31 3rd St · Lake Ronkonkoma, NY 11779

$419,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 768 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 36 Days on market

Built 1962 3,920 sqft lot $546/sqft · at area comps Est $640k · 35% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.9/30.0
• Schools +6.6/10.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

4 Bedrooms 1 Full Bath, Crawl Space for Basement.

Key facts

• 3,920 sq ft lot
• Built 1962
• Listed 36 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Cesspool sewer; Cable available; Electricity available
• Home design: Single family residence
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Frame construction; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Bedroom on the first floor
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Hot water heating; Oil heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; 7 total rooms; Scuttle attic; Crawl space basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $419k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $122 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $381k (9.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $381k (9.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.0% in Lake Ronkonkoma — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#169 in NY, #2,606 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety B; Watch: amenities D-, cost of living F.
• Sachem Central School District (suburban): math 69% / reading 76% proficiency, ranked #86 of 590 in NY (top 15%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Wenonah School (math 62% / reading 72%, grade B+, #525 of 2,108 statewide, top 27%, 479 students, 24% FRL); Samoset Middle School (math 51% / reading 63%, grade B, #192 of 729 statewide, top 28%, 892 students, 31% FRL); Sachem High School North (math 96% / reading 95%, grade A+, #76 of 1,100 statewide, top 7%, 1,923 students, 25% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 173 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($112k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($406k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 72% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $380,573 (9.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.24%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $639,810
• List price: $419,000
• Delta: -34.51%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
34 Weichers Ave	0.56mi	3/1.0 (-1)	751 (-2%)	12mo	$380,000	$506	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.79% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-68,383
• Equity at exit: $62,474

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-81,875
• Equity at exit: $36,227

Cash invested: $117,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11779

• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 173
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,806 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,197
• Tax from tax record: −$513 /mo · $6,157/yr
• Insurance: −$175
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$799
• Net cashflow: $122

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,652

Max offer price $419,000

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $104,750
• Closing costs: $12,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2 Hawkins Ave Lake Ronkonkoma, NY	3.0	1.0–2.0	959	$4,980	$5.19	1d	129	0.39mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $419,000 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $419,000 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $419,000 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $419,000 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $419,000 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $419,000 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $419,000 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $419,000 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $419,000 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $419,000 Active 22 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $419,000 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $419,000 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $419,000 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $419,000 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-05-13
    listed $419,000 Active 49-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,157 · $513/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,619 · $552/mo
• Expected delta: +$462/yr (+$38/mo · 7.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 72% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $45,669
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,471
• − Property taxes: −$6,157
• − Insurance: −$2,095
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,654
• − Management: −$3,654
• − Depreciation: −$12,189
• Taxable loss: −$5,550
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,332
• After-tax cash flow: $2,791/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sachem Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3625350
• Math proficiency: 69% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 76% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $92,968
• Composite: 65.53/100
• National rank: #472
• State rank: #86 of 590 in NY

Livability — Lake Ronkonkoma

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #2606

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute B- Cost of living F Crime C+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Ronkonkoma, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 38,273
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 38,206
• Household income: $112,180
• Rent vs Own: 24.3% rent · 75.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 874.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 9% Asian 7% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 7% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Scotch-Irish 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 7% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -569.98%
• Current HPI: 350.0973
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.79%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Listed $419,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,157 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.