11408 Cherry Hill Rd #103 · Calverton, MD 20705

$149,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 552 sqft · Condo public records · 67 Days on market

Built 1966 $270/sqft · 16% below area Est $178k · 16% under $393/mo HOA · 27% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.8/15.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautifully updated 1BR condo unit. Centrally located, modern flooring, newer kitchen, newer appliances, laundry room in building; available today. All Utilities (electric, gas, water) are all included in the moderate condo fee.

Key facts

• $393 HOA
• Built 1966
• Listed 67 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-170 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $119k (20.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $147k (1.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $119k (20.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.6% in Calverton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#203 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, amenities D-.
• Montgomery County Public Schools (suburban): math 27% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #3 of 24 in MD (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 88 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,880 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (2,054 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 16% of the median local income ($110k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($140k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $115k; 30% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 27% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,961 (20.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
6. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
7. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
8. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.92%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.89%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $177,965
• List price: $149,000
• Delta: -16.28%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-39,071
• Equity at exit: $22,216

10-year hold

• IRR: -56.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.53×
• Total profit: $-63,757
• Equity at exit: $12,883

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20705

• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 88
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,468 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax from tax record: −$93 /mo · $1,122/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$393
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$308
• Net cashflow: $-170

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,683

Max offer price $118,961

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11457 Cherry Hill Rd Beltsville, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	959	$1,470	$1.53	18d	10	0.21mi
3598 Powder Mill Rd Beltsville, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	886	$1,445	$1.63	5d	10	0.46mi
12230 Longfield Dr Silver Spring, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1756	$2,020	$1.15	2d	17	1.06mi
11932 Twinlakes Dr Beltsville, MD	3.0	1.0–2.0	866	$1,519	$1.75	1d	52	1.11mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $393 · $4,716/yr
• Likely covers: watergaselectric
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,000 Active 67 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $149,000 Active 66 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 65 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 64 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $150,000 Active 62 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $150,000 Active 58 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $150,000 Active 57 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $150,000 Active 56 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $150,000 Active 52 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $150,000 Active 51 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $150,000 Active 50 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 49 DOM
13. 2026-05-05
    price $150,000 228-char remark

    Show marketing remark (228 chars)

    Beautifully updated 1BR condo unit. Centrally located, modern flooring, newer kitchen, newer appliances, laundry room in building; available today. All Utilities (electric, gas, water) are all included in the moderate condo fee.

14. 2026-04-21
    price $153,000 228-char remark

    Show marketing remark (228 chars)

    Beautifully updated 1BR condo unit. Centrally located, modern flooring, newer kitchen, newer appliances, laundry room in building; available today. All Utilities (electric, gas, water) are all included in the moderate condo fee.

15. 2026-04-12
    listed $155,000 Active 228-char remark

    Show marketing remark (228 chars)

    Beautifully updated 1BR condo unit. Centrally located, modern flooring, newer kitchen, newer appliances, laundry room in building; available today. All Utilities (electric, gas, water) are all included in the moderate condo fee.

16. 2026-01-21
    listed $1,380
17. 2006-02-17
    soldstatus $115,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,122 · $93/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,373 · $114/mo
• Expected delta: +$251/yr (+$21/mo · 22.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 16% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,619
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$1,122
• − Insurance: −$745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,410
• − Management: −$1,410
• − HOA: −$4,716
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable loss: −$4,464
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,071
• After-tax cash flow: $-969/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Montgomery County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400480
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $97,191
• Composite: 35.62/100
• National rank: #4889
• State rank: #3 of 24 in MD

Livability — Calverton

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #203
• US rank: #9708

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living F Crime C Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Calverton, MD
• County: Prince Georges County · 919,866 people
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 28,713
• Household income: $110,351
• Rent vs Own: 33.0% rent · 67.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 455.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,173,231 people
• By 2030: 1,237,402 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 1,365,115 · +16.4%
• By 2050: 1,491,592 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 1,803,893 · +53.8%
• By 2100: 2,035,619 · +73.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 38% Black 36% Asian 12% White 10% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 43% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 47% English-only · Spanish 32% Other Indo-European 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+53.3) · D 75.2% · R 21.9% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +8.7pp toward D · 2008: 44.6pp · 2024: 53.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+53.3 2020: D+59.6 2016: D+55.5 2012: D+43.4 2008: D+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -241.68%
• Current HPI: 309.0138
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.94%
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+30.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $150,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $153,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-12 Listed $155,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-21 Listed for Rent $1,380 BRIGHTMLS
• 2006-02-17 Sold (Public Records) $115,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,122 · +5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.