201 Arbor Lake Dr #404 · Bonita Springs, FL 34110

$175,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,804 sqft · Condo public records · 35 Days on market

Built 1991 $2539/mo HOA · 51% of rent ↓ 25% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.4/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Arbor Trace is an active adult community with exceptional amenities including the 17th level Top of the Pointe Club overlooking the Bay and Gulf. North Naples campus for Hodges University Lifelong Learning classes. Enjoy the use of all club facilities, fine dining, and transportation. Housekeeping and maintenance optional. On-site assisted living and round-the-clock emergency monitoring for peace of mind.

Key facts

• Fountain view
• Renovated baths
• Lake view

Tags

• LAKE VIEW
• FOUNTAIN VIEW
• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING LAYOUT
• RENOVATED BATHS
• MODERN KITCHEN
• SHAKER CABINETS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Pets allowed conditionally (call); Maximum of 2 pets; Maximum pet weight 30 lbs
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with monthly fee; Association fee includes management, cable TV, internet, irrigation water, grounds maintenance, pest control, recreation facilities, reserve fund, road maintenance, sewer, street lights, trash, and water; Community amenities include bocce court, clubhouse, concierge, fitness center, pool, spa/hot tub, tennis courts, and trails; Community has 211 units; Gated community with elevator and street lights; Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; One covered garage space
• Security: Security gate; Gated community; Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Underground utilities; Municipal irrigation source
• Home design: One-story building; Zero lot line; North exposure; Faces south; Entry level 4; Resale property; Has view; Waterfront on a lake
• Construction: Block, concrete, and stucco construction; Shingle roof; On-site management
• Exterior features: Security/high-impact doors; Automatic sprinklers/irrigation; Electric shutters; Water feature; Lanai; Porch; Screened porch; Community pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Range; Self-cleaning oven; Microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator; Freezer; Pantry
• Bedrooms: Guest quarters
• Flooring: Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric); Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Closet cabinetry; Dual sinks; Entrance foyer; Combined living and dining area; Pantry; Shower-only bathroom; Separate shower; Cable TV ready; Walk-in closet(s); Window treatments; Split bedroom floorplan; Sliding windows; Window coverings; Furnishing negotiable
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Inside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath condo listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $225 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $170k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 1.7% in Bonita Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#428 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: schools C-, cost of living C-, health & safety D.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 595 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $5,010/mo this rent would consume 62% of the median local household income ($98k/yr) (locally 1006% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($170k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; HOA is 51% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $169,750 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.86% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.15%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-27,062
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: -71.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.13×
• Total profit: $-55,219
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34110

• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 595
• Price-to-rent: 2.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,010 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$136 /mo · $1,636/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$2,539
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,052
• Net cashflow: $225

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,725

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1001 Arbor Lake Dr Naples, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1755	$5,500	$3.13	23d	2	0.13mi
306 Emerald Bay Cir Unit J8 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1350	$4,000	$2.96	23d	1	0.24mi
306 Emerald Bay Cir Unit J5 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1490	$5,900	$3.96	23d	1	0.24mi
341 Emerald Bay Cir Unit T5 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1611	$4,500	$2.79	23d	1	0.27mi
505 Lake Louise Cir #101 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1444	$5,500	$3.81	23d	1	0.30mi
386 Emerald Bay Cir Unit G4 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1490	$2,500	$1.68	23d	1	0.30mi
513 Lake Louise Cir #202 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1444	$5,300	$3.67	23d	1	0.31mi
15161 Cedarwood Ln Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1267	$4,000	$3.16	23d	3	0.38mi
15191 Cedarwood Ln #2602 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1267	$2,300	$1.82	23d	1	0.43mi
290 Naples Cove Dr Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1327	$3,400	$2.56	23d	3	0.47mi
14780 Glen Eden Dr Naples, FL	3.0	2.5	2184	$8,000	$3.66	23d	1	0.50mi
270 Naples Cove Dr #3506 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1475	$2,500	$1.69	21d	1	0.51mi
285 Naples Cove Dr #1103 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1267	$2,475	$1.95	23d	1	0.52mi
526 Lake Louise Cir Unit 4-403 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1740	$6,500	$3.74	23d	1	0.55mi
15415 Cedarwood Ln Unit 3 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1428	$2,200	$1.54	13d	1	0.57mi
15400 Cedarwood Ln Unit 1-201 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1286	$6,000	$4.67	23d	1	0.59mi
15400 Cedarwood Ln #102 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1286	$6,300	$4.90	13d	1	0.59mi
340 Horse Creek Dr #304 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1326	$2,950	$2.22	23d	1	0.71mi
360 Horse Creek Dr Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1589	$5,250	$3.30	13d	4	0.72mi
320 Horse Creek Dr #105 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1326	$5,600	$4.22	23d	1	0.73mi
300 Horse Creek Dr #408 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1434	$5,500	$3.84	23d	1	0.74mi
480 Bermuda Cove Way Unit 1-104 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1372	$4,250	$3.10	23d	1	0.81mi
13105 Vanderbilt Dr Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1390	$5,450	$3.92	23d	2	0.86mi
13105 Vanderbilt Dr #808 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1390	$5,500	$3.96	21d	1	0.86mi
13105 Vanderbilt Dr #808 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1390	$5,500	$3.96	13d	1	0.86mi
817 Carrick Bend Cir #101 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1660	$5,995	$3.61	13d	1	0.87mi
430 Cove Tower Dr #302 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1623	$6,500	$4.00	23d	1	0.91mi
430 Cove Tower Dr #1202 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1519	$7,800	$5.13	23d	1	0.91mi
420 Cove Tower Dr #802 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1621	$4,750	$2.93	23d	1	0.92mi
425 Cove Tower Dr #902 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1854	$9,400	$5.07	23d	1	0.95mi
12945 Vanderbilt Dr Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1301	$5,250	$4.04	23d	2	0.95mi
784 Carrick Bend Cir #101 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1515	$3,500	$2.31	23d	1	0.96mi
774 Wiggins Lake Dr #106 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1374	$6,500	$4.73	23d	1	1.01mi
945 Carrick Bend Cir #201 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	2360	$2,995	$1.27	13d	1	1.02mi
651 Wiggins Lake Dr #102 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1487	$6,500	$4.37	23d	1	1.02mi
437 Wiggins Lake Ct #201 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1283	$4,500	$3.51	23d	1	1.07mi
1025 Tarpon Cove Dr #203 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1225	$5,500	$4.49	13d	1	1.10mi
757 Wiggins Lake Dr #106 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1374	$6,000	$4.37	13d	1	1.12mi
757 Wiggins Lake Dr #106 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1374	$6,000	$4.37	23d	1	1.12mi
752 Wiggins Lake Dr #102 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1402	$2,375	$1.69	21d	1	1.14mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $2,539 · $30,468/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $175,000 Active 30 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $175,000 Active 27 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,000 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $175,000 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $175,000 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $175,000 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $175,000 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $200,000 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    remarks 695-char remark
14. 2026-05-31
    listed $200,000 Active 17 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,636 · $136/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,636 · $136/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 97% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $60,118
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$1,636
• − Insurance: −$1,672
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,809
• − Management: −$4,809
• − HOA: −$30,468
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable income: $1,829
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$439
• After-tax cash flow: $2,265/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bonita Springs

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #428
• US rank: #7576

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• City population: 64,727
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 25,630
• Household income: $97,564
• Rent vs Own: 23.2% rent · 76.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1006.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 9% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -172.68%
• Current HPI: 267.4644
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.06%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-24.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Listed $200,000 FORTMLS
• 2014-06-10 Sold (Public Records) $240,000 Public Records
• 2014-06-06 Sold (MLS) $240,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2014-04-10 Listed $265,000 NAPLESMLS

Property tax history

-1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,636 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.