10715 Weatherby Ave · Flagler Estates, FL 32145

$235,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,188 sqft · Manufactured public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1999 1.14 ac lot Est $234k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.1/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.3/15.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

JUST REDUCED!! JUST REDUCED!!Wonderful country living at its best!! Enjoy the 1999 Oakwood Double wide. This home is secluded and private. It also has a 12x24 workshop/storage and 12x16 screened room. Must see at this price!! Included are 2 refrigerators, washer/dryer, freezer, stove, venetian blinds, 2 ceiling fans, chandelier, and the workshop/storage has an air conditioner.

Key facts

• New hvac
• Designer vanities
• New cabinetry

Tags

• NEW HVAC
• UPDATED LIGHTING
• NEW CABINETRY
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• REMODELED BATHROOMS
• DESIGNER VANITIES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Unfurnished; Lot approximately 1.14 acres
• HOA & community: Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage
• Utilities: Private sewer; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Double wide manufactured home; One level
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Front porch; Rear porch; Shed(s); Workshop; Dirt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Breakfast nook; Ceiling fan(s); Primary bathroom with tub and shower; Split bedroom floorplan; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; In-unit laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-49 ($-594/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $226k (3.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $169k (28.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $169k (28.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#763 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• St. Johns (rural): math 75% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #2 of 73 in FL (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: South Woods Elementary School (math 51% / reading 46%, grade D, #1,152 of 2,144 statewide, top 55%, 689 students, 66% FRL); Gamble Rogers Middle School (math 61% / reading 55%, grade B, #151 of 571 statewide, top 27%, 925 students, 47% FRL); Pedro Menendez High School (math 31% / reading 54%, grade F, #264 of 667 statewide, top 41%, 1,519 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools average 51% FRL vs 20% district-wide (31 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 50% at this address vs 74% district-wide (-24 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the St. Johns average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 234 active listings in the ZIP; 5,575 units permitted in St. Johns County in 2024 (584 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $25k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• St. Johns County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $66k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $98k; list at $235k implies a 141% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $169,256 (28.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.90%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $234,036
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10465 Underwood Ave	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+2%)	7mo	$240,000	$197	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.90×
• Total profit: $124,715
• Equity at exit: $211,707

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.62×
• Total profit: $369,504
• Equity at exit: $456,553

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32145

• Home prices YoY: 19.1%
• Active inventory: 234
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,693 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$56 /mo · $676/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$355
• Net cashflow: $-49

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,755

Max offer price $226,257

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $235,000 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $235,000 Active 9 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $235,000 Active 8 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $235,000 Active 7 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $235,000 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $235,000 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   remarks 699-char remark
8. 2026-06-09
   listed $235,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $676 · $56/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,950 · $163/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,274/yr (+$106/mo · 188.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,311
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$676
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,625
• − Management: −$1,625
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable loss: −$4,790
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,150
• After-tax cash flow: $556/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Johns
• NCES district ID: 1201740
• Math proficiency: 75% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $66,842
• Composite: 64.31/100
• National rank: #556
• State rank: #2 of 73 in FL

Livability — Flagler Estates

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #763
• US rank: #16863

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Flagler Estates, FL
• Population (ZIP): 5,750

Population outlook (St. Johns County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 303,941 people
• By 2030: 342,590 · +12.7%
• By 2040: 417,328 · +37.3%
• By 2050: 487,011 · +60.2%
• By 2075: 635,395 · +109.1%
• By 2100: 717,469 · +136.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Two or more races 16% Hispanic / Latino 9% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Estonian 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Johns

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.4) · D 33.9% · R 65.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: -31.6pp · 2024: -31.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.4 2020: R+26.7 2016: R+33.4 2012: R+37.8 2008: R+31.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 40.24%
• Current HPI: 250.8035
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+113.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $235,000 realMLS
• 2008-02-04 Sold (Public Records) $97,500 Public Records
• 2007-06-14 Sold (Public Records) $44,000 Public Records
• 2006-10-08 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2006-04-10 Listed $110,000 realMLS

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $676 · +13.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.