17003 Blairwood Dr · Sheldon, TX 77049

$199,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,340 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 81 Days on market

Built 1970 5,937 sqft lot $149/sqft · 16% above area Est $173k · 16% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• Appreciation +4.4/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0
• ARV discount +0.4/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

A true diamond in the rough, this cottage home boasts a spacious covered carport that accommodates 2-4 vehicles w/ease. Step inside to find an inviting formal dining rm. that doubles as a cozy office/study. The completely remodeled kitchen is a chef’s delight, featuring elegant granite countertops, decorative backsplash & custom cabinetry—no prefab here! Picture yourself enjoying morning coffee through the quaint kitchen window overlooking the charming front yard. This delightful home offers 3 bdrms. w/primary bdrm. conveniently equipped w/half bath for added privacy. You’ll appreciate the inside utility room, providing ample space for an add'l. freezer & all your storage needs. The garage has been converted into a 4th bdrm. w/huge closet. ALL NEW WINDOWS BY WINDOW WORLD W/LIFETIME WARRANTY. Step outside to a completely fenced backyard that’s brimming w/potential. Enjoy the beauty of the rose bushes & fig trees while taking advantage of the add'l. storage bldg. that stays.

Key facts

• Custom cabinetry
• Formal dining room
• Covered carport

Tags

• COVERED CARPORT
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• REMODELED KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• DECORATIVE BACKSPLASH
• CUSTOM CABINETRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $20 ($241/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $173k (13.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $173k (13.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.2% in Sheldon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#605 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Sheldon ISD (suburban): math 19% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #746 of 826 in TX (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.3%/yr); 157 active listings in the ZIP; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.2%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $172,523 (13.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.43%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $172,740
• List price: $199,900
• Delta: 15.72%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17110 Woodburn Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,408 (+5%)	8mo	$200,000	$142	76
17227 Sunshine St	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,362 (+2%)	10mo	$199,000	$146	75
17215 Woodburn Dr	0.21mi	3/1.5	1,440 (+8%)	3mo	$199,900	$139	75
17119 Sunshine St	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,297 (-3%)	15mo	$194,999	$150	75
16923 Sunshine St	0.05mi	3/1.5	1,238 (-8%)	14mo	$204,987	$166	73
17114 Sunshine St	0.13mi	3/1.5	1,238 (-8%)	10mo	$189,823	$153	73
17103 Sunshine St	0.09mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,272 (-5%)	14mo	$165,500	$130	70
17111 Folsom Dr	0.11mi	3/1.5	1,200 (-10%)	11mo	$195,000	$163	68
17114 Hall Shepperd Rd	0.31mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,308 (-2%)	10mo	$39,900	$31	68
17103 Woodburn Dr	0.13mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,511 (+13%)	8mo	$225,000	$149	57
16919 Faring Rd	0.17mi	3/1.5	1,198 (-11%)	21mo	$149,999	$125	57
16907 Argyle Rd	0.28mi	3/1.0	1,206 (-10%)	16mo	$123,000	$102	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.2% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-20,660
• Equity at exit: $46,302

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-21,464
• Equity at exit: $46,977

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77049

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: -3.3%
• Active inventory: 157
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,725 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$211 /mo · $2,535/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$362
• Net cashflow: $20

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,700

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $133	-5% $77	+0% $20	+5% $-36	+10% $-93
Rent	-10% $-116	-5% $-48	+0% $20	+5% $88	+10% $156
Rate	-1.0pp $121	-0.5pp $71	base $20	+0.5pp $-32	+1.0pp $-84

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,900 Active 81 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,900 Active 80 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,900 Active 79 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 Active 78 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 76 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,900 Active 72 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,900 Active 71 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,900 Active 70 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $199,900 Active 67 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,900 Active 66 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,900 Active 65 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,900 Active 64 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,900 Active 63 DOM
14. 2026-04-19
    price $199,900 1023-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1023 chars)

    A true diamond in the rough, this cottage home boasts a spacious covered carport that accommodates 2-4 vehicles w/ease. Step inside to find an inviting formal dining rm. that doubles as a cozy office/study. The completely remodeled kitchen is a chef’s delight, featuring elegant granite countertops, decorative backsplash & custom cabinetry—no prefab here! Picture yourself enjoying morning coffee through the quaint kitchen window overlooking the charming front yard. This delightful home offers 3 bdrms. w/primary bdrm. conveniently equipped w/half bath for added privacy. You’ll appreciate the inside utility room, providing ample space for an add'l. freezer & all your storage needs. The garage has been converted into a 4th bdrm. w/huge closet. ALL NEW WINDOWS BY WINDOW WORLD W/LIFETIME WARRANTY. Step outside to a completely fenced backyard that’s brimming w/potential. Enjoy the beauty of the rose bushes & fig trees while taking advantage of the add'l. storage bldg. that stays.

15. 2026-03-29
    listed $209,900 Active 1023-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1023 chars)

    A true diamond in the rough, this cottage home boasts a spacious covered carport that accommodates 2-4 vehicles w/ease. Step inside to find an inviting formal dining rm. that doubles as a cozy office/study. The completely remodeled kitchen is a chef’s delight, featuring elegant granite countertops, decorative backsplash & custom cabinetry—no prefab here! Picture yourself enjoying morning coffee through the quaint kitchen window overlooking the charming front yard. This delightful home offers 3 bdrms. w/primary bdrm. conveniently equipped w/half bath for added privacy. You’ll appreciate the inside utility room, providing ample space for an add'l. freezer & all your storage needs. The garage has been converted into a 4th bdrm. w/huge closet. ALL NEW WINDOWS BY WINDOW WORLD W/LIFETIME WARRANTY. Step outside to a completely fenced backyard that’s brimming w/potential. Enjoy the beauty of the rose bushes & fig trees while taking advantage of the add'l. storage bldg. that stays.

16. 2010-07-02
    historical
17. 2010-04-02
    listed $83,000
18. 2009-09-03
    historical
19. 2009-03-02
    listed $83,000
20. 2008-08-31
    historical
21. 2008-02-22
    listed $87,000
22. 2004-05-11
    historical
23. 2004-01-05
    listed $66,900
24. 1988-01-02
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,535 · $211/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,658 · $305/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,123/yr (+$94/mo · 44.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 70% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,703
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$2,535
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,656
• − Management: −$1,656
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$3,157
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$758
• After-tax cash flow: $999/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sheldon ISD
• NCES district ID: 4839990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $49,443
• Composite: 19.5/100
• National rank: #8772
• State rank: #746 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sheldon

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #605
• US rank: #11469

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sheldon, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 40,418
• Household income: $62,971
• Rent vs Own: 32.1% rent · 67.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 993.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 66% Two or more races 32% Black 19% White 10% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 55%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 43% English-only · Spanish 54% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.20%
• Current HPI: 248.1111
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.31%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+198.8% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-19 Price Changed $199,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-29 Listed $209,900 HARMLS
• 2010-07-02 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2010-04-02 Listed $83,000 HARMLS
• 2009-09-03 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2009-03-02 Listed $83,000 HARMLS
• 2008-08-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2008-02-22 Listed $87,000 HARMLS
• 2004-05-11 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2004-01-05 Listed $66,900 HARMLS
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,535 · +9.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.