17525 County Road 48 · Cutchogue, NY 11935

$1,595,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,200 sqft · SingleFamily · 202 Days on market

Built 1905 2.06 ac lot $725/sqft · 26% above area Est $1265k · 26% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.4/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

17525 County Rd. 48 (aka Middle Rd). Currently being used as a "tree farm", large farmhouse w/high ceilings, open living/dining area, craft room, den and office space. First floor full bath, full row of storage closets. Second floor offers large primary bedroom with high ceilings & 2 additional bedrooms, full bath. Inground pool, large patio area, huge accessory building with large overhead door, 2.06 acres (150 x 600) with partial irrigation zoned AC Agriculture Conservation (Residential). Endless possibilities with large outbuilding for the hobby enthusiast, country farmer or one looking for a serene lifestyle amongst the beautiful North Fork surroundings.

Key facts

• 2.06 acre lot
• 4 garage spots
• Pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $1.59M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5k ($62k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($19k rent vs $1.59M).
• Recommended offer: $1.40M (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 7.3% in Cutchogue — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#843 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Mattituck-Cutchogue Union Free School District (suburban): math 69% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #127 of 590 in NY (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 51 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $171k of equity ($11k loan paydown + $160k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $447k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$274k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 202 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.40M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $909k; list at $1.59M implies a 75% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1905 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,403,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 202 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1905 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.91%
• DSCR: 1.62
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,265,234
• List price: $1,595,000
• Delta: 26.06%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1030 Horseshoe Dr	0.30mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,200 (0%)	5mo	$1,275,000	$580	73
18250 County Road 48	0.16mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,000 (-9%)	6mo	$550,000	$275	63
6805 Alvahs Ln	0.24mi	4/4.0 (+1)	2,400 (+9%)	12mo	$1,175,000	$490	51
6580 Oregon Rd	0.72mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,300 (+4%)	5mo	$990,000	$430	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.68×
• Total profit: $1,197,910
• Equity at exit: $1,436,902

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.7%
• Equity multiple: 8.32×
• Total profit: $3,267,655
• Equity at exit: $3,098,734

Cash invested: $446,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11935

• Home prices YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 51
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $19,103 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$8,364
• Tax from tax record: −$887 /mo · $10,642/yr
• Insurance: −$665
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,012
• Net cashflow: $5,175

Break-even live

Break-even rent $12,552

Max offer price $1,595,000

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $6,078	-5% $5,627	+0% $5,175	+5% $4,724	+10% $4,272
Rent	-10% $3,666	-5% $4,421	+0% $5,175	+5% $5,930	+10% $6,684
Rate	-1.0pp $5,979	-0.5pp $5,581	base $5,175	+0.5pp $4,762	+1.0pp $4,342

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $398,750
• Closing costs: $47,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4900 Depot Ln Cutchogue, NY	3.0	1.5	1800	$3,900	$2.17	44d	1	0.45mi
1100 Alvahs Ln Cutchogue, NY	4.0	4.0	2400	$24,200	$10.08	44d	1	0.94mi
530 Stillwater Ave Cutchogue, NY	3.0	2.5	1800	$15,000	$8.33	44d	1	1.34mi
19000 Main Rd Mattituck, NY	4.0	2.5	2000	$15,000	$7.50	44d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $1,595,000 Active 202 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,595,000 Active 200 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,595,000 Active 199 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,595,000 Active 198 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,595,000 Active 197 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,595,000 Active 195 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $1,595,000 Active 194 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,595,000 Active 191 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,595,000 Active 190 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $1,595,000 Active 189 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $1,595,000 Active 185 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,595,000 Active 184 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,595,000 Active 183 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,595,000 Active 182 DOM
15. 2025-12-01
    listed $1,595,000 Active 685-char remark

    Show marketing remark (685 chars)

    17525 County Rd. 48 (aka Middle Rd). Currently being used as a "tree farm", large farmhouse w/high ceilings, open living/dining area, craft room, den and office space. First floor full bath, full row of storage closets. Second floor offers large primary bedroom with high ceilings & 2 additional bedrooms, full bath. Inground pool, large patio area, huge accessory building with large overhead door, 2.06 acres (150 x 600) with partial irrigation zoned AC Agriculture Conservation (Residential). Endless possibilities with large outbuilding for the hobby enthusiast, country farmer or one looking for a serene lifestyle amongst the beautiful North Fork surroundings.

16. 2025-11-18
    historical $1,595,000 685-char remark

    Show marketing remark (685 chars)

    17525 County Rd. 48 (aka Middle Rd). Currently being used as a "tree farm", large farmhouse w/high ceilings, open living/dining area, craft room, den and office space. First floor full bath, full row of storage closets. Second floor offers large primary bedroom with high ceilings & 2 additional bedrooms, full bath. Inground pool, large patio area, huge accessory building with large overhead door, 2.06 acres (150 x 600) with partial irrigation zoned AC Agriculture Conservation (Residential). Endless possibilities with large outbuilding for the hobby enthusiast, country farmer or one looking for a serene lifestyle amongst the beautiful North Fork surroundings.

17. 2025-11-18
    status Active 685-char remark

    Show marketing remark (685 chars)

    17525 County Rd. 48 (aka Middle Rd). Currently being used as a "tree farm", large farmhouse w/high ceilings, open living/dining area, craft room, den and office space. First floor full bath, full row of storage closets. Second floor offers large primary bedroom with high ceilings & 2 additional bedrooms, full bath. Inground pool, large patio area, huge accessory building with large overhead door, 2.06 acres (150 x 600) with partial irrigation zoned AC Agriculture Conservation (Residential). Endless possibilities with large outbuilding for the hobby enthusiast, country farmer or one looking for a serene lifestyle amongst the beautiful North Fork surroundings.

18. 2025-11-18
    historical $1,595,000 685-char remark

    Show marketing remark (685 chars)

    17525 County Rd. 48 (aka Middle Rd). Currently being used as a "tree farm", large farmhouse w/high ceilings, open living/dining area, craft room, den and office space. First floor full bath, full row of storage closets. Second floor offers large primary bedroom with high ceilings & 2 additional bedrooms, full bath. Inground pool, large patio area, huge accessory building with large overhead door, 2.06 acres (150 x 600) with partial irrigation zoned AC Agriculture Conservation (Residential). Endless possibilities with large outbuilding for the hobby enthusiast, country farmer or one looking for a serene lifestyle amongst the beautiful North Fork surroundings.

19. 2024-04-11
    soldstatus $909,000
20. 2024-02-08
    soldstatus $909,000 Closed 699-char remark

    Show marketing remark (699 chars)

    Large Cutchogue farmhouse w/ high ceilings, 1st fl. offers large open living/dining room, huge playroom/craft room, first floor laundry, office space and large separate den with wood burning stove, full bath, wall of closets. Second floor offers large primary bedroom with high ceilings, 2 additional bedrooms and full bath. Inground pool, large patio area, huge approx. 1200 sq. ft. accessory building w/large overhead door, 2.06 acres (150 x 600) zoned AC Agriculture Conservation (Residential). This complete package awaits your personal touches w/large rooms, classic details, endless possibilities w/outbuilding & property., Additional information: Appearance:Great,Interior Features:Lr/Dr

21. 2023-10-11
    status Pending 699-char remark

    Show marketing remark (699 chars)

    Large Cutchogue farmhouse w/ high ceilings, 1st fl. offers large open living/dining room, huge playroom/craft room, first floor laundry, office space and large separate den with wood burning stove, full bath, wall of closets. Second floor offers large primary bedroom with high ceilings, 2 additional bedrooms and full bath. Inground pool, large patio area, huge approx. 1200 sq. ft. accessory building w/large overhead door, 2.06 acres (150 x 600) zoned AC Agriculture Conservation (Residential). This complete package awaits your personal touches w/large rooms, classic details, endless possibilities w/outbuilding & property., Additional information: Appearance:Great,Interior Features:Lr/Dr

22. 2023-09-07
    price $999,999 699-char remark

    Show marketing remark (699 chars)

    Large Cutchogue farmhouse w/ high ceilings, 1st fl. offers large open living/dining room, huge playroom/craft room, first floor laundry, office space and large separate den with wood burning stove, full bath, wall of closets. Second floor offers large primary bedroom with high ceilings, 2 additional bedrooms and full bath. Inground pool, large patio area, huge approx. 1200 sq. ft. accessory building w/large overhead door, 2.06 acres (150 x 600) zoned AC Agriculture Conservation (Residential). This complete package awaits your personal touches w/large rooms, classic details, endless possibilities w/outbuilding & property., Additional information: Appearance:Great,Interior Features:Lr/Dr

23. 2023-07-22
    listed $1,100,000 Active 699-char remark

    Show marketing remark (699 chars)

    Large Cutchogue farmhouse w/ high ceilings, 1st fl. offers large open living/dining room, huge playroom/craft room, first floor laundry, office space and large separate den with wood burning stove, full bath, wall of closets. Second floor offers large primary bedroom with high ceilings, 2 additional bedrooms and full bath. Inground pool, large patio area, huge approx. 1200 sq. ft. accessory building w/large overhead door, 2.06 acres (150 x 600) zoned AC Agriculture Conservation (Residential). This complete package awaits your personal touches w/large rooms, classic details, endless possibilities w/outbuilding & property., Additional information: Appearance:Great,Interior Features:Lr/Dr

24. 2023-07-15
    historical $1,100,000 699-char remark

    Show marketing remark (699 chars)

    Large Cutchogue farmhouse w/ high ceilings, 1st fl. offers large open living/dining room, huge playroom/craft room, first floor laundry, office space and large separate den with wood burning stove, full bath, wall of closets. Second floor offers large primary bedroom with high ceilings, 2 additional bedrooms and full bath. Inground pool, large patio area, huge approx. 1200 sq. ft. accessory building w/large overhead door, 2.06 acres (150 x 600) zoned AC Agriculture Conservation (Residential). This complete package awaits your personal touches w/large rooms, classic details, endless possibilities w/outbuilding & property., Additional information: Appearance:Great,Interior Features:Lr/Dr

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $10,642 · $887/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $18,799 · $1,567/mo
• Expected delta: +$8,157/yr (+$680/mo · 76.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $229,233
• − Mortgage interest: −$89,345
• − Property taxes: −$10,642
• − Insurance: −$7,975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$18,339
• − Management: −$18,339
• − Depreciation: −$46,400
• Taxable income: $38,194
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$9,166
• After-tax cash flow: $52,938/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mattituck-Cutchogue Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3600021
• Math proficiency: 69% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $84,164
• Composite: 61.4/100
• National rank: #765
• State rank: #127 of 590 in NY

Livability — Cutchogue

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #843
• US rank: #16353

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cutchogue, NY
• City population: 2,946
• Population (ZIP): 2,946

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Scotch-Irish 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Other Indo-European 5% German/W. Germanic 3% Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.82%
• Current HPI: 467.3019
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+45.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-01 Listed $1,595,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-18 Coming Soon $1,595,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-18 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-18 Coming Soon $1,595,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-11 Sold (Public Records) $909,000 Public Records
• 2024-02-08 Sold (MLS) $909,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-11 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-07 Price Changed $999,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-07-22 Listed $1,100,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-07-15 Coming Soon $1,100,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $10,642 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.