8739 Ute Creek Ln · The Woodlands, TX 77354

$310,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,846 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 41 Days on market

Built 2021 8,350 sqft lot $168/sqft · at area comps Est $317k · at est. $85/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.4/15.0
• Cash flow +6.0/30.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This charming one story home is move-in ready with all appliances, a whole house Generac Generator, and partial furnishings included. Featuring vinyl plank flooring throughout...NO CARPET. 3 spacious bedrooms, and 2 full baths. The covered back patio overlooks a large fenced backyard. A light neutral color scheme and abundant windows create a bright living space. The open concept kitchen, dining, and family room is perfect for gatherings, with a large granite island, counter stools, and plenty of counter space with under cabinet lighting for easy meal preparation. New refrigerator, W/D is included. The Primary suite has a spacious walk in closet and ceiling fan. The Primary bath has double sink vanity, a large walk in shower, a ceiling fan, and a deep linen & storage closet. Two bedrooms share a full bath in the front of the home. Beautifully landscaped front yard has solar landscape lighting. Enjoy the recreational center w/ pool, playground and 4 min from HEB, dining & shopping.

Key facts

• Open concept kitchen
• Large granite island
• Covered back patio

Tags

• WHOLE HOUSE GENERAC GENERATOR
• COVERED BACK PATIO
• LARGE FENCED BACKYARD
• OPEN CONCEPT KITCHEN
• LARGE GRANITE ISLAND
• UNDER CABINET LIGHTING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $310k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-587 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $206k (33.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $248k (19.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $206k (33.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 2.3% in The Woodlands — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in TX, #47 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living D-.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Bear Branch El (math 48% / reading 51%, grade D, #865 of 4,322 statewide, top 21%, 579 students, 28% FRL); Bear Branch J H (math 44% / reading 46%, grade D, #479 of 1,662 statewide, top 29%, 1,076 students, 37% FRL); Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1622 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $33k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $31k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$53k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($301k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $206,332 (33.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.11%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $316,682
• List price: $310,000
• Delta: -2.11%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8739 Ute Creek Ln	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,846 (0%)	0mo	$310,000	$168	100
10027 Cimarron Canyon Ln	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,848 (+0%)	9mo	$260,000	$141	85
9038 Cimarron River Ln	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,922 (+4%)	3mo	$329,000	$171	81
10007 Cimarron Canyon Ln	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,760 (-5%)	5mo	$309,500	$176	79
8641 Cimarron Mesa Ln	0.08mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,962 (+6%)	7mo	$290,000	$148	75
3812 Cimarron Gap Ln	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,687 (-9%)	9mo	$254,990	$151	70
7415 Charred Pine Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,810 (-2%)	7mo	$335,000	$185	68
7402 Nickaburr Creek Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,824 (-1%)	6mo	$339,999	$186	65
8918 James Ct	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,974 (+7%)	7mo	$534,499	$271	61
7407 Nickaburr Creek Dr	0.56mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,874 (+2%)	4mo	$399,000	$213	60
7406 Revelwood Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,650 (-11%)	0mo	$339,900	$206	56
7219 Nickaburr Creek Dr	0.70mi	3/2.5	1,780 (-4%)	8mo	$349,999	$197	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.44×
• Total profit: $125,225
• Equity at exit: $279,273

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.46×
• Total profit: $386,894
• Equity at exit: $602,262

Cash invested: $86,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1622
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,483 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,626
• Tax from tax record: −$708 /mo · $8,500/yr
• Insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$85
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$521
• Net cashflow: $-587

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,226

Max offer price $206,332

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-411	-5% $-499	+0% $-587	+5% $-675	+10% $-762
Rent	-10% $-783	-5% $-685	+0% $-587	+5% $-489	+10% $-391
Rate	-1.0pp $-431	-0.5pp $-508	base $-587	+0.5pp $-667	+1.0pp $-749

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,500
• Closing costs: $9,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
33200 Forest West St Magnolia, TX	1.0–3.0	1.5–2.5	1307	$4,065	$3.11	0d	22	0.94mi
30685 FM 2978 Rd Magnolia, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–4.0	1175	$1,747	$1.49	0d	46	1.23mi
7210 Alava Dr Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	2031	$2,235	$1.10	45d	1	1.25mi
10333 Research Forest Dr Unit 3047 Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1377	$2,383	$1.73	12d	1	1.35mi
10333 Research Forest Dr Unit 10366 Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1377	$2,372	$1.72	12d	1	1.48mi
10333 Research Forest Dr Unit 3228 Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1377	$2,332	$1.69	0d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $85 · $1,020/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-17
   status Pending 1007-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1007 chars)

   This charming one story home is move-in ready with all appliances, a whole house Generac Generator, and partial furnishings included. Featuring vinyl plank flooring throughout...NO CARPET. 3 spacious bedrooms, and 2 full baths. The covered back patio overlooks a large fenced backyard. A light neutral color scheme and abundant windows create a bright living space. The open concept kitchen, dining, and family room is perfect for gatherings, with a large granite island, counter stools, and plenty of counter space with under cabinet lighting for easy meal preparation. New refrigerator, W/D is included. The Primary suite has a spacious walk in closet and ceiling fan. The Primary bath has double sink vanity, a large walk in shower, a ceiling fan, and a deep linen & storage closet. Two bedrooms share a full bath in the front of the home. Beautifully landscaped front yard has solar landscape lighting. Enjoy the recreational center w/ pool, playground and 4 min from HEB, dining & shopping.

2. 2026-05-10
   status Pending 1007-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1007 chars)

   This charming one story home is move-in ready with all appliances, a whole house Generac Generator, and partial furnishings included. Featuring vinyl plank flooring throughout...NO CARPET. 3 spacious bedrooms, and 2 full baths. The covered back patio overlooks a large fenced backyard. A light neutral color scheme and abundant windows create a bright living space. The open concept kitchen, dining, and family room is perfect for gatherings, with a large granite island, counter stools, and plenty of counter space with under cabinet lighting for easy meal preparation. New refrigerator, W/D is included. The Primary suite has a spacious walk in closet and ceiling fan. The Primary bath has double sink vanity, a large walk in shower, a ceiling fan, and a deep linen & storage closet. Two bedrooms share a full bath in the front of the home. Beautifully landscaped front yard has solar landscape lighting. Enjoy the recreational center w/ pool, playground and 4 min from HEB, dining & shopping.

3. 2026-05-09
   price $310,000 1007-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1007 chars)

   This charming one story home is move-in ready with all appliances, a whole house Generac Generator, and partial furnishings included. Featuring vinyl plank flooring throughout...NO CARPET. 3 spacious bedrooms, and 2 full baths. The covered back patio overlooks a large fenced backyard. A light neutral color scheme and abundant windows create a bright living space. The open concept kitchen, dining, and family room is perfect for gatherings, with a large granite island, counter stools, and plenty of counter space with under cabinet lighting for easy meal preparation. New refrigerator, W/D is included. The Primary suite has a spacious walk in closet and ceiling fan. The Primary bath has double sink vanity, a large walk in shower, a ceiling fan, and a deep linen & storage closet. Two bedrooms share a full bath in the front of the home. Beautifully landscaped front yard has solar landscape lighting. Enjoy the recreational center w/ pool, playground and 4 min from HEB, dining & shopping.

4. 2026-05-04
   price $299,000 1007-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1007 chars)

   This charming one story home is move-in ready with all appliances, a whole house Generac Generator, and partial furnishings included. Featuring vinyl plank flooring throughout...NO CARPET. 3 spacious bedrooms, and 2 full baths. The covered back patio overlooks a large fenced backyard. A light neutral color scheme and abundant windows create a bright living space. The open concept kitchen, dining, and family room is perfect for gatherings, with a large granite island, counter stools, and plenty of counter space with under cabinet lighting for easy meal preparation. New refrigerator, W/D is included. The Primary suite has a spacious walk in closet and ceiling fan. The Primary bath has double sink vanity, a large walk in shower, a ceiling fan, and a deep linen & storage closet. Two bedrooms share a full bath in the front of the home. Beautifully landscaped front yard has solar landscape lighting. Enjoy the recreational center w/ pool, playground and 4 min from HEB, dining & shopping.

5. 2026-04-22
   price $320,000 1007-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1007 chars)

   This charming one story home is move-in ready with all appliances, a whole house Generac Generator, and partial furnishings included. Featuring vinyl plank flooring throughout...NO CARPET. 3 spacious bedrooms, and 2 full baths. The covered back patio overlooks a large fenced backyard. A light neutral color scheme and abundant windows create a bright living space. The open concept kitchen, dining, and family room is perfect for gatherings, with a large granite island, counter stools, and plenty of counter space with under cabinet lighting for easy meal preparation. New refrigerator, W/D is included. The Primary suite has a spacious walk in closet and ceiling fan. The Primary bath has double sink vanity, a large walk in shower, a ceiling fan, and a deep linen & storage closet. Two bedrooms share a full bath in the front of the home. Beautifully landscaped front yard has solar landscape lighting. Enjoy the recreational center w/ pool, playground and 4 min from HEB, dining & shopping.

6. 2026-04-06
   listed $345,000 Active 1007-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1007 chars)

   This charming one story home is move-in ready with all appliances, a whole house Generac Generator, and partial furnishings included. Featuring vinyl plank flooring throughout...NO CARPET. 3 spacious bedrooms, and 2 full baths. The covered back patio overlooks a large fenced backyard. A light neutral color scheme and abundant windows create a bright living space. The open concept kitchen, dining, and family room is perfect for gatherings, with a large granite island, counter stools, and plenty of counter space with under cabinet lighting for easy meal preparation. New refrigerator, W/D is included. The Primary suite has a spacious walk in closet and ceiling fan. The Primary bath has double sink vanity, a large walk in shower, a ceiling fan, and a deep linen & storage closet. Two bedrooms share a full bath in the front of the home. Beautifully landscaped front yard has solar landscape lighting. Enjoy the recreational center w/ pool, playground and 4 min from HEB, dining & shopping.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $8,500 · $708/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,500 · $708/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,793
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,365
• − Property taxes: −$8,500
• − Insurance: −$1,550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,383
• − Management: −$2,383
• − HOA: −$1,020
• − Depreciation: −$9,018
• Taxable loss: −$12,427
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,983
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,060/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — The Woodlands

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #47

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 106,505
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-10.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-10 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $310,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $299,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $320,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-06 Listed $345,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+40.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,500 · -1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.