423 Dalloway St · Conroe, TX 77316

$299,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,609 sqft · Land · 45 Days on market

Built 2024 9,452 sqft lot $115/sqft · at area comps Est $305k · at est. $54/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.1/30.0
• ARV discount +8.4/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Step into this beautifully maintained 2,609 sq. ft. two-story home that feels nearly brand new. Lovingly cared for by a single owner, this 5-bedroom, 3-bathroom residence offers the perfect blend of modern design and everyday comfort. The main floor features an open-concept layout with a spacious living area flowing seamlessly into a sleek, contemporary kitchen—ideal for both entertaining and daily living. A conveniently located downstairs bedroom and full bath provide flexibility for guests, multi-generational living, or a home office. Upstairs, the private primary suite offers a quiet retreat with a spacious en-suite bath and large walk-in closet. Three additional bedrooms complete

Key facts

• 9,452 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2024

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community managed by Sterling Association Services; Annual association fee of $650

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2024; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Brick, cement siding, and wood siding exterior
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Fenced backyard; Subdivision setting

Interior

• Kitchen: Convection oven; Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on second floor; Three additional bedrooms on second floor; One bedroom on first floor
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Granite counters; Kitchen island; Open kitchen/family room layout; Pantry
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $151 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $251k (16.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $251k (16.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F, health & safety F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Gordon-Reed El (586 students, 47% FRL); Conroe H S (math 32% / reading 51%, grade F, #767 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 4,915 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 54% FRL vs 34% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 42% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 2283 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($290k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $250,607 (16.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.17%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $305,165
• List price: $299,000
• Delta: -2.02%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-45,310
• Equity at exit: $44,582

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-52,374
• Equity at exit: $25,852

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77316

• Home prices YoY: -10.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 2283
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,506 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax from tax record: −$82 /mo · $982/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$54
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$526
• Net cashflow: $151

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,314

Max offer price $299,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $321	-5% $236	+0% $151	+5% $67	+10% $-18
Rent	-10% $-47	-5% $52	+0% $151	+5% $250	+10% $349
Rate	-1.0pp $302	-0.5pp $227	base $151	+0.5pp $74	+1.0pp $-5

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15242 Abella Dr Montgomery, TX	4.0	2.5	1881	$1,780	$0.95	5d	1	0.25mi
632 Levine Ct Montgomery, TX	4.0	2.5	2239	$2,275	$1.02	7d	1	0.32mi
702 Crystal River Rd Montgomery, TX	4.0	2.5	1820	$4,000	$2.20	44d	1	0.87mi
28752 Aloha Ln Montgomery, TX	4.0	2.0	1761	$1,986	$1.13	25d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $54 · $648/yr

Listing history 37 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,000 Active 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,000 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,000 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,000 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,000 Active 40 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,000 Active 36 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,000 Active 35 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $299,000 Active 34 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $299,000 Active 31 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,000 Active 30 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,000 Active 29 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,000 Active 28 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,000 Active 27 DOM
14. 2026-05-04
    listed $299,000 Active 893-char remark
15. 2026-02-02
    historical
16. 2025-12-26
    status Active
17. 2025-12-13
    historical
18. 2025-12-12
    listed $284,999 Active
19. 2025-12-04
    historical
20. 2025-11-28
    status Active
21. 2025-11-27
    historical
22. 2025-10-29
    price $284,999
23. 2025-10-21
    price $279,999
24. 2025-10-14
    price $284,999
25. 2025-10-03
    price $299,999
26. 2025-09-17
    listed $304,999 Active
27. 2025-08-31
    historical
28. 2025-04-17
    listed $299,000 Active
29. 2025-01-24
    soldstatus Sold
30. 2025-01-21
    status Pending
31. 2025-01-15
    price $300,000
32. 2025-01-01
    status Active
33. 2024-12-27
    status Pending
34. 2024-12-18
    price $309,990
35. 2024-10-31
    price $318,240
36. 2024-10-11
    price $312,740
37. 2024-10-09
    listed $330,240 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $982 · $82/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,472 · $456/mo
• Expected delta: +$4,489/yr (+$374/mo · 456.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,073
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$982
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,406
• − Management: −$2,406
• − HOA: −$648
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable loss: −$3,311
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$795
• After-tax cash flow: $2,611/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Conroe, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,694
• Household income: $124,055
• Rent vs Own: 10.9% rent · 89.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 273.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.44%
• Current HPI: 262.6973
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.40%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-9.5% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Listed $299,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-02 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-12-26 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-12-13 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-12-12 Listed $284,999 HARMLS
• 2025-12-04 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-11-28 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-11-27 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-29 Price Changed $284,999 HARMLS
• 2025-10-21 Price Changed $279,999 HARMLS
• 2025-10-14 Price Changed $284,999 HARMLS
• 2025-10-03 Price Changed $299,999 HARMLS
• 2025-09-17 Listed $304,999 HARMLS
• 2025-08-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-04-17 Listed $299,000 HARMLS
• 2025-01-24 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2025-01-21 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-01-15 Price Changed $300,000 HARMLS
• 2025-01-01 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2024-12-27 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-12-18 Price Changed $309,990 HARMLS
• 2024-10-31 Price Changed $318,240 HARMLS
• 2024-10-11 Price Changed $312,740 HARMLS
• 2024-10-09 Listed $330,240 HARMLS

Property tax history

-0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $982 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.