock is in the process of renovations and will be immensely improved. The assessment is PAID! With some updating, this would be a phenomenal property or if you prefer, this furnished lake home is move in ready. The home has an impressive stone fireplace & hearth, large living room, spacious, fenced backyard, generous closet space, inviting front porch, and a convenient garage. Located on a 1/3-acre lot, this property offers privacy, convenience and the Hamilton Cove dock & pool are right around the corner. Located in the picturesque, resort community of Fairfield Bay, AR, this is truly an unpolished diamond waiting on you to make it shine. Area amenities include two golf courses, three pools, ATV trails, hiking/biking trails. pickle & tennis courts, full-service marina, bowling alley, mini golf, multiple dining options, live music & entertainment venues and located on the pristine shores of Greers Ferry Lake. This is YOUR opportunity to live your best life. Agents see remarks regarding the boat slip and the year the home was built.

18. 2007-06-15
    soldstatus $75,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $826 · $69/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,119 · $93/mo
• Expected delta: +$294/yr (+$24/mo · 35.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,797
• − Property taxes: −$826
• − Insurance: −$874
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,920
• − Management: −$1,920
• − HOA: −$2,616
• − Depreciation: −$5,088
• Taxable income: $959
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$230
• After-tax cash flow: $3,408/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shirley School District
• NCES district ID: 0512420
• Math proficiency: 44% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $36,296
• Composite: 37.98/100
• National rank: #8669
• State rank: #132 of 245 in AR

Livability — Fairfield Bay

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #220
• US rank: #16778

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fairfield Bay, AR
• City population: 2,264
• Population (ZIP): 2,264

Population outlook (Van Buren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 15,459 people
• By 2030: 14,645 · -5.3%
• By 2040: 12,918 · -16.4%
• By 2050: 11,263 · -27.1%
• By 2075: 7,870 · -49.1%
• By 2100: 4,918 · -68.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Iranian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 4% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Van Buren

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.2) · D 18.9% · R 79.0% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.5pp toward R · 2008: -31.7pp · 2024: -60.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.2 2020: R+56.9 2016: R+53.9 2012: R+39.5 2008: R+31.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.48%
• Current HPI: 238.2694
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+133.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-09 Listed $174,900 CARMLS
• 2007-06-15 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $826 · +10.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.