Seabrook Plan · Nolanville, TX 76559

$283,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,873 sqft · SingleFamily · 43 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.3/30.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0

Listing remarks

Introducing the Seabrook floorplan at Wildwood Estates in Nolanville, Texas, where every square foot is put-to-use with sophistication and comfort. You'll be calling the approximately 1,873 square foot, single-story, 2-car garage, and covered patio your new home. The 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom floorplan is perfect for you with the open concept living area. The kitchen, dining area, and living area creates a spacious environment. You'll find flat panel birch cabinetry and granite countertops. The kitchen includes a breakfast bar and an island with a built-in sink. The secondary bedrooms are cozy and carpeted, with plenty of closet space. The laundry room and a secondary bathroom are perfectly pla

Key facts

• Granite countertops
• Seabrook floorplan
• Breakfast bar

Tags

• SEABROOK FLOORPLAN
• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• FLAT PANEL BIRCH CABINETRY
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• BREAKFAST BAR
• ISLAND WITH BUILT-IN SINK

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: Nolanville, TX (202 Morgans Cir)
• Financial info: List price $283,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family plan (Seabrook)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,873

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: New construction plan (Seabrook)

🏗️ New construction. The $283,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $327,373.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $284k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-577 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $244k (14.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $213k (24.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $213k (24.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.2% vs local median 3.5% in Nolanville — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#176 in TX, #4,655 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Killeen ISD (urban): math 31% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #524 of 826 in TX (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Richard E Cavazos El (math 43% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,155 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 607 students, 66% FRL); Rancier Middle (math 24% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,258 of 1,662 statewide, top 77%, 722 students, 81% FRL); Killeen H S (math 29% / reading 40%, grade F, #963 of 1,632 statewide, top 61%, 2,076 students, 69% FRL) — zoned schools average 72% FRL vs 47% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 239 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,222 units permitted in Bell County in 2024 (246 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $121 appreciation (0.0% local appreciation)).
• Bell County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($275k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 69% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $213,403 (24.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.55%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 12.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $327,373
• List price: $283,990
• Delta: -13.25%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
204 Sugar Maple Ct	0.24mi	4/2.0	1,978 (+6%)	6mo	$315,000	$159	75
905 N 1st St	0.66mi	4/2.0	1,921 (+3%)	4mo	$453,000	$236	62
106 Black Gum Ct	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,656 (-12%)	7mo	$250,000	$151	54
810 Freedom Cir	0.41mi	4/2.0	1,974 (+5%)	21mo	$325,000	$165	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.04% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-45,692
• Equity at exit: $95,667

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-43,344
• Equity at exit: $115,482

Cash invested: $91,664 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76559

• Home prices YoY: 0.0%
• Active inventory: 239
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,134 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,717
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$409 /mo · $4,911/yr
• Insurance: −$136
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$448
• Net cashflow: $-577

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,864

Max offer price $243,950

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-350	-5% $-463	+0% $-577	+5% $-690	+10% $-803
Rent	-10% $-745	-5% $-661	+0% $-577	+5% $-492	+10% $-408
Rate	-1.0pp $-412	-0.5pp $-493	base $-577	+0.5pp $-661	+1.0pp $-748

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,843
• Closing costs: $9,821
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
217 Slippery Elm Dr Nolanville, TX	4.0	2.5	2076	$2,250	$1.08	15d	1	0.21mi
854 Freedom Cir Nolanville, TX	4.0	3.0	2012	$1,901	$0.94	45d	1	0.39mi
810 Freedom Cir Nolanville, TX	4.0	2.0	1974	$3,895	$1.97	15d	1	0.40mi
870 Freedom Cir Nolanville, TX	4.0	3.0	2191	$2,223	$1.01	23d	1	0.40mi
853 Freedom Cir Nolanville, TX	4.0	3.0	2012	$2,073	$1.03	15d	1	0.43mi
605 Old Glory Rd Nolanville, TX	4.0	3.0	2012	$2,073	$1.03	25d	1	0.43mi
408 W St John Ave Apt A Nolanville, TX	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,100	$0.88	45d	1	0.47mi
202 East Avenue H Unit H Nolanville, TX	3.0	2.0	1384	$1,550	$1.12	25d	1	0.88mi
310 10th St Unit B Nolanville, TX	3.0	2.0	1281	$1,095	$0.85	45d	1	1.04mi
406 Diana Ln Harker Heights, TX	4.0	2.0	1617	$1,600	$0.99	45d	1	1.09mi
308 Cedar Ridge Dr Unit A Nolanville, TX	3.0	2.0	2562	$1,050	$0.41	15d	1	1.09mi
1602 Old Nolanville Rd Unit B Nolanville, TX	3.0	2.0	1276	$1,350	$1.06	25d	1	1.17mi
1806 Iron Jacket Trl Harker Heights, TX	4.0	2.0	2178	$2,345	$1.08	25d	1	1.21mi
1804 Iron Jacket Trl Harker Heights, TX	4.0	3.0	2587	$2,395	$0.93	45d	1	1.21mi
2003 Renea Cir Harker Heights, TX	5.0	2.5	1985	$2,200	$1.11	25d	1	1.25mi
1805 Diana Ln Harker Heights, TX	4.0	2.0	1732	$1,595	$0.92	45d	1	1.28mi
7026 Chimney Hill Dr Nolanville, TX	4.0	2.5	2041	$2,200	$1.08	25d	1	1.29mi
106 Cedar Ridge Dr Nolanville, TX	4.0	2.0	1807	$1,695	$0.94	15d	1	1.30mi
707 End O Trl Harker Heights, TX	3.0	2.0	1508	$1,850	$1.23	15d	1	1.34mi
1901 Horatio St Nolanville, TX	3.0	2.0	1945	$2,050	$1.05	25d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $283,990 Active 43 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $283,990 Active 40 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $283,990 Active 39 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $283,990 Active 38 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $283,990 Active 37 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $283,990 Active 35 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $283,990 Active 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $283,990 Active 32 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $283,990 Active 31 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $283,990 Active 30 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $283,990 Active 29 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $283,990 Active 25 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $283,990 Active 24 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $283,990 Active 23 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $283,990 Active 22 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $283,990 Active 21 DOM
17. 2026-05-09
    listed $283,990 Active 1072-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 69% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,608
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,338
• − Property taxes: −$4,911
• − Insurance: −$1,637
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,049
• − Management: −$2,049
• − Depreciation: −$9,524
• Taxable loss: −$12,898
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,096
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,823/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

The home is in good condition with minor cosmetic updates needed to enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Replace the carpet in the secondary bedrooms — Modern flooring can significantly improve the home's resale and rental value.
• Resale Install new kitchen backsplash — A new backsplash can modernize the kitchen and add value.
• Resale Install new bathroom fixtures — Upgraded fixtures can enhance the bathrooms and add value.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and add value to the property.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint the interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Replace the carpet in the secondary bedrooms — Modern flooring can significantly improve the home's resale and rental value. ↑
• Resale Install new kitchen backsplash — A new backsplash can modernize the kitchen and add value. ↑
• Resale Install new bathroom fixtures — Upgraded fixtures can enhance the bathrooms and add value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and add value to the property. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Killeen ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825660
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $47,665
• Composite: 29.69/100
• National rank: #6458
• State rank: #524 of 826 in TX

Livability — Nolanville

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #176
• US rank: #4655

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Nolanville, TX
• City population: 6,896
• Population (ZIP): 6,896

Population outlook (Bell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 371,114 people
• By 2030: 389,104 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 420,592 · +13.3%
• By 2050: 447,779 · +20.7%
• By 2075: 499,130 · +34.5%
• By 2100: 505,680 · +36.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 20% Black 20% Two or more races 6% Asian 5% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 1% Danish 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bell

• 2024 margin: R (+16.2) · D 41.3% · R 57.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: -9.8pp · 2024: -16.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.2 2020: R+8.5 2016: R+15.1 2012: R+16.4 2008: R+9.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▬ 0.04%
• Current HPI: 170.1375
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B