2705 39th St · Lubbock, TX 79413

$95,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,284 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 182 Days on market

Built 1955 7,800 sqft lot $74/sqft · 39% below area Est $155k · 39% under ↓ 30% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.6/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great investment Rented 1000 until July 28, 20263 bedroom 1 bath. 1 car garage. Outside has just been painted!!

Key facts

• 7,800 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1955

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $379 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 183 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 48% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.9% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 182 days — a 12% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $83,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 182 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.11%
• DSCR: 1.76
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $155,067
• List price: $95,000
• Delta: -38.74%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2619 44th St	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,460 (+14%)	13mo	$199,000	$136	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.94% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $7,357
• Equity at exit: $14,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.20×
• Total profit: $31,872
• Equity at exit: $8,214

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79413

• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 183
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,383 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$176 /mo · $2,109/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$290
• Net cashflow: $379

Break-even live

Break-even rent $903

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2712 37th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1136	$1,300	$1.14	43d	1	0.13mi
2616 37th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	950	$1,200	$1.26	21d	1	0.13mi
2521 40th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	902	$1,195	$1.32	21d	1	0.17mi
2609 41st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1469	$1,550	$1.06	21d	1	0.18mi
2605 41st St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	882	$995	$1.13	13d	1	0.19mi
2801 36th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1446	$2,700	$1.87	43d	1	0.20mi
2521 41st St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	990	$925	$0.93	43d	1	0.21mi
2508 37th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.5	1495	$1,700	$1.14	43d	1	0.25mi
2506 37th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1053	$1,550	$1.47	21d	1	0.26mi
2514 42nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	943	$950	$1.01	13d	1	0.27mi
2812 43rd St Unit 6 Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1104	$700	$0.63	43d	1	0.33mi
2812 43rd St Unit 7 Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1104	$750	$0.68	21d	1	0.33mi
2513 43rd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	912	$1,150	$1.26	43d	1	0.33mi
2513 43rd St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	912	$1,150	$1.26	13d	1	0.33mi
2706 44th St Apt C Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$680	$0.76	43d	1	0.33mi
2611 44th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,395	$1.16	43d	1	0.35mi
2607 44th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	988	$1,325	$1.34	43d	1	0.35mi
2403 38th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.5	1786	$1,700	$0.95	43d	1	0.37mi
2815 43rd St Unit 11 Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1085	$800	$0.74	21d	1	0.37mi
2701 44th St Lubbock, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	657	$1,075	$1.64	13d	25	0.37mi
2504 44th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	939	$995	$1.06	43d	1	0.39mi
3108 39th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1504	$1,295	$0.86	21d	1	0.41mi
2823 33rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1105	$950	$0.86	43d	1	0.41mi
3019 42nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1053	$1,250	$1.19	21d	1	0.41mi
2408 35th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1072	$995	$0.93	21d	1	0.42mi
3114 37th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	988	$1,095	$1.11	43d	1	0.46mi
2400 44th St Lubbock, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1015	$1,225	$1.21	13d	23	0.46mi
3114 40th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1488	$1,375	$0.92	43d	1	0.46mi
3126 38th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1248	$1,195	$0.96	43d	1	0.47mi
3019 33rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.5	1573	$1,500	$0.95	13d	1	0.49mi
3007 32nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1353	$1,325	$0.98	21d	1	0.51mi
3101 33rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	3.0	1250	$999	$0.80	43d	1	0.51mi
3006 46th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1047	$995	$0.95	21d	1	0.51mi
2614 31st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1549	$1,650	$1.07	43d	1	0.52mi
3105 44th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1348	$1,375	$1.02	21d	1	0.52mi
2412 46th St Apt A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	945	$795	$0.84	21d	1	0.55mi
2613 30th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1472	$1,500	$1.02	43d	1	0.55mi
2217 36th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1284	$1,109	$0.86	13d	1	0.56mi
2406 46th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	943	$775	$0.82	21d	1	0.56mi
2215 36th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1578	$1,450	$0.92	43d	1	0.57mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,000 Active 182 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,000 Active 181 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $95,000 Active 180 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $95,000 Active 179 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $95,000 Active 177 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $95,000 Active 176 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $95,000 Active 174 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $95,000 Active 173 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $95,000 Active 172 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $95,000 Active 171 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $95,000 Active 168 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $95,000 Active 167 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $95,000 Active 166 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $95,000 Active 165 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $95,000 Active 164 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $95,000 Active 163 DOM
17. 2026-02-03
    price $95,000 113-char remark

    Show marketing remark (113 chars)

    Great investment Rented 1000 until July 28, 20263 bedroom 1 bath. 1 car garage. Outside has just been painted!!

18. 2025-12-18
    listed $100,000 Active 113-char remark

    Show marketing remark (113 chars)

    Great investment Rented 1000 until July 28, 20263 bedroom 1 bath. 1 car garage. Outside has just been painted!!

19. 2024-01-16
    price $131,240
20. 2023-12-12
    price $135,240

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,109 · $176/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,109 · $176/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,599
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$2,109
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,328
• − Management: −$1,328
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $3,274
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$786
• After-tax cash flow: $3,765/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828500
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,820
• Composite: 31.44/100
• National rank: #5984
• State rank: #481 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,343
• Household income: $69,400
• Rent vs Own: 43.9% rent · 56.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1211.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 18% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -145.52%
• Current HPI: 239.8854
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.94%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-29.8% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-03 Price Changed $95,000 LARMLS
• 2025-12-18 Listed $100,000 LARMLS
• 2024-01-16 Price Changed $131,240 LARMLS
• 2023-12-12 Price Changed $135,240 LARMLS

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,109 · -5.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.